This is how the polls are in Andalusia: the PP, on the way to a historic victory in the traditional socialist barn

• GABRIELA GALARZA

  @ggsueiro

• VINCENT COLL

  @vtecoll

Updated Friday, June 3, 2022-01:59

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Andalusia begins its race to the polls this Friday and does so with a clear scenario for the

of Juanma Moreno, which is consolidated in the polls as the clear winner of the elections.

The current Andalusian president would obtain

according to the average of all the polls published to date.

A result that would not only allow him to revalidate his position for another four years, but would also mean an electoral turnaround after more than 35 years of socialist victories in this autonomous community.

EL MUNDO

has compiled all the surveys published since last December on the elections in Andalusia and all of them reflect an upward trend for the PP, which would grow by more than 15 points compared to the regional elections of 2018, in which Moreno was not the most voted, but Susana Díaz, although finally the socialists could not govern.

If the forecasts come true, the popular candidate would achieve political alternation in the community and the only question that would remain in the air is whether or not he will achieve the majority necessary to govern alone.

A good part of the forecasts agree that the Andalusian PP will depend on Vox to achieve an absolute majority and, possibly, to form a government.

However, two of the polls released this week paint a more optimistic picture for the

.

According to the vote estimate collected by the Sigma Dos survey for this newspaper, Juanma Moreno's party would be the most voted with

and a range of between 46 and 50 deputies, which could add up to 53 along with the seats of Citizens (2-3), placing the current government coalition just two votes from the

, marked in the 55 seats.

Along the same lines, the

predicts a more comfortable victory for the PP, which would obtain between 47 and 49 deputies (eight or six of the absolute majority) and 39.2% of the votes, 15 points above the PSOE, which would be the second force.

In both cases, Moreno could propose a minority government by adding more parliamentarians to the PP than all the leftist formations combined.

The analysis carried out by this newspaper includes 20 surveys published by 12 media outlets (some have published two in the last month) and carried out by 11 polling companies (there are companies that conduct surveys for various media).

The weighted average of the polls analyzed offers this result, from highest to lowest percentage of vote: PP (35.6%), PSOE (25.2%), VOX (15.3%), Por Andalucía (8.6% ), Adelante Andalucía (4.1%), Ciudadanos (4%) and Andaluces Levantados (0.4%).

The polls also reflect a loss of support in the progressive part due to the fragmentation of the left.

The PSOE, now headed by Juan Espadas, would face the second worst result of the party in the region.

Almost four years ago and under the leadership of Susana Díaz, the Socialists achieved 27.95% of the ballots.

This time the average of the polls give the former mayor of

25.2% of the vote.

In the parties that are presented as an alternative to the PSOE, the forecasts are not encouraging.

The rupture between

and Adelante Andalucía, the mark of the purple formation in the last Andalusian elections, is reflected in the polls.

If in 2018 Adelante Andalucía, the group led by

obtained 16.18% of the votes, in this new electoral appointment it would not exceed 4.7%.

As for the coalition

, which is supported by Yolanda Díaz and which brings together

, Podemos,

and

, the forecasts are not so obvious.

Although the group led by

experienced a rise in the polls since the beginning of May, the polls published in the last week are not so illuminating.

While the Sigma Dos survey gave it 10.5%, the one from Centra (Center for Andalusian Studies) barely gave it 6.6% in its latest barometer.

There are several polls that agree that Citizens will be left without representation in the regional Parliament.

The one that until now was a partner of the Government would go from having 21 attorneys to having none.

In the opposite case, one of the parties with the best vote forecast is Vox, as happened in

and that today could be crucial for the future of Andalusia.

The formation now headed by Macarena Olona could obtain up to 20 seats and 15% of the votes and rise as the third force in Parliament.

Even the CIS, which usually polls in the opposite direction to the average of private polls, gave yesterday's pre-election barometer a comfortable victory for the popular: with 35.6% of the support, the public body gave the PP an advantage of more than ten points over the PSOE (25.2%) and up to 49 seats.

The strong rise of Vox (15.3%; 17-21 seats) and the resistance of Ciudadanos closed the door in the CIS for the left to be able to articulate an alternative.

According to the public body's survey, Ciudadanos could be a key piece if Moreno tries to articulate a Government of the

alone.

The CIS gives the

an intention to vote of 4.1%, which would allow the party, despite the serious drop predicted by the survey, to have between one and three deputies in the Andalusian Parliament.

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