After Mali withdrew from it, what is the fate of the five Sahel group?

Nouakchott -

About 9 years ago, specifically in 2014, and on the initiative of former Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, a regional power was born consisting of 5 countries: Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Chad, called the G5 Sahel, In order to address common security challenges facing the region.

During the previous periods, this group faced great challenges because it did not receive sufficient funding or the full UN mandate, in addition to the series of coups witnessed by the member states, which reflected negatively on its performance, and it is now facing the biggest challenge it has known in its history after the withdrawal of Mali.

After Mali abandoned France, its colonial ally, and in its tense atmosphere due to bold military decisions, today it is boycotting its group in the five Sahel countries.

Mali, the most prominent member, left the unified regional framework to overcome common security concerns that it had long been fascinated by in particular, as it remained - for many years - its borders from the four sides on a hot plate due to the movements of armed groups active on its borders with Niger and Burkina Faso.

Reasons and situations

And the Malian government decided to withdraw from the group after it exceeded the date of its periodic conference by three months, which was supposed to be held in Mali and handed over to it the banner of leadership.

Mali rejected the pretext used by the members to oppose its presidency, which is linked to its controversial political situation in the region for a long time, and Mali does not hide its fear that this opposition is linked to countries outside the region that target it and seek to isolate it.

This financial decision was met with European and international regret, accelerated movements, and divergent positions from within the alliance itself. At a time when Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani sought to avoid the situation and sent his Foreign Minister Mohamed Salem Ould Marzouk to Bamako, and the head of the Military Council in Chad Mohamed Idriss Deby acted with optimism and sent messages Reassurance to transitional president Asimi Guetta, Niger's President Mohamed Bazoum was pessimistic and called the group dead, while leaders in Burkina Faso remained silent.

Will this be the end of the immature regional power?

Or will regional moves and repeated international calls save the group from imminent death?

Imminent dangers

The Sahel Group has a joint development plan that includes dozens of diverse and integrated projects that it presented to donors during a summit in Nouakchott in 2018, in which donors pledged about one and a half billion dollars, but the failure to implement those pledges stood in the way of achieving development projects.

At the same time, a solid approach based on military cooperation and information exchange was developed.

The headquarters of the Group of Five Sahel countries in the Mauritanian capital, Nouakchott (Al Jazeera)

In this context, Mohamed Abdullah Taleb Abedi, former director of the State Security Service in Mauritania and official of the "Al-Dar" Center for Security and Strategic Studies, said that Mali's withdrawal "will undoubtedly lead to the suspension of many development projects, in addition to paralyzing the joint force that was established between countries to combat groups." armed forces, which had the power to monitor the territory of the member states.

He added in an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera Net that "imminent dangers will mainly affect the three-border area: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, following the absence of coordination, information exchange and joint operations, as these groups began to take advantage of the situation to extend their control over the region, displacing the population and imposing royalties."

As for journalist Mahfoudh Al-Salik, who specializes in African affairs, he believes that the group has crystallized a common development vision that takes the developmental, economic and social dimension as one of the main entrances to confronting the growing violence in the region, based on the principle of "no stability without development."

He added, "Despite the implementation of a number of field military operations by its joint force on the border triangle between Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, the performance in general, developmentally and militarily, remained limited as a result of the limited means and capabilities."

big challenge

After Mali's withdrawal, the group is now facing the biggest challenge in its history, as it is threatened with disintegration, and there is international fear that this will be the end of the dream of the most important regional framework on which great hopes were attached in the development and security fields in the Sahel region.

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Ould Salek believes that there are two main dimensions that govern the fate of the Five Sahel Group, the first of which is internal self-relevance to the member states, and their willingness to search for self-means and machines to implement their development policies and military power strategies.

The second dimension is international, related to international partners and their willingness to finance this regional organization, especially since it is the subject of increasing international attention, and because security is a key entry point for achieving any investment in the region, or the success of any partnership with it.

Mediation Nouakchott

Mauritania, the permanent headquarters of the "G5 Sahel", did not find a justification for Mali's withdrawal, and sought to bypass the challenges and kept its flag raised in the middle of the group's flags at the headquarters. It is still problematic."

Although the success of Nouakchott and N'Djamena in persuading Mali to back down is one of the possible scenarios, it - according to Ould Salek - "may cause the anger of Niger, which does not hide its opposition to the coup and military coups in Mali, and its president, Mohamed Bazoum, declared that the Sahel group is dead."

If it does not succeed, Ould Salek says, Mali will remain withdrawn, and Niger may withdraw as well if it continues to adopt the insignificance of the group, and thus we are facing the disintegration of the group, especially in light of the lack of enthusiasm in Burkina Faso.

He continues, "There is a third scenario, which is that the group is transformed into a broader regional alliance that includes countries that face the same concerns and challenges, and fear that armed violence will reach them more than what is happening now, such as Togo, Benin and Ivory Coast."

positive signs

Various parties, including regional and partially international ones, are seeking to return Mali to the group, and Mauritania is considered the closest to taking the initiative due to its close relationship with Mali and the various countries of the West African region in general.

Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, the former director of security, Mohamed Abdullah Al-Talib Obeidi, seems optimistic, as he considers that Mauritania enjoys great influence in Mali due to the facilities it provided to it following the blockade imposed by the "ECOWAS" group, and after it sent its foreign minister to Bamako, it seems that This led to the freezing of Mali's decision to withdraw from the group. It was noted that despite the announcement of the withdrawal, Mali's representatives are still carrying out their duties in the various bodies.

While persuading Mali to reverse its decision remains one of the most prominent challenges now facing the Sahel Group of Five, the challenges are multiplied in the group in light of the great economic and social repercussions of the Corona pandemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the specter of famine threatening the region.