Finally, a green light appeared at the end of the tunnel of the political process in Iraq after several months of political obstruction and internal division that struck Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish homes over the map of forming the new government, following the counting of the results of last October’s elections, which led to the loss of powerful traditional forces and the rise of other forces.

This remarkable development was represented in the announcement by the President of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, Nechirvan Barzani - during a visit to Sulaymaniyah province last Sunday - that a common ground had been reached between the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Massoud Barzani and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan led by Bafel Talabani to end the political crisis in the region, in a step that was quick to bless it. What is known as the "coordinating framework" (which includes the most prominent Shiite forces with the exception of the Sadrist movement).

Two opposing fronts

Two opposing fronts were formed within the Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish political house, the first of which carried the slogan of the majority and included the "Save the Nation" coalition, which includes the Sadrist movement, led by Muqtada al-Sadr, the Kurdistan Democratic Party, and the Sunni Sovereignty Alliance, which includes the "Tigmat" blocs led by Muhammad al-Halbousi and "Azm". It is led by Khamis al-Khanjar and has more than 170 seats in parliament, while the second front came with the slogan of consociationalism and consists of the coordination framework, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and some other blocs.

Like the division within the Shiite house, the Kurdish House witnessed a split and a political blockage after sharp differences between the Democratic and National Parties regarding the position of President of the Republic;

The Democratic Party demanded this position because it has the largest number of parliamentary seats for the Kurdish parties, at a time when the Kurdistan Union Party insists that the position be from its share, given the principle of sharing positions agreed upon since 2003, where the Democratic Party controls the positions of the region while they go Presidency of the Republic of the National Union.

Abdullah ruled out the collapse of the tripartite alliance between Barzani's party, al-Sadr and the Sunnis (Al-Jazeera)

Is "saving a homeland" collapse?

After Nechirvan Barzani's visit to Sulaymaniyah, Kurdish press sources indicated a semi-first agreement in which a kind of flexibility began between the two Kurdish parties, including concessions from each of them to reach a consensual candidate for the presidency.

And about the possibility that Nechirvan’s visit to Sulaymaniyah would be the beginning of the collapse of the tripartite alliance, Kurdish writer and political analyst Adalat Abdullah rules out that in the foreseeable future at least, saying, “The collapse of that alliance is tantamount to resolving the current political impasse in the interest of the coordination framework, and this is what the Sadrist movement has resisted so far. And confront it with full force."

Abdullah believes that the visit comes in response to international and specifically American pressures, especially after the report presented by the United Nations envoy to Iraq, Hennis Plasschaert to members of the UN Security Council last week, which criticized the region’s experience through a very negative image of it as a result of the existing political and partisan conflicts in the region. And its division into two spheres of influence is a threat to the entity of the region, and the party responsible for it are the two main ruling parties.

The Plasschaert report also refers to regional threats and the decline of the democratic experience and political freedoms, in addition to the need for Barzani's party to support other Kurdish parties, especially the Talabani party, to contain the emerging crisis that came against the background of Federal Court decisions that the region's oil contracts are unconstitutional, and obligating him to hand over oil to the federal government. .

All of these files come in conjunction with the economic and financial disputes that exist between Baghdad and Erbil over the budget, energy and oil files, and the Iraqi Ministry of Oil’s request for oil and gas companies operating in Kurdistan to sign new contracts with the state-owned Oil Marketing Company “SOMO” instead of the regional government, and the ministry appointed - According to press reports, the international law firm Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton has reached out to those firms to begin discussions to bring their operations into compliance with applicable Iraqi law.

Saleh: The Kurdistan Democratic Party is trying to obtain a Kurdish consensus to confront the decision of the Federal Court (Al-Jazeera)

Tehran effect

The head of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee in the Kurdistan Parliament, Representative Ali Hama Salih, agrees with Abdullah that the KDP is trying to obtain a general consensus within the Kurdish parties to confront and reject the Federal Court's decision.

Despite the recent measures of the Iraqi Ministry of Oil towards oil contracts in the region, what is most surprising for Saleh is that the ministry has not taken any serious step on the ground in this regard so far, expecting - in his speech to Al Jazeera Net - that no practical step will take place until the formation of the new Iraqi government. .

And about Tehran’s influence on Barzani’s visit, and the possibility that it pressured Erbil to reach an understanding with Sulaymaniyah away from al-Sadr, the Kurdish analyst - in his interview with Al-Jazeera Net - acknowledges that Iran plays a pivotal role in the developments of the political process and exerts various types of pressure to support and support its influence in Iraq.

He goes on to point out that Barzani's party is currently obstructing the path to passing this difficult stage that Iraq is going through because of its adherence to the claim for the post of President of the Republic, so there may be Iranian proposals regarding resolving differences with the National Union, resolving the file of the position of President of the Republic and reaching a common understanding.

Salman believes that Jaafar al-Sadr's passing as prime minister depends on passing the President of the Republic (Al-Jazeera)

Is it valid against the chest?

On the other hand, the Iraqi political analyst, Dr. Haider Salman, rules out that Barzani's visit will lead to consensus on renewing the mandate of the President of the Republic, Barham Salih, to be a settlement candidate within the Kurdish House in exchange for Jaafar al-Sadr to be the settlement candidate for the tripartite alliance for prime minister, and confirms that Jaafar al-Sadr's passing as prime minister. Ministers are completely dependent on the passing of the President of the Republic.

As for the leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, Aras Muhammad Agha, he acknowledges that the political blockage in the country can only be resolved by consensus, dialogue and negotiation between all political forces, as has been the case since 2003.” The key to the solution” of the Kurdish political impasse, which will pave the way for resolving other political differences in the country, whether Shiite or Sunni.

Agha expected that the political crisis would witness some kind of détente during the coming period (Al-Jazeera)

Agha expects that the political crisis will witness a kind of détente during the coming period after the agreement between the two Kurdish parties on many outstanding issues, most notably those related to the Kurdistan elections and the position of the President of the Republic, and the emergence of a kind of flexibility between them to resolve these differences.

For his part, a member of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Mahdi Abdul Karim, says that Nechirvan's visit to Sulaymaniyah is very important and helped to solve the problems inside the Kurdish house and the political blockage that exists in Iraq.

Abdul Karim: Nechirvan's visit to Sulaymaniyah helped solve the problems inside the Kurdish house (Al-Jazeera)

And Abdul Karim - in his speech to Al Jazeera Net - does not hide a discussion of a number of outstanding issues between his party and the National Union, the most prominent of which is related to the presidency, the oil and gas file, and the relationship between Erbil and Baghdad, and there will be discussions between the two political offices to resolve it, stressing the need for there to be a unified position for the house. Kurdish towards the outstanding problems with the federal government.

Although there is no official position within the Kurdish House regarding the position of the President of the Republic, and whether there will be a compromise candidate or not, well-informed Kurdish sources confirmed - to Al Jazeera Net - that the candidate will be acceptable to the Kurdish parties, with the Democratic Party accepting the nomination of Barham Salih on condition He obtained the support of the National Union Party to reject the decision of the Federal Court regarding the file and oil and gas contracts in the region.