French legislative elections 2022: what are the stakes for the different parties?
For each party, the stakes of the 2022 legislative elections are very different.
© Francois Mori/AP
Text by: Pierre Olivier Follow
4 mins
Since Monday, the official campaign for the legislative elections has started and the candidates' posters are flourishing on the panels.
For each party, the stakes are very different: will Emmanuel Macron keep the majority in the Assembly?
Will the union of the lefts become the main opposition force?
What next for Republicans?
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• LREM: obtain the majority
For the walkers and Emmanuel Macron, it is a legislative very different from that of 2017 which is announced.
Although re-elected, his victory in the presidential election in May did not arouse the same enthusiasm as five years ago.
“
It is no longer the young 39-year-old president who created the surprise and triggered a fairly easy victory in the legislative elections
”, notes the researcher at CNRS and Cevipof Bruno Cautrès.
He agrees: “
Today, the context is quite different.
Emmanuel Macron no longer surprises.
He has held power for five years and we can expect – in the event of a majority – a less overwhelming victory than in 2017.
”
However, obtaining this majority is essential for the executive in order to have its laws passed quickly.
LREM is therefore betting on an
alliance
with the Modem and the Horizons party of Edouard Philippe, grouped under the banner Together.
An alliance which is not without risk and which could lead to tensions in the parliamentary group as the succession of Emmanuel Macron whets appetites.
►Also read: Dissent in the legislative elections, shared poison for the Nupes and the majority
• Nupes: become the first opposition force
Four left formations grouped together, it's historic.
The rebels, ecologists, communists and socialists have reached an agreement with their New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes).
At the maneuver, we find Jean-Luc Mélenchon, comfortably 3rd in the presidential election.
Its objective is to impose itself as the main opposition force, provided of course to transform the trial by electing a significant number of deputies.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon also dreams of being Prime Minister in the event of an absolute majority in the Assembly.
Even if, in the Constitution, nothing would oblige Emmanuel Macron to appoint Jean-Luc Mélenchon to Matignon in the event of victory.
►To listen also: Guest of the Morning - Marie Toussaint (EELV): "Together, we can change the political course in this country"
Regardless, "
it's an extremely intelligent political operation
", underlines Jean Viard, sociologist at the CNRS.
“
With the legislative elections just after the presidential election, until now, the people who had supported the winner continued to support him.
And those who had lost were not going to vote.
There, Jean-Luc Mélenchon was able to remobilize the electorate, which should bring him a certain number of points.
Getting to Matignon is probably not his main objective
,” concludes the researcher.
• LR: Do not disappear
With a hundred deputies, the Republicans were until then the main opponents in number in the Assembly.
Today, considerably weakened by the catastrophic score of Valérie Pécresse in the presidential election as well as by the departure from government of the leader of their group in the Assembly, Damien Abad, it is
the survival of the group
as an opposition force that is stakes.
For LR, it is from the local anchoring of the party that salvation could come.
"
A good part of the candidates are outgoing deputies who should benefit from the 'outgoing bonus'
" remarks Bruno Cautrès.
Before qualifying: “
It is expected that the group of Republicans will continue to exist, but it could be amputated by 30 to 50% of its deputies according to estimates.
»
• RN: Remove Eric Zemmour
As for the Rassemblement National, despite the qualification of Marine Le Pen for the second round of the presidential election, the objective of these legislative elections appears much
less ambitious than that of the far left
.
For the RN, the hope lies first in the formation of a group in the Assembly to weigh more in the debates.
To do this, he will have to manage to elect 15 deputies while the party currently has only six.
The other major challenge for the RN is to get rid
of rival Eric Zemmour
by presenting deputies in all the constituencies against the Reconquest party!
A double-edged strategy that could divide the far-right vote, and ultimately weaken the RN.
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France
French legislative 2022
Emmanuel Macron
French politics