[Global Times Comprehensive Report] "The EU made the greatest self-sacrifice and imposed the most severe economic sanctions on Russia." The New York Times commented on May 31.
Late the night before, EU leaders unexpectedly announced that EU member states had reached an agreement on the sixth round of sanctions against Russia that day, including the most controversial oil embargo against Russia. compromise.
Accordingly, the EU will gradually cut 75% of Russian oil imports, expanding to 90% by the end of the year.
Hungary, which had previously been the most opposed to the Russian oil embargo, was granted "complete immunity".
Brussels celebrated the conclusion of the sanctions package, saying it showed the EU's "solidarity", while Russia criticized the EU's "self-harm" move as a "serious lack of common sense and rationality" and said Rosneft would find other buyers.
The EU's forcible severing of its dependence on Russian oil is believed to not only hurt its own economy, but also have a strong impact on the global energy market.
On the 30th and 31st, international crude oil prices rose to the highest level in more than two months.
Chinese experts interviewed by a reporter from the Global Times believe that if the EU sanctions are implemented, the global oil market is bound to undergo a drastic adjustment and change the global energy supply and demand pattern.
"No shipping, no pipeline"
On May 30 and 31, a special EU summit was held in Brussels, and the quarrel over the Russian oil ban continued until late on the 30th.
The "Voice of America" said that the leaders of the EU member states unexpectedly reached an agreement on the first day of the meeting to stop the import of most Russian crude oil.
"The ban will immediately cover more than two-thirds of Russia's oil exports to the EU, and EU imports from Russia will be cut by 90% by the end of the year," European Council President Michel Michel tweeted.
He called it "the biggest pressure on Russia to end the war."
The US cable news network (CNN) reported on the 30th that Europe is the largest buyer of Russian energy, and its purchases account for half of Russia's oil exports.
According to Eurostat, Russian crude oil will account for 27% of total EU crude oil imports in 2021, of which about 35% will be transported to the EU via the Druzhba (also known as "Friendship") pipeline.
The northern route of the pipeline leads to Germany and Poland, and the southern route leads to landlocked Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
At a press conference after the first day of the meeting, European Commission President von der Leyen said that EU leaders had reached a consensus "in principle" on a new plan to sanction Russia, which would ban the use of tankers to import Russian oil.
As for the pipeline part, "Poland and Germany said they will stop using Russian oil by the end of the year, like other countries. According to this, we will cut 90% of Russian oil imports. The rest (Druzhba) ) 10% or 11% of imports covered by the southern route. We agree to a temporary exemption,” Von der Leyen said.
Many details of the ban are yet to be agreed, Reuters said.
The European Commission spokesman said on the 31st that the shipping ban on Russian oil will be implemented in stages.
According to reports, the EU's sixth round of sanctions against Russia also includes the exclusion of Russia's largest bank, Sberbank, from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Communication (SWIFT) system, a ban on the landing and dissemination of news from three Russian national media in the EU, and a ban EU companies insure Russian ships.
Michel also said the EU was ready to provide Ukraine with 9 billion euros, although it was unclear whether the money was a loan or a grant.
Russia reacts strongly to EU reaching a ban on Russian oil.
According to a report by RIA Novosti on the 31st, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ivanov said on the same day that the EU's policy towards Russia seriously lacks common sense and rationality.
The EU's line is to show its political solidarity with the Kyiv regime by strengthening illegal sanctions against Russia at all costs.
At the same time, the EU is prepared to ignore the billions of euros in damages to the citizens and businesses of its member states as a result of this short-sighted behavior.
"Russian oil will find other importers," Ulyanov, Russia's permanent representative in Vienna, tweeted. "Let me ask a provocative and irresponsible question in a private, informal way, If the EU is so eager to cut off most of Russia's oil supply by the end of the year, why couldn't Russia meet the Europeans' desire to cut off the supply sooner."
Sberbank said on the 31st that the EU sanctions have no impact on its business and will not change the status quo of international settlements, as previous US and UK sanctions have excluded the bank from SWIFT.
Agence France-Presse said the European Union had removed several Russian banks from SWIFT in March, but exempted Sberbank to allow EU companies to continue buying Russian oil and gas through the bank.
But now the EU has decided to drastically reduce its reliance on Russian energy, and Russia is also developing its domestic interbank transfer system.
Hungary gets 'full exemption'
"Agreement reached. Hungary is exempted from the oil embargo!" Hungarian Prime Minister Orban said in a video on social media on the evening of the 30th.
He said Europe was dancing on the brink of an economic crisis due to soaring energy prices, rising inflation and sanctions on Russia.
In this case, if Hungary were to stop Russian oil, the impact would be like an atomic bomb.
"But we managed to stop it. You can get a good night's sleep tonight."
"EU leaders surrender to Orban" - European "politics" website said dissatisfiedly on the 31st that Orban spent 26 days blocking the EU's ban on Russian oil and became "an EU country that did not actually participate in the ban", The compromise "saved Brussels from embarrassment".
The report also said that even without pressure from Hungary, the design of the embargo would give countries that have long relied on Russian oil supplies time to adjust, with the Czech Republic receiving an 18-month exemption from the ban on the resale of petroleum products, and Bulgaria at the end of 2024. It had previously been excluded from the embargo.
"Partial embargo on Russia: a deal no one wants," Germany's Handelsblatt said on the 31st. The agreement did not show the unity of the Europeans, but their quarrel.
The term "partial embargo" already suggests that EU views remain divided.
The summit yielded only a simple statement of intent.
The misalignment of different national interests will resurface in the coming days in the sixth round of negotiations on the text of the sanctions law.
After the ban on Russian oil was reached, some were quick to come up with a bolder idea: a ban on Russian gas.
Estonian Prime Minister Karlas called on the European Union on the 31st to discuss a ban on Russian gas in the next round of sanctions, but was categorically opposed by Austrian Prime Minister Nehamer.
Dutch Prime Minister Rutte said on the 30th: "Myself and others implored tonight that when we formulate the seventh round (sanctions against Russia) plan, we should first have a preliminary debate on all technical details."
America could be the big winner
As soon as the EU reached a consensus on the Russian oil embargo, international oil prices rose again.
On the 31st, the price of WIT U.S. crude oil futures rose to $118/barrel, and the price of Brent crude oil rose to $124/barrel.
According to a report by RIA Novosti on the 31st, Abramov, deputy chairman of the Economic Policy Committee of the Russian Federation Council (upper house of parliament), said that Russian oil can find markets in Asia and Africa.
Even at a discounted price, Russia's budget revenue will not be affected.
He believes that the EU's decision to impose an oil embargo on Russia is a "self-mutilation" move and is "seasonal". "When the autumn comes, the EU may re-examine this decision."
"India is buying Russian oil frantically," Reuters said on the 30th. Relevant data show that since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in February this year, India has purchased 34 million barrels of discounted Russian oil, of which more than 24 million barrels in May alone. This is 25 times the average monthly purchases last year.
In June, Russia will also supply about 28 million barrels of oil to India.
The British "Guardian" said on the 31st that economists warned that the surge in oil prices will benefit Russia in the short term, and the lengthy discussion of the EU sanctions on the measures also gave Russia time to find other buyers.
Han Xiaoping, chief information officer of China Energy Network, said in an interview with a reporter from the Global Times on the 31st that it is irrational for the EU to categorically issue a ban out of political stance and regardless of its long-term dependence with Russia in the energy market, and the ban can be maintained. It remains to be seen when, or how far it can go.
He believes that based on the current global oil supply, it is difficult for the EU to find sufficient alternative supply in other markets.
Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, told the Global Times reporter that oil trade needs hardware support such as pipelines and port facilities. Therefore, in the short term, there are many objective conditions restricting the transition between the EU and Russia in terms of supply and demand, and the two sides are switching markets. In the process, the global supply chain will be disrupted.
At present, the EU will seek new sources of oil, and countries with relatively complete oil supply infrastructure will become the first choice, such as the Middle East countries and the United States, especially the United States may become the big winner.
"U.S. shale oil cannot be pushed in the EU market because of its high cost. The EU's ban is in the favor of the United States." Lin Boqiang believes that in the short term, global energy prices will inevitably be pushed up, which will have a greater impact on China's imports and increase Imported inflationary pressures.
However, China is a coal-rich country, and stabilizing coal prices can effectively hedge against external pressures.
[Global Times special correspondent in Russia, Germany and Hungary Sui Xinzhaodong Li Zhen Global Times reporter Ni Hao Liu Yupeng]