FAZ early thinkers: How do we Germans feel about military strength?

1. How long will Ukraine hold out in Donbass?

Sebastian Reuter

Editor on duty.

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1. How long will Ukraine hold out in Donbass?

According to Ukraine, the situation in the east of the country is “extremely bad”.

This is also due to a new Russian strategy.

Connection to Russia: 

In the Donbass, massive Russian attacks are increasingly threatening the Ukrainian defenders.

According to Ukrainian information on Thursday, 95 percent of the Luhansk administrative region has already been occupied by Russian troops.

Following the example of the so-called People's Republics in Donetsk and Luhansk, the Kremlin is already issuing passports to the residents of the Cherson and Zaporizhia regions - and is thus promoting the connection to Russia.

In addition, the ruble should quickly be introduced as a means of payment in the newly conquered areas.

New main focus: 

In its analysis of the war, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) recently assumed that the main focus of the Russian army was now the encirclement of smaller areas in the east of the country.

On the other hand, the Russian military apparently gave up on the goal of a large cauldron.

In order to make the offensive there a success, Russia had brought together significant numbers of troops, artillery and aircraft from other sectors of the front.

The speed with which the Russian side is gaining ground has recently increased.

So far, however, no major breakthrough has been seen.

Missed goals: 

In his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz confirmed the delivery of heavy weapons from Germany to Ukraine.

"You can rely on Germany," said the SPD politician.

He declared that Russian President Vladimir Putin had "missed all of his strategic goals".

The costs for Putin's apparatus of power are already considerable.

In his speech, Scholz also called for an order for a multipolar world.

There will be no such thing as a bipolar world dominated by the United States and China.

Scholz also resolutely opposed the idea that reducing globalization could move the world forward.

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2. The majority of Germans rely on deterrence

Under the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, German attitudes to security policy have changed.

But there are significant differences between West and East.

Military strength: 

In a survey conducted by the Allensbach Institute for Demoscopy on behalf of the FAZ, 56 percent of those surveyed are in favor of deterrence through their own military strength.

However, the differences in position in security policy between West and East Germany are considerable.

While 62 percent in the west rely on deterrence as the most effective means, in the east it is only 30 percent.

In West Germany, 62 percent are in favor of strengthening NATO troops, in East Germany it is only 29 percent.

New views: 

The repositioning of supporters of the Greens is also noteworthy.

Since the early 1980s, an overwhelming majority of Green Party supporters have been in favor of unilateral Western disarmament, but now 62 percent of this group see deterrence as the best form of defence.

The hope that unilateral preliminary work on disarmament promises success has shrunk among supporters of the Greens from 77 to 35 percent.