The warming will lead to more and more intense rains and "if the cities are not ready, we will deplore even more deaths", warned in an interview with AFP Jose Marengo, research coordinator of the National Monitoring Center. and Brazil Natural Disaster Alert (CEMADEN).

QUESTION: Is the disaster in the state of Pernambuco, whose latest provisional official toll is 100 dead and 14 missing, linked to global warming?

ANSWER: Global warming is a long-term, slowly evolving process.

It cannot be attributed to an extreme, isolated event.

Rain and disasters are two different things.

In Recife, intense rains fell in areas near rivers and hills.

Any heavy rains in these areas would produce the same result: rivers washing away nearby homes, or landslides destroying everything.

Climate change may be responsible for the increase in extreme and violent rainfall observed not only in Brazil, but throughout the world.

But it is not the fault of climate change if the authorities allow construction in risk areas, where poor populations live who have nowhere to go.

It is an urbanization problem.

Q: What are the common points between the tragedy of Petropolis (233 dead in February), and that of Pernambuco?

A: "In Petropolis, there was an intense, unusual weather event, quite similar to that in the Recife region.

In both cases, heavy rains were forecast, but the problem was the vulnerability of people who lived in areas at risk.

If you watch videos of mudslides or overflowing rivers, it's hard to tell those in Pernambuco from those in Petropolis, because they are similar disasters.

Q: What can authorities do to better prevent such disasters?

A: "In Brazil, weather forecasts are reliable, but the problem lies with the weakest link in the chain, the vulnerability of the population.

It is a mistake to say that 'rain kills people'.

Rain itself does not kill.

What is deadly is the rain on homes located in risk areas.

Any construction on the side of a hill should be prohibited.

And if people are already living there, they must be removed from there and relocated to safer places, and not only after disasters.

Cities must organize themselves better, especially since rainfall is increasingly intense and violent with climate change, as we have seen in Pernambuco.

If the cities are not ready, we will mourn even more deaths.

The rainy season has only just begun in the northeast of Brazil, other extreme phenomena may still occur this year.

© 2022 AFP