Statistics Sweden's last party sympathy survey this term shows large voter movements.
The Social Democrats are making strong progress and strengthening their position ahead of the forthcoming election campaign.
If today's Statistics Sweden were an election result, Magdalena Andersson could remain as Prime Minister, provided that she succeeds in getting a collaboration where both the Center Party and the Left Party can coexist.
The Social Democrats' rise since the last Statistics Sweden survey in November is 4.2 percentage points.
This increase is due to several things.
An important explanation is the change of party leader within the Social Democrats.
The Green Party's departure from the government in November has also made it easier for Magdalena Andersson to lead the government as she wishes.
Another explanation is the war in Ukraine.
It has focused on the government, which did not make any major mistakes during the crisis.
Instead, confidence in the Prime Minister has been strengthened.
Opinion gold status
The Social Democrats have thus acquired something of a golden position in terms of public opinion ahead of the forthcoming election campaign.
It has been a long time since the party was in such a favorable starting position for an election campaign.
With the rise of the Social Democrats, the red-green parties have also strengthened their grip on public opinion.
They now collect 51.1 percent of the voter support compared to the right-wing opposition's 46.9 percent.
So far, the opposition has not succeeded in exploiting societal problems to build public opinion around its policies.
This is remarkable considering that the Social Democrats have been in power since 2014. There is also no lack of societal problems, such as continued shootings, segregation and long care queues.
The Center Party - a concern
The Center Party's decline is a concern for Magdalena Andersson, despite the fact that many C-voters go to the Social Democrats.
A weaker center party will find it more difficult to cooperate and compromise with the Social Democrats after the election.
This is probably also the path that C-leader Annie Lööf wants to go.
However, it is likely to involve cooperation with the Left Party as well, which can be problematic for a bourgeois party such as the Center Party.
But despite the Center Party's key role, there may be completely different parties that decide the outcome of the election in September.
These are the two crisis parties, the Liberals and the Green Party.
Both are currently under parliamentary blockade and fighting for their political survival.
However, the Liberals are showing an upward trend.
Should the Liberals enter the Riksdag at the same time as the Green Party leaves, the M-leader Ulf Kristersson's chances of becoming prime minister will increase.
If both leave, or just the Liberals, it strengthens Magdalena Andersson's chances of winning the election.
It is thus set for a political thriller on election day on September 11 with these two parties fighting over the parliamentary blockade.
The war affects
So far, it is also obvious that the war in Ukraine has had significant repercussions in Swedish voter opinion.
The rise of the Social Democrats is an expression of this.
Almost all other parliamentary parties have backed down since the last survey in November.
The question, however, is how long the war effect will last and what awaits thereafter.
It will probably be a short but intense election campaign where other issues will also be important to voters.
Expect that integration policy and crime end up high on the voters' agenda, as well as healthcare and the climate.
Wallet issues may also play a central role in a situation where purchasing power is depleted due to rising inflation and record high electricity and fuel prices.
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The government's crisis management has increased support for the Social Democrats, according to political reporter Andreas Öbrink.
Photo: SVT / TT