A question and answer on the source of his influence.. Qais Saeed among those who resented the previous ruling and relied on state agencies

Tunisia -

The most urgent question in the Tunisian file now is, "Where does Tunisian President Kais Saied derive his influence to pass his presidential decrees and orders and control the joints of the authorities in light of the opposition's accusation of tyranny?"

Since his extraordinary measures on July 25, 2021, Saeed - according to the opponents - has continued to seize power through controversial decrees;

He imposed a fait accompli, freezing parliament, suspending the constitution, changing the composition of the electoral commission, revising the law of the Supreme Judicial Council, and dismissing judges.

Despite the exacerbation of the financial crisis and doubts about the possibility of borrowing from the International Monetary Fund or global markets and the escalation of criticism at home and abroad, Qais Saeed remains the number one in the political equation, continuing to reproduce power according to his own perspective, indifferent neither to the opposition nor to the parties supporting it.

Supporters of President Kais Saied march in support of him in the capital, Tunis (Al-Jazeera)

What does Saeed base his supporters on?

In the current situation, Badr al-Din al-Qamudi, a leader in the People's Movement (one of the political parties supporting Qais Saied), believes that the Tunisian president still derives his source of strength from popular support - as confirmed by the results of opinion polls - in return for the decline of the image of those in power.

Al-Qamoudi - the suspended member of Parliament - confirms to Al-Jazeera Net that the secret of this popular support is due to resentment over the deteriorating political, economic and social conditions over the past decade, as the president's supporters believe that the assembly of powers in the hands of a "clean man" is better than sharing them among "corrupt".

And "no two dispute that the head of state, despite the crisis in the country, derives his influence from the popular legitimacy that was expressed in the protests rejecting the pre-July 25 rule," Al-Qamoudi says.

Al-Qamudi believes that unemployment, poverty, inflation, excessive indebtedness, failed policies and corruption were the main reasons for the rise of Qais Saeed's popularity after he removed the previous regime and raised the slogan of accountability and reform.

Despite the bad situation after 10 months of the president's actions, according to observers' estimates, Al-Qamoudi says that it is unfair to hold Saeed responsible for the consequences of the current crisis that is afflicting the country.

The darkening of the situation is caused - according to him - from the accumulations of the previous period, and it is not possible to carry out reforms to bring the country out of the dark tunnel overnight, with the continuing repercussions of Covid-19 and the Ukrainian war.

Al-Qamudi believes that July 25 was "a pivotal moment in the country's history to correct its course, considering that it was not only a political and legal station, but an economic and social turning point to reconsider the development process, reform state institutions, and hold the corrupt accountable."

Regardless of his popular influence, Saeed draws inspiration from those whom al-Qamudi described as loyal to the nation in state institutions who work to protect and support it in various ways, "in exchange for influential parties within the state working to obstruct its path, distort its image and strike the people's power with monopoly, raising prices and corruption," he said.

How does Said use the dismissal of judges to consolidate his ruling?

Despite the sharp criticism at home and abroad regarding the president’s recent decision to dismiss 57 judges on suspicion of corruption, Qamoudi understands Qais Saeed’s decision from the viewpoint that the judiciary “did not play” its role within the July 25 track in accounting and deciding corruption and terrorism cases, and needs to be reviewed.

But at the same time, he stressed that judges who have been labeled as corrupt enjoy the conditions of a fair trial, and that charges and what supports them enjoy without fabrication.

Said's decision to revise the law of the Supreme Judicial Council and dismiss 57 judges with their names published in the Official Gazette sparked widespread controversy, and Tunisians were divided between Mubarak for the move to "purify the judiciary", and opponents because it represented the "last nail" that hammers in the coffin of the independence of the judiciary, according to their description.

Jawhar bin Mubarak, a member of the "Citizens Against the Coup" initiative opposing President Qais Saeed, believes that his recent decision to dismiss 57 judges is unfair because he intends to control the judiciary directly.

Bin Mubarak goes on to say to Al Jazeera Net, "Qais Saeed has appointed himself as the country's judge, appointing and dismissing judges, and judging judges on suspicion, and this is in violation of the constitution and international standards."

How does Said relieve the pressures around him?

Jawhar bin Mubarak says that Saeed was able to rule alone, taking advantage of his position as president of the country and of his exceptional decrees, especially Decree (117) by which he seized all powers, and the decree by which he changed the composition of the electoral commission “to falsify its results,” and Decree (35) which “ The judges will intimidate him and open a wave of arrests and repression against his opponents."

Jawhar bin Mubarak expects the president to launch a campaign of arrests against his opponents for flirting with his supporters with the approach of the referendum on his new draft constitution on July 25, 2022, stressing that part of his supporters are waiting for arrests against some personalities;

Either in Ennahda or opposition forces like Citizens Against the Coup to support it.

He believes that the movement to dismiss judges is nothing but a vent from Kais Saied after the Labor Union and the deans of law faculties refused to participate in its advisory committees to prepare a new constitution, and the Labor Union (the largest labor organization) announced the general strike in the public service on July 16 next.

However, due to his exceptional decrees, the country's situation is worsening, its international isolation is worsening, and people's lives are becoming more bitter with the decline of the economy, high unemployment rates (16%), poverty and high prices, and the scarcity of medicines and goods, he says.

The Secretary-General of the Republican Party, Issam Chebbi, says that Saeed is left with nothing but the use of the state's security and military apparatus (Al-Jazeera)

Does Qais Saeed use state agencies to enhance his influence?

Despite his acknowledgment that Saeed still derives his influence from a popular incubator that has experienced disappointment due to the mistakes and stumbling blocks that the country has experienced during the past decade, Jawhar bin Mubarak adds that the president is charging his power from the solid organs of the state, such as the security and military institutions, not to mention some political forces.

In the opinion of the Secretary-General of the opposition Republican Party, Issam Chebbi, Kais Saied no longer has any strong popular support in light of the collapse of the situation as a result of his actions, and he is left with nothing but the use of state agencies as president.

He told Al Jazeera Net that "the security and military institutions are working with Qais Saeed."

Chebbi believes that the future is still in the hands of Tunisians who reject the authoritarian logic. He said that opposition forces such as the Ettakatol, the Labor Party, the Republican Party, the Democratic Current and the Qutb will launch a boycott campaign to thwart the referendum on the new constitution at the end of next month, in refusal to drag the country into tyranny.

What is the situation in Tunisia after the Said procedures?

Tunisia - which is facing difficulties in repaying its debts - is in difficult discussions with the IMF to obtain a new loan in exchange for costly and socially reforms aimed at enhancing its resources.

The Tunisian government has begun to gradually lift subsidies on fuel, and has repeatedly resorted to borrowing from local banks to meet its expenses.

The 2022 budget document, which was published by the government at the end of last year, stipulated seeking to borrow about 20 billion dinars (about $7 billion) to cover expenses and cash needs.

The Tunisian government expects the public debt to reach 82.6% of GDP, compared to 85.6% in 2021.