Despite her awkward positions,
Turkey, which is present on all diplomatic fronts, cannot be bypassed
Kurdish People's Protection Units reject Turkish intervention in northern Syria.
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Between threats and escalating rhetoric, Turkey is keen to remain at the center of the international game without fearing compromising its winning cards and its objections, even if it comes to the point of disturbing its allies.
From the war in Ukraine and the sea lanes, to the expansion of NATO, the incursion into Iraq and soon in Syria, and the tension with neighboring Greece, Ankara is present in all regional files, which benefits its President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been in power since 2003 and is running for a new term next year in elections that seem Its results are uncertain.
From one file to another, he hits his hand on the table, stressing at the same time the security and interests of his country.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken warned that any Turkish operation in northern Syria, as suggested by Erdogan, to “cleanse” the border region from the presence of Kurdish fighters “would undermine regional stability,” but the matter stopped there.
A threat
The threat came at the height of the controversy over Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO, which is opposed by Ankara, which considers them harboring "terrorists" from the Kurdistan Workers' Party and its allies.
These Kurdish fighters are targeted by the military operation it intends to carry out in Syria with the aim of establishing a "security zone" 30 km wide along the Turkish border.
An attack has been underway since mid-April in northern Iraq for the same reasons.
Diplomatic opportunity
Yektan Turk Yilmaz, a researcher at the Central European University in Vienna, says that Erdogan is "trying to turn (the NATO issue) into a diplomatic opportunity."
"Sweden and Finland find themselves obliged to examine Turkey's sources of (concern).
This is in fact consistent with the right that Turkey demands to describe whoever it wants as a (terrorist).”
This method of establishing a presence on the international scene also has domestic political goals, a year before the upcoming presidential elections in June 2023, says Soner Cagaptay, a specialist on Turkey at The Washington Institute.
"Of course, Turkey has a legitimate concern about the PKK, the Kurdish People's Protection Units, and their ties to Sweden," he said, adding, "But even if (the Swedes) did not do everything (Erdogan) asked, he would end up declaring a victory that forced the Europeans to submit."
He added, "His image as a strong man will be enhanced throughout the world, and he will also benefit from it at the national level."
Analysts who spoke to Agence France-Presse also point to Turkey's hope to benefit from the NATO file in the matter of the US F-16 fighters, which it ordered and partially paid for.
But Washington suspended the contract after Ankara bought the Russian S-400 defense system.
The recent tension with Greece, a partner in NATO, but Erdogan accuses it of seeking to obstruct the F-16 file in Washington, is also part of the Turkish strategy.
annoying situation
"Erdogan sends a signal to (Joe) Biden: 'Let's talk about my planes being obstructed by the Senate,'" Soner Cagaptay said.
"His position is certainly disturbing, but his objections are often unfounded," said Didier Peillon, from the Institute of International and Strategic Relations in Paris. "After haggling, a settlement is finally found."
Is it possible to bypass the Turkish president, who has so far succeeded in maintaining relations with Kyiv, which owns Turkish drones, but without moving away from Moscow?
“With its impartiality, and even without significant progress, Turkey remains the trusted third party to mediate between Ukraine and Russia,” says Elizabeth Onenia of the University of Amsterdam.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will arrive in Turkey next Wednesday to discuss establishing "corridors" in the Black Sea for the export of Ukrainian grain.
Ankara has offered its help and its fleet, and at the moment Russia appears to be considering it.
This will be Lavrov's second visit after the talks in Antalya (southern) in March, which remains the only direct one with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmitro Kuleba since the start of the war.
• From the war in Ukraine and the sea lanes, to the expansion of NATO and the incursion into Iraq and soon in Syria, and the tension with neighboring Greece, Ankara is present in all regional files.
• Between threats and escalating rhetoric, Turkey is keen to remain at the heart of the international game without being afraid of compromising its winning cards and its objections, even if it comes to the point of disturbing its allies.
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