Am Dienstag war es ein Vierteljahr her, dass Russlands Präsident Wladimir Putin seine „Spezialoperation“ gegen die Ukraine anordnete. Alles sollte schnell gehen, Kiew binnen Tagen fallen. Es kam anders, und laut dem exilrussischen Nachrichtenportal „Medusa“ ist im Machtapparat kaum jemand mehr mit dem Gang der Dinge zufrieden. Dort entwickelte sich demnach die Stimmung von Grausen angesichts der harten Sanktionen zu Beginn des Krieges Anfang März zu einer „patriotischen Aufwallung“ und Optimismus im April nun zurück zu überwiegendem Pessimismus.
Friedrich Schmidt
Political correspondent for Russia and the CIS in Moscow.
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The Kremlin still doesn't know how to end the war and at the same time "preserve Putin's rating", wrote the news portal - which in Russia can only be accessed via a VPN detour or Telegram - citing anonymous sources from the environment of the presidential administration and the government.
"Almost nobody" is satisfied with Putin: Business people and the government are dissatisfied that the president has not considered the extent of the sanctions and the consequences for the economy and is not taking any real steps towards peace.
The belligerent "hawks" are dissatisfied that the "special operation" is progressing slowly and is not being decisively pursued.
The Kremlin is still not ready for a general mobilization because most Russians support the "special operation" but do not want to fight themselves or send their relatives to the front.
Internal criticism of Putin
"Medusa's" sources even emphasized that there is increasing talk of a "post-Putin future," according to one interlocutor, "not in the sense of directly overthrowing Putin and preparing a conspiracy.
But there is an understanding or a wish that he will no longer be in charge of the state in the foreseeable future.” Another interviewee is quoted as saying that possible successors are being discussed behind closed doors in the Kremlin.
Putin always ignores such questions and two years ago he had the option to remain president until 2036.
Among the possible successors is Sergei Kiriyenko, the first deputy head of the presidential administration, who is said to be responsible for Donbass and who recently toured the occupied territories.
Kiriyenko and Viktor Solotov, the head of the national guard, are now in the "close circle" around Putin, which now includes "those who are taking part in the operation," according to a source of the news portal: "These people can use the 'red line' because everyone understands, according to Medusa's sources, that Putin will only withdraw from the presidency if his state of health seriously deteriorates (there are corresponding assumptions), which shows the dissatisfaction of the civil servants only in their conversations with each other;
work continues as usual.
In the absence of other major successes, this includes savoring the conquest of Mariupol in propaganda.
It is becoming increasingly clear that there is to be a "tribunal" with show trials against the prisoners made there, who are flatly defamed as "nationalists" and "Nazis".
On the state broadcaster Pervij Kanal, a moderator recently said about pictures of the fighters being taken prisoner from the site of the Azovstal steel plant, which was last held by Ukrainian forces, that the whole of Ukraine is "an equally miserable creature", even a "fake".
The same broadcaster presented prisoners who are allegedly being treated medically in the pro-Russian "Donetsk People's Republic" on the sickbed in violation of international martial law with names and clearly recognizable faces and forced them to make statements in which the men accused themselves.
Putin's criminal investigators are investigating them, and the Duma, the lower house, is demanding that "Nazis" be exempted from an exchange that Ukraine is hoping for "Azovstal" prisoners.
Russian propaganda calls for “denazification”
Statements by the secretary of the National Security Council (known as "Falcon") also promise toughness: "We have to eradicate Nazism 100 percent," said Nikolai Patrushev in an interview, "otherwise in a few years it will rear its head in an even more monstrous form." Patrushev compared the "denazification" of Ukraine - a goal stated by Putin in the raid - to the denazification of Nazi Germany.
“Our country set such goals in 1945, we are setting the same goals now when we rid Ukraine of neo-Nazism.” Patrushev was also asked about the protracted “special operation”.
"We're not chasing deadlines," he said.
All prisoners of "Azovstal" are held on the territory of the "Donetsk People's Republic", its "head" Denis Puschilin said on Monday, adding that an "international tribunal" is planned on the territory of the "republic".
Puschilin put the number of prisoners at 2,439;
among them are 78 women and a still to be clarified number of "foreign mercenaries".
The Interfax news agency quoted a "source familiar with the process of preparation of the tribunal" as saying that its "first stage" should take place in Mariupol, later stages in other places.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko supported the idea of a tribunal as "probably necessary".
Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, refers to questions about an exchange of prisoners to the Ministry of Defense;
however, Peskov has ruled out the possibility of exchanging the “Azovstal” prisoners for pro-Russian actor and Putin comrade Viktor Medvedchuk, who is being held in Ukraine and is the subject of speculation in Ukraine.
"Medvedchuk is a citizen of Ukraine, he has no connection with Russia and he is not a military man," Peskov said.