On February 6, 2022, two weeks before the start of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, the Washington-based NATO think tank Atlantic Council published the report Global Strategy 2022: Countering Kremlin Aggression Today for Constructive Relationships Tomorrow.
“Washington’s goal should be to push the Russians out of eastern Ukraine,” the U.S.-Ukrainian section of the document reads.
The report examines the long-term strategy of the US and its allies to increase pressure and ultimately weaken Russia.
To do this, the authors propose two main areas of work: internal, with the opposition, and external, military - strengthening the NATO bloc on the borders of the Russian Federation.
“To effectively counter the Russian threat, the United States must establish clear red lines as a deterrent and be ready to act quickly when Moscow crosses them or poses such a threat,” the report says.
“Appropriate responses could include military, economic and diplomatic tools, depending on the breach.”
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Prophetic formulations
Exactly as it is written in the report, the United States and other unfriendly countries are now acting towards Russia.
Among other things, the report announced the expansion of personal sanctions and an increase in military assistance to Ukraine up to $1 billion a year.
“US policy towards Ukraine should help increase US military assistance and encourage additional assistance from other NATO members.
During the visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Washington in 2021, the United States announced an increase in military assistance to Ukraine by $60 million, the report says.
“It was a good gesture, but given the needs of Ukraine and the interests of the United States in stopping the Kremlin’s aggression, the amount of annual US assistance should increase from more than $275 million to $1 billion.”
After the start of a special military operation, the Senate allocates $ 800 million in direct military assistance to Kyiv every month.
As RT reported, at the end of April, Joe Biden asked Congress for another $33 billion in spending related to the crisis in Ukraine.
Ultimately, on May 20, the US Senate approved a $40 billion assistance package to the Ukrainian side. The media call the amount unprecedented and note that most of it will be spent on weapons.
Analysts at the Atlantic Council also suggested expanding the supply of anti-ship missiles, maritime drones, patrol boats and air defense systems to Ukraine.
Block faces
Part of the report is devoted to recommendations for NATO expansion near Russia's borders.
The authors of the report predict an increase in the presence of the alliance in the Black Sea and on the Polish border, in the area of the Suwalki corridor - a hypothetical line that could connect Belarus and the Kaliningrad region.
Poland's border with Lithuania runs along this corridor - NATO perceives it as strategically significant, wrote The Washington Post, because the transfer of the Suwalki corridor to Russian control means that the entire Baltic region will be cut off from the rest of Europe.
What happened then in reality almost completely repeats what was proposed in the report.
For example, on April 15, 2022, NATO ships entered the Baltic Sea for joint exercises.
Their appearance in the Black Sea was also discussed, but Turkey warned in advance that it would not let a single alliance ship through the Bosphorus.
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Militaristic statements were also made about Kaliningrad.
On May 15, the former Deputy Minister of Defense of Poland publicly proposed to "demilitarize Kaliningrad".
As RT reported, Romuald Sheremetyev compared the Kaliningrad region with a powder keg on which the North Atlantic Alliance sits.
Generous Support
In the preface to the report, one of its authors, former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, thanked the Future of Russia Foundation** for their support — without his "generous support" the report would not have been possible, Herbst wrote.
The Future of Russia Foundation (FRF) is based in London and used to be called Open Russia.
It was founded by the ex-owner of the Yukos oil company Mikhail Khodorkovsky *, who was convicted in Russia for fraud.
The Prigovor.ru portal provided RT with copies of the current FRF annual report.
According to him, in 2020 alone, the Khodorkovsky Future of Russia Foundation transferred £151,900 to the Atlantic Council as financial assistance.
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There is also confirmation of this on the website of the Atlantic Council: FRF is listed there in the list of sponsors who funded the analytical agency in amounts from $100,000 to $250,000.
Among the other sponsors of the Atlantic Council are the number one Ukrainian oligarchs and number two Ukrainian Forbes - Rinat Akhmetov and Viktor Pinchuk.
Akhmetov's main asset, System Capital Management, donates between $500,000 and $999,000 annually to the Atlantic Council, according to the AC website.
And the Victor Pinchuk Foundation transfers from $249,000 to $500,000 a year.
What does Khodorkovsky have to do with it
But if the Ukrainian oligarchs' interest in seeking military aid for their country is understandable, Khodorkovsky's motivation seems less obvious.
But only for those who do not follow the media projects of the former oligarch.
Khodorkovsky took an active pro-Ukrainian stance in his media and on his YouTube channels, criticizing the actions of the Russian army and the country's top leadership.
As speakers for his media, he invites Ukrainian nationalists, Azov commanders and generally makes complimentary stories related to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
"In no case will we take Russian soldiers prisoner," Mamuka Mamulashvili, commander of the "Georgian Legion" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, says in an interview with the Khodorkovsky LIVE channel.
RT talked a lot about the activities of this formation - the "legionnaires", who were trained by British and American instructors, are known for their radical methods of warfare.
Because of this, in 2018, the unit was even going to be disbanded, but they remained part of the 54th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Mamulashvili, in the same interview, called a fake video of the execution of Russian prisoners of war, which spread across the network and became one of the evidence of war crimes of the Ukrainian army.
The American The New York Times established the authenticity of this video and noted that it was Russian prisoners of war that were captured on it.
Special Justice
Another example of a biased presentation of information is an interview with the commander of the Azov Kyiv SOF, Maxim Zhorin, who claims that “Russian prisoners are treated humanely everywhere.”
His words are refuted by the mentioned video recording of the execution of Russian soldiers with their hands tied behind their backs.
In parallel, another Khodorkovsky foundation, Justice for Journalists, began raising funds to sponsor Ukrainian media during the conflict.
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RT asked experts what goals Khodorkovsky is pursuing, acting as a promoter of Ukraine in the growing military conflict.
Opinions were divided.
Someone thought that the ex-owner of Yukos is not independent and manages other people's money, someone sees in Khodorkovsky's actions a desire to take revenge on the Kremlin for his criminal prosecution.
Recall that Khodorkovsky served time in Russia for fraud, and since 2015 he has been accused in absentia of organizing the murder of the mayor of Nefteyugansk.
Investigative journalist, founder of the portal "Sentence" Sergei Sokolov believes that Khodorkovsky is driven by a sense of revenge.
“He's just taking revenge.
He was exposed as a swindler and imprisoned.
And now all this is his personal vendetta against the President of Russia.
His main enemy is Vladimir Putin, Sokolov believes.
- And his attitude is very consistent with the attitude of the leaders of unfriendly countries.
Therefore, now he plays the role of such a policeman under the Gauleiter.
They don’t even ask him, but he pawns his teammates - the oligarchs of the Yeltsin era.
Political scientist Aleksey Martynov, director of the International Institute of Newest States, is sure that Khodorkovsky is not independent and implements other people's decisions.
“And who asks him if he wants to participate in this or not.
He is a dependent person, the political scientist is sure.
“I assume that he is a convenient front for financing destructive activities that they tried to pack in decent wrappers.
And no one asks where he got the money from.
It is known for certain that Khodorkovsky never spent any of his personal money on any public events.”
As RT previously wrote, for the functioning of Khodorkovsky's charitable organizations, a so-called endowment has been created - a special fund whose funds are invested in various assets, and investment income (interest) is spent on donations.
“He's just a handy tool.
At best, he passed the money through himself,” Martynov believes.
“I got it from the same British and American intelligence agencies behind Chatham House in the UK and the Atlantic Council in the US.”
Instruments of power
Candidate of political sciences, deputy director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts of the Peoples' Friendship University Pavel Feldman sees Khodorkovsky's interest in the fact that the latter always had ambitions and laid claim to power in Russia.
“Khodorkovsky has certain claims to power in Russia, although he has long fallen out of the current agenda.
Nevertheless, revanchist sentiments do not leave him: he considers himself a victim of the Russian authorities and does not leave the desire to get even for his prison term and generally realize gigantic political ambitions, ”Feldman told RT.
“He views the current socio-political situation in Russia as a springboard for the implementation of his plans.”
Ukraine, according to Feldman, is an instrument for the implementation of these plans.
Khodorkovsky wants to take advantage of his position in the country to get back into Russian politics.
“Any Ukrainian military successes are beneficial to Khodorkovsky, as they would upset the balance of trust between the Russian government and civil society,” Feldman continues.
“In the face of such an imbalance and a possible increase in protest moods, Khodorkovsky and opposition forces like him are counting on a window of opportunity to come to power.”
Another issue, Feldman elaborates, is that cooperation with countries that are perceived by most Russians as potential adversaries damages Khodorkovsky's image rather than increases his popularity.
The report of the Atlantic Council, summarizes Feldman, contributed to the decision on lend-lease and the expansion of military assistance to Ukraine.
The political scientist believes that such reports have a significant weight in decision-making by official Washington.
“Perhaps the writing of this report was not without the participation of political elites.
This is a well-known situation when intelligence officers, bureaucracy, military leadership delegate their own ideas to conditional public figures and experts, these public figures then pass off these ideas as their own, and the representatives of the special services already receive some kind of intellectual foundation on which to build their doctrines, Feldman notes.
“That is, they have the opportunity to refer to certain public opinions, although initially these opinions come from themselves.”
* Included in the register of individuals acting as a foreign agent, by decision of the Russian Ministry of Justice dated 05/20/2022.
** The Future of Russia Foundation (Future of Russia Foundation) was declared undesirable on the territory of the Russian Federation, decision of the Prosecutor General's Office dated 06/30/2021.