Should this be seen as the beginning of a loss of Russian influence in Central Asia?

Since the outbreak of the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, Kazakhstan and other countries in the region have regularly been noted for their subtle distancing from their powerful ally and neighbor.

The Kazakh Ministry of Defense canceled a military parade on May 9 to celebrate Victory Day against Nazism, a commemoration of crucial importance in the eyes of Vladimir Putin.

In early March, in this authoritarian country where public gatherings are strictly regulated, pro-Ukraine demonstrations were authorized.

In addition, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have sent several tens of tonnes of humanitarian aid to kyiv, mainly medical equipment.

More importantly, these two countries, which have good relations with Ukraine, do not recognize the independence of the two self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.

"Kazakhstan had not already recognized the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Since then, relations with Russia have continued to deteriorate", recalls Michaël Levystone, researcher at Ifri, specialist in Central Asia. .

"Currently, Kazakhstanis are very worried about what is happening in Ukraine."

On the wrong side of the "Iron Curtain"

Due to their very strong security and economic relations with Moscow – Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are notably dependent on their imports of refined products from Russia – the Central Asian Republics are however careful not to go too far, content with a position of strict neutrality within international institutions.

None voted for UN General Assembly resolutions in March condemning the Russian invasion.

Moreover, Kazakhstan refused to support the exclusion of Moscow from the United Nations Human Rights Council.

"Of course, Russia wanted us to be more on its side. But Kazakhstan respects the territorial integrity of Ukraine", explained at the end of March Timur Suleimenov, director of the presidential administration, in an interview with the site of European information Euractiv, assuring that his country did not intend to be put in "the same basket" as Russia and to allow Moscow to circumvent Western sanctions.

Allied with Russia, Kazakhstan does not intend to find itself behind "a new 'iron curtain'", also assured the German press its Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Roman Vassilenko, calling on Westerners to invest in the country.

>> To see: "Central Asia, such a coveted region"

"For 30 years, Kazakhstan has built its foreign policy in such a way as not to lock itself into an exclusive partnership with the Russians or the Chinese. The war in Ukraine has confirmed this logic. The country's leading economic partner is is Europe, which is very unique in Central Asia", notes Michaël Levystone.

The fear of a "Ukrainian" scenario

Among supporters of Vladimir Putin, this lukewarmness of Kazakhstan, independent since 1991, has aroused indignation and violent verbal attacks since the outbreak of the war.

"Kazakh brothers, what is this ingratitude? Look carefully at Ukraine, think seriously," said Tigran Keossaïan, a pro-Kremlin Russian presenter, in particular in late April, on his YouTube channel. provoking the wrath of Kazakh diplomacy.

"For several years in Russia, there has been a discourse which consists in saying that the Kazakh state has never existed. Recently, a deputy of the Duma explained that Kazakhstan had to be denazified", explains Michaël Levystone.

Like Ukraine, a large Russian-speaking minority lives on Kazakh territory.

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Despite these tensions caused by the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow remains an essential partner for the countries of the region, particularly in terms of security.

In January, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was forced to call in troops from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to quell unprecedented civil unrest caused by a sharp rise in LPG prices. .

"Today, in the event of a crisis in Central Asia, it is Russia that intervenes. In the short term, it remains the great stabilizing power of the region", analyzes Michaël Levystone.

In particular for Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, which share the longest borders in Central Asia with Afghanistan, "a major threat to the security of these two countries, and of the region taken as a whole".

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