The situation is complicated for Boris Johnson, mired in the criticisms that follow the "Partygate".

The former leader of the British Conservative Party William Hague ruled on Tuesday that a motion of no confidence against the Prime Minister in the coming month was likely.

Far from putting an end to the scandal that has plagued the Conservative government for six months, the publication last week of an administrative report detailing the extent of breaches of anti-Covid rules at Downing Street has prompted new calls for the resignation, announced in dribs and drabs.

Deleterious atmosphere for BoJo within the party

It takes 54 letters from MPs to the party's '1922 committee' to trigger a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson.

About thirty have publicly called for his departure, but the procedure being secret, the political class is speculating as to whether the fateful number could be reached in the days to come, or even as soon as the parliamentarians return on Monday after the break in the celebrations of the 70 years of reign. of Elizabeth II.

"I think [the Conservatives] are headed for a vote either next week or towards the end of June," former Foreign Minister William Hague said on Times Radio.

“Many have taken the events of the past week to mean that the problems are over and that Boris is out of danger but that is not the mood in the Conservative Party,” added William Hague, party boss of 1997 to 2001.

Alcohol and vomiting

The report delivered by Sue Gray, a senior civil servant, is a damning dive into the parties organized in Downing Street during the confinements, synonymous with heavy sacrifices for the British.

He details a series of very alcoholic pots - until vomiting - with altercations, music, departure by back doors in the early morning and disrespect for the security or maintenance agents.

Boris Johnson, himself subject to a fine – unheard of for a Prime Minister in office – said he assumed “full responsibility for everything that happened” but felt he had to “continue” his work.

Two MPs joined the ranks of his critics on Tuesday: former minister Andrea Leadsom, who denounced “unacceptable errors of leadership”, and John Stevenson.

Upcoming partial legislative

The scandal has already dented Boris Johnson's long-stifled popularity, leading to heavy setbacks for the Tories in a local election in early May.

He maintained his position by notably highlighting his leading role in the Western response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Two partial legislative elections are scheduled for June 23, the next date likely to relaunch the revolt against the head of government.

If he is defeated by a motion of no confidence, an internal election will be held within the party to designate a new leader.

If he survives there, he cannot be dislodged for a year.

Conservatives in bad shape

It would not be out of business since a parliamentary inquiry must now determine, by the fall, if he lied to Parliament, which could push him to resign.

Long considered a machine for winning elections, Boris Johnson, Brexit champion, looks more and more like a foil after the "partygate" but also in a context of historic fall in the purchasing power of the British.

A recent survey by the YouGov institute suggests that in the event of current legislative elections, the Conservatives, in power for twelve years, would lose almost all of the constituencies in the popular regions seized from Labor in 2019, even that of Boris Johnson in the suburbs of London.

On the other hand, no obvious successor stands out, enough to encourage some elected officials to temporize before embarking on an internal election.


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