Nothing makes up for the absence of Ukraine

Wheat is affected by global chaos and cannot be dispensed with

Wheat became the most important global product after the war on Ukraine.

AFP

French researcher Sebastien Apis confirmed that wheat, "one of the main grains (in the food) of billions of people", is at the center of a conflict in world markets, which have been shaken by the war in Ukraine and its consequences.

He stressed that a "sustainable risk" hangs over the food security of fragile countries, in light of the sudden rise in prices and protection measures.

"Nothing makes up for Ukraine's absence," said Apis, who is the general director of the Agricultural Thinking Club (Demeter) and a researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS) in an interview with AFP.

• Can wheat be substituted?

-- It's very difficult.

Wheat is a major grain in the field of global food security, consumed by billions of people in the form of bread, flour or semolina.

Corn production is increasing, but it is used, mainly, for animal feed or for industrial needs.

Aside from the nutritional aspect, wheat remains a largely social and democratic product, allowing for low-cost, often subsidized food to be made.

But its prices have reached levels that make it unavailable to some countries, such as Lebanon or Yemen. Yes, because it is lacking, and we cannot produce wheat everywhere.

It is produced in a temperate climate, and there are only about 10 countries that produce it in abundance and can export, especially Russia, Ukraine, the United States and Australia.

In recent years, the United States has reduced its production, because it preferred corn and soybeans.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine and Russia became the largest wheat producing countries.

In recent years, Ukraine accounted for between 12 and 13 percent of the total world wheat exports.

• Is Ukraine's absence from the market sufficient to explain the situation?

-- We have a terrible geopolitical context, multilateralism is suffering a setback, in addition to disturbing climatic periods, severe droughts in the southern Mediterranean basin, and anxiety in the United States and Europe.

India, which enjoyed an exceptional harvest last year, and stocks that allowed it to put additional crops on the market, is suffering from a severe drought, and it will not be able to export.

Prices continue to rise, knowing that they were high before the war.

The price of wheat reached 440 euros per ton in Euronext a few days ago.

What is your response to India's announcement of banning its wheat exports?

-- India has been somewhat exaggerated to export 10 million tons this year.

The country had pledged to export between 3 and 3.5 million tons before imposing the ban, and therefore it must be known if it will honor its commitments.

The situation is tense because no country is able to export more than usual.

Russia might do that if it had a good harvest.

But even if the war stops, Ukraine will not immediately restore its production and export capacities.

• Will we reach the peak of the crisis before the American and European harvest this summer?

We face real and long-term risks.

We have not yet seen all the shocks because we have been witnessing in the world markets, for two months, the implementation of contracts signed before the Russian invasion.

Now we enter the difficult stage.

• What is the stock situation?

As for wheat, there are 270 million tons of stock on a planet that consumes 800 million tons annually.

More than half are in China, which has a year's worth of stock.

--

Excluding China, all grain stocks are at their lowest level in 25 years.

International solidarity and cooperation must be maintained.

Countries cannot be left in limbo about their food security, and at the same time, we should not be surprised that there are countries that put their national security above all else.

We must produce wherever we can produce, especially in Africa, but in order to achieve that we need peace and security.

There are 270 million tons of stock on a planet that consumes 800 million tons annually.

More than half are in China, which has a year's worth of stock.

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