As during the April presidential election, three blocs share voting intentions for the legislative elections: Emmanuel Macron's presidential majority comes first with 28%, just ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon's Nupes (27%), all two being within the margin of error, followed by the National Rally of Marine Le Pen (21%), underlines the Ipsos/Cevipof poll for Le Monde.
The Les Républicains party comes in fourth position with 9% of voting intentions and Reconquête!, the party of far-right polemicist Eric Zemmour, comes in fifth position with 6%.
Based on these voting intentions, the seat projections grant an absolute majority to the presidential coalition (LREM/MoDem/Horizons/Agir), which would collect between 290 and 330 seats, the lower range being very close to the 289 elected representatives necessary for 'it can govern without allying itself with other formations.
The Nupes would become the second formation in the National Assembly with between 165 and 195 seats, ahead of LR which would retain 35 to 65 and the RN which would obtain between 20 and 45.
According to this survey, only half of French people are certain to vote in the first round of legislative elections (between 45 and 49%).
Five years ago these elections were marked by a historic abstention of more than 51.3% in the first round, and even 57.4% in the second round.
Voting intentions do not constitute a forecast of the outcome of the vote.
They give an indication of the balance of power and dynamics on the day of the survey.
This was carried out from May 16 to 19 with a sample of 11,247 people representative of the French population, registered on the electoral lists, aged 18 and over.
The margin of error is between 0.3 and 0.9%.
© 2022 AFP