Cairo -
In the first comment after Ethiopia announced its intention to start the process of the third filling of the Renaissance Dam reservoir next August and September, and the possibility of harming the downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said that his country did not enter into a struggle to increase its share of water. Nile.
While attending the activities of the first African Medical Exhibition and Conference in Cairo, on Sunday, Sisi said, directing his speech to the African "brothers", that "Egypt's share is 55 billion cubic meters, and it has not changed over the past years, since its population was between 3 to 4 million people." So far, we have not entered into a conflict with our African brothers in order to increase this share."
Al-Sisi added, "But we have worked to maximize our resources (of water) and preserve every drop of water, without exaggeration, and I am not saying this for political reasons, but in order to say that the challenge is an opportunity and not an obstacle to overcome it, so we have implemented water treatment programs with advanced triple treatment." ".
He pointed out that the efforts made in this field are "in order to provide water to citizens that conforms to the standards of the World Health Organization, and to benefit from this water, making Egypt the first or second country in the world to benefit from water treatment and desalination for the benefit of its people."
Observers and analysts saw that Sisi's statements, in response to Addis Ababa's announcement of the start of the third filling process, differ from those in which Sisi previously warned against violating Egypt's water rights, and that all options are on the table if you take one drop from Egypt's share in the Nile waters, and this will be considered a transgression of the red lines. In Egypt, he will be met with an earthquake response that will destabilize the entire region.
This warning message was the strongest among a series of statements regarding the Renaissance Dam crisis, following the Egyptian Foreign Ministry’s announcement, in April 2021, that the Kinshasa meetings in the Democratic Republic of the Congo did not achieve progress, and did not lead to an agreement on re-launching the Renaissance Dam negotiations.
Rare warnings from Ethiopia
This comes after a rare statement last week from the Ethiopian side about the repercussions of the Renaissance Dam on Egypt and Sudan, where the director of the Renaissance Dam, "Kifli Horo" referred to Egypt and Sudan's fears of the negative effects of the filling operations, whose third phase is expected to begin in weeks.
The director of the Renaissance Dam acknowledged the possibility of Egypt and Sudan being affected by the filling operations, saying, "There may be side effects, we cannot deny this, but it is not a real harm. These side effects are during filling periods, and other than that during normal operating times, what enters (from water) It is what comes out."
According to Horo, the most that his country's government can offer is to "implement the project and fill it in stages to take into account the affairs of other countries (...) These are the guarantees that we have," declaring at the same time that the second turbine to produce electricity will begin within weeks.
Professor of Geology and Water Resources at Cairo University, Dr.
Abbas Sharaki: There is a severe violation of the Declaration of Principles of the Renaissance Dam with all its clauses by #Ethiopia# Evening pic.twitter.com/iaHsP84PkF
- Al Jazeera Mubasher (@ajmubasher) May 28, 2022
Egyptian responses
And local Egyptian news websites considered that the statements of the director of the Renaissance Dam project about the possibility of Egypt and Sudan being affected by the operations of filling the dam for the third time, as worrying, as it is the first time that an Ethiopian official has acknowledged this since the project began in 2011.
On the other hand, Abbas Sharaki, professor of geology and water resources at Cairo University, considered Horo's statements regarding "the possibility of harming Egypt and Sudan from the filling process" as undiplomatic and irresponsible.
Sharaki said in an interview with Al-Jazeera Mubasher that Egypt bears billions of dollars in losses due to the filling operations carried out by Ethiopia unilaterally, pointing to the identification of areas that are cultivated with some crops, such as rice, during the past years, as well as spending hundreds of millions of dollars on desalination projects. Sea water to mitigate the effects of the single fill by Ethiopia.
Addis Ababa insists on the third filling of the dam’s reservoir, even without an agreement, while Cairo and Khartoum insist on reaching an agreement that preserves their water facilities and ensures the continued flow of their annual quotas of the Nile waters, amounting to 55.5 billion cubic meters to Egypt - most of which are controlled by the agricultural sector - and 18 5 billion for Sudan.
“Between those who want to try, try” and “we did not enter into a confrontation to solve the crisis.” How do you see the contradiction of #Sisi's statements in dealing with the #Renaissance Dam crisis?
pic.twitter.com/vPWfcb6RjS
— Monitor Network (@RassdNewsN) June 5, 2022
From the military option to water desalination
Al-Sisi’s statements about focusing on maximizing water resources without addressing other options raised questions about Egypt’s surrender to Ethiopia’s measures, which it describes as unilateralism, or that it is one of those options referred to and the competition of time in providing water.
In his technical analysis, the Egyptian dam expert (professor of dam engineering in Malaysia) Mohamed Hafez believes that, "Very soon, with the filling of the saddle dam, Egypt will lose its military option forever, and for this reason Sisi's statements are nothing more than preparing the collective mind of the Egyptian state by closing the file (Egypt's share) and moving to the next stage. The desalination and treatment of water is massive, that is, living in a vast desert with as little fresh water as possible,” according to his description.
Hafez explained, in a statement to Al Jazeera Net, that Sisi's response to the recent Ethiopian statements, despite the hint that the two downstream countries may be harmed, is tantamount to acknowledging the surrender to the fait accompli, and saying that Egypt will become one of the first countries in the world in desalinating and treating water is an attempt to portray the defeat as a victory, As he put it.
Hafez went on to say that the most affected is Egypt, and Sudan does not share the extent of the damage;
Because it does not depend mainly on the waters of the Blue Nile, as is the case in Egypt, which depends 97% on the Nile to provide water, and does not need to spend billions of dollars to desalinate or treat water.
He pointed out that the cost of these projects will be at the expense of the state's general budget and from the citizen's pocket and his basic rights.
The largest sewage and desalination stations in the world
The cost of the “National Water Plan” in Egypt, which will run until 2037, is estimated at about $50 billion, in order to meet the water shortage in the country, according to statements by Minister of Irrigation Mohamed Abdel Atti during the Water Week conference held in the Lebanese capital Beirut in April 2019.
Water infrastructure requires investments estimated at $45 billion more than investments in basic projects currently, according to a 2018 report issued by the World Bank on infrastructure in Egypt.
The Egyptian Sovereign Fund intends to offer 5 water desalination plants in partnership with the private sector, to desalinate 3 million cubic meters per day, at an investment cost of $3 billion to diversify water sources, according to Karim Badr, Executive Director of the Egypt Sub-Fund for Utilities and Infrastructure of the Sovereign Fund of Egypt.
In September 2021, Egypt entered the Guinness Book of Records with 3 records regarding the construction of the largest water desalination plant in the world, the largest sludge treatment plant (sediment material resulting from sewage treatment), and the largest ozone production plant, according to the Middle East News Agency. (official).
In the same month, Sisi inaugurated the Bahr Al-Baqar wastewater treatment plant project, east of Port Said, at a cost of EGP 18 billion ($1.14 billion at the time), with a production capacity of 5.6 million cubic meters per day, becoming the largest triple-A water treatment plant in the world.
What Egypt provides from establishing these projects, according to Nader Nour El-Din, professor of land and water at the Faculty of Agriculture, Cairo University, is as follows: desalinating one billion cubic meters of sea water, and producing 5 billion of treated water from drains.
Ethiopian "Water Fund"
In his estimation, the Sudanese academic and researcher in African affairs, Mohamed Ahmed Dawina, believes that "the Renaissance Dam has become a reality, and if it weren't for some technical shortcomings, the filling would have been completed in all its stages, and it is clear that the downstream countries knew in advance that they could not do anything, not in terms of stopping work in it." The dam, or even obligating Ethiopia to sign an agreement restricting it with prior coordination in the future.”
Dhawena added, in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, that "since the start of negotiations between the upstream and downstream countries and the recognition of the dam in 2015 until today, the positions of Egypt and Sudan have been characterized by looseness and fragility in dealing with this file, as if the negotiations are a foregone conclusion, in front of Ethiopia's firm position, we have not witnessed Any stop or retreat from the specifications and construction of the dam, except for lack of funding or technical malfunctions.”
Concerning the secret of the solidity of the Ethiopian position, Dowena explained that Ethiopia derived its strength and determination from its negotiating position backed by an integrated persuasive scheme that puts the two countries before submission and surrender in the end, and from these negotiating positions:
The support and support of the international community, either for its interests or for Ethiopia's argument, which is based on the signing of the 2015 agreement between the three countries.
The support of the nine Nile Basin countries and their desire to benefit from the dam's electricity at reasonable prices, in addition to their desire to build dams in the future on the Nile.
In its secret meetings with the downstream countries, Ethiopia continued to follow the carrot and stick policy, by raising the paper for the re-division of the Nile waters, canceling the 1929 agreement and activating the Entebbe Agreement.
Ethiopia's conviction that Egypt and Sudan are unable to use military force and its alliance with major countries that have pledged protection, as well as the bias of the Horn of Africa countries.
The internal Ethiopian position and the moral commitment to the people who see the dam as the project of the economic century.
The companies financing the dam are global companies that have influence in the global market and are affiliated with influential countries regionally and internationally.
He considered that because of this, "we are facing a complete dam and the complete surrender of the downstream countries," but the expected disaster is that Ethiopia intends to build other dams on the course of the Blue Nile in the future, and this is what made Egypt think about alternatives to the Nile water, whether by desalinating the Red Sea or reviving the Jonglei Canal. in South Sudan, or be held captive in the hands of Ethiopia, which controls it like the International Monetary Fund controls poor countries.