Text / Pang Wuji

　　On the 20th, the central bank officially announced that the “interest rate” of mortgage loans was cut by 15 basis points.

This time, whether you have already bought a house or are planning to buy a house, this "gift package" will be available.

　　On the same day, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce the latest LPR. The one-year LPR was 3.7%, the same as the previous month; the 5-year LPR was 4.45%, down 15 basis points from the previous month.

　　There are four aspects of information worth paying attention to in this rate cut:

This is a rare "separate" rate cut for mortgages, and the 5-year LPR hits the largest drop in history

　　Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, pointed out that since the reform of the LPR quotation formation mechanism, for the first time, the 1-year LPR did not drop, and the 5-year LPR declined.

Since the LPR reform in August 2019, the LPR with a maturity of more than 5 years has been reduced a total of 5 times, with a total of 40 basis points, while the LPR with a 1-year period has been reduced a total of 8 times, with a reduction of 55 basis points.

This time, the targeted interest rate cut for housing loans, the policy's intention to "stabilize the property market" is clearly visible.

　　In addition, in the past few interest rate cuts, most of the LPRs over 5 years were cut by 5 basis points at a time. Even in April 2020, when the epidemic just broke out, the rate cut was only 10 basis points.

This time, a one-time reduction of 15 basis points was the largest drop in history.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, believes that this is the biggest positive for the property market in recent years.

After this "interest rate cut", the loan to buy the first home may welcome double benefits

　　This rate cut has a superimposed effect on the central bank's adjustment to the lower limit of the LPR interest rate for the first home 5 days ago.

　　Recently, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "Notice on Issues Concerning Adjustment of Differential Housing Credit Policies", which adjusted the lower limit of the interest rate of newly issued first-home commercial personal housing loans from LPR to LPR-20 basis points, and the second set of housing loans. The interest rate floor remains LPR + 60 basis points.

After this adjustment, according to the latest LPR calculation, the personal housing loan interest rate can be as low as 4.25% for the first home (compared to the maximum interest rate cut of 35 basis points in April), and 5.05% for the second home.

　　A few days ago, a report released by the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute pointed out that according to public information and feedback from some bank outlets, there are currently 20 first homes in 20 cities including Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Jinan, Qingdao, Zhengzhou, Suzhou, and Kunming. The minimum rate fell to 4.4%.

After this rate cut is implemented, the lowest interest rate for the first home in these cities is expected to follow up quickly, dropping to 4.25%.

All kinds of loan buyers can get interest discounts

　　The interest rate cut, whether new home buyers, or people who have already purchased a house and are repaying their loans; whether it is the first home or the second home, can enjoy interest discounts.

　　For newly issued commercial personal housing loans, the interest rate will be lowered by 15 basis points immediately, and the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission will adjust the lower limit of the interest rate of newly issued commercial personal housing loans at the national level from LPR to LPR-20BP on May 15. Resident families applying for housing loans will usher in double benefits, and resident families buying second homes will also benefit from it.

　　For existing commercial personal housing loans, it will also be reduced by 15 basis points after the re-pricing date of the interest rate agreed in the contract between the buyer and the commercial bank.

Based on the loan amount of 500,000 yuan, the term of 30 years, and the equal principal and interest repayment, the average monthly payment can be reduced by about 45 yuan, and the interest expense will be reduced by about 16,000 yuan in the next 30 years.

　　Liu Lijie, a market analyst at Shell Research Institute, said that if the commercial loan amount is 3 million yuan, the loan is 30 years, and the repayment method of equal principal and interest is calculated, the LPR will drop by 15 basis points, and the existing loan customers can save more than 3,000 yuan in mortgage loans per year; for new loan groups , considering that the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate can be reduced by 20 basis points on the basis of LPR, that is, the maximum interest rate cut is 35 basis points compared with April, and the annual mortgage repayment limit is about 7,500 yuan.

　　Wen Bin also believes that the interest rate of newly issued housing loans in some cities will be significantly lowered, which will help to reasonably meet the housing needs of residents.

For existing housing loans, the decline in LPR will reduce the cost of existing housing loans through loan re-pricing, which will play a bailout role and reduce the debt burden of residents, thereby saving more funds for consumption.

The policy is exhausted, and the property market is expected to bottom out and rebound

　　Recently, favorable policies in the property market have occurred frequently. Industry insiders believe that the policy is exhausted, and the property market is expected to bottom out.

　　Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Planning Institute, pointed out that cutting interest rates to reduce monthly payments is an important tool to boost sentiment for home buyers.

Judging from the real estate data in April, real estate sales fell sharply, exceeding expectations, dragging down the developer's capital chain, resulting in a sharp decline in land acquisition and construction, resulting in a downturn in the entire real estate chain.

The recovery of the demand side is the key to solving the problem.

The sharp reduction in the 5-year LPR is to quickly stabilize the demand side of the property market, create conditions for solving supply-side shocks (credit risk, difficult progress in mergers and acquisitions, land market cooling, insufficient construction, etc.), and avoid mutual deterioration of supply and demand.

　　Li Yujia believes that as the epidemic eases, in June, the economic and social cycle may be on the right track, and a package of policies will begin to take effect, including epidemic relief, local incentives for the property market, and central bank interest rate cuts.

He believes that the current bottom of house prices and sales has begun to appear, and the second half of the year will fully recover.

However, it is necessary to prevent the superposition of policies from forming resonance and lag effects, leading to a new round of housing price increases.

　　Wang Xiaoqiang, chief analyst of Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, pointed out that the reduction of LPR and the differentiated credit policy of the central bank play an important role in the stabilization of the market. One important reason for the lack of market momentum on the demand side of the current real estate market is the lack of market confidence. Substantial support for many times has played a good role in boosting the market confidence of home buyers.

With the support of loose credit, the speed of market stabilization will accelerate. It is expected that the demand accumulated after the epidemic situation improves will be gradually released, and the sales of the real estate market will gradually increase in the second half of the year.