The decision of Prime Minister-designate, Fathi Bashagha, to enter the Libyan capital, Tripoli, on Monday, May 16, raises more than one question, especially since it took place less than a week after bloody confrontations in the Janzour area, southwest of Tripoli, which are armed confrontations between affiliated elements. The 55th Brigade, the Stabilization Support Agency, and the Fursan Janzour Brigade, which confirms that the security situation in the capital is unstable.

Numerous media reports indicate that Bashagha did not arrive in Tripoli until he opened channels of communication with various parties in the capital, especially the Al-Nawasi Brigade.

It seems that these preliminary contacts convinced Bashagha that it was time to enter Tripoli, and that his government should carry out its duties from the country's capital instead of residing in the east of the country.

It is now in the estimation of the Prime Minister-designate that he has supporters inside the capital, and that he can find sufficient protection from those supporters.

In fact, understandings between Bashagha and parties in Tripoli made the centralization of his government in the capital necessary, a concentration that would embarrass the national unity government and its head, Abdel Hamid al-Dabaiba.

There is no doubt that Pashaga's entry to Tripoli will be one of his most important fruits in the event that he successfully passes the embarrassment of the Dabaiba government and seeks to pull the rug out from under its feet, and give new legitimacy to his government.

Sudden entry and exit

It does not seem that the Prime Minister-designate, Bashagha, and the members of his government, when they landed in Tripoli, on the night of Monday, 16 May, were expecting that they would face a rapid and continuous military confrontation, or rather that the Al-Nawasi Brigade that shelters them would be attacked because the new guests were sheltering. With it, especially since the Minister of the Interior in his government, Issam Abu Zreba, had confirmed that the arrival of Bashagha has become surrounded by a general insurance process that is going well according to a drawn plan, giving assurances that legal persons in the government of Abdul Hamid al-Dabaiba will not be prosecuted for political reasons, and that he has become urgent on the government Libyan mandated to exercise its functions from Tripoli.

In these circumstances, and prior to Bashagha's arrival, some media outlets close to the second party reported that Abdul Hamid al-Dabaiba had given orders to the drones to be on alert and to remain on standby for any emergency.

At dawn on Tuesday, May 17, the sounds of cannons resulting from violent confrontations shook the Mansoura and Souk al-Thath areas in the capital, Tripoli, and the echo of heavy weapons in the streets of the Libyan capital, reminding its residents of memories of the violence and civil war that the country suffered through for years.

The siege of the headquarters in which Bashagha was housed caused his exodus from Tripoli and his swift return to Sirte.

Bashagha did not stay but hours in Tripoli.

The cars of the forces loyal to the Libyan Prime Minister Abdel Hamid al-Dabaiba

The confrontations were between the militants of the Nawasi Brigade loyal to Bashagha and members of the 166 militia and the Stabilization Support Service affiliated with the Dabaiba government.

Bashagha had arrived at the headquarters of the Al-Nawasi Brigade at first, and he went out with some members of his government under the protection of the 444th Brigade of the Ministry of Defense of the Dabaiba government in exchange for a cessation of hostilities.

The media affiliated with the national unity government spoke of what happened as a firm and professional dealings with an outlaw armed group, which on Tuesday attempted to infiltrate the capital, Tripoli, to create chaos using weapons.

It seems that Fathi Bashagha and the members of his government who entered with him to Tripoli have returned to the city of Sirte and from there to the Libyan east, where they will practice their duties from there after they failed to establish and settle in the capital, Tripoli.

The two Libyan governments: profit and loss

Abdul Hamid Al-Dabaiba

It is noticeable that Bashagha's entry to the capital, Tripoli, and the accompanying violent confrontations forced him to return to the city of Sirte, coinciding with talks in Cairo between representatives of the two competing governments for a second round of talks.

In this context, it is unlikely that Egypt gave the green light to Bashagha to go to Tripoli because of the aggravation of the situation that Cairo might need while sponsoring these negotiations, even if some observers say that Bashagha is closer to Cairo than his opponent, Dabaiba.

Egypt is keen to reassure the various parties and wants the Libyan Joint Committee to crown its meetings in Cairo with the desired success.

This means that Bashagha's entry into Tripoli is not in harmony with what his Egyptian ally wants to create an atmosphere of understanding and harmony, and it will have a negative impact on the future of these talks sponsored by the Egyptian mediator and led by the United Nations.

Although Bashagha and Dabaiba hail from Misurata, the new Tripoli crisis has once again raised concerns about the country’s re-entry into an open conflict between the eastern and western regions, consolidating the existing division, and adding a new stalemate to the United Nations mission, which was unable to complete the previously agreed-upon road map. And to hold elections that were scheduled for the end of 2021, an election that everyone was betting on might return the country to a constitutional situation that guarantees an agreement between the competing parties.

The Tripoli crisis coincided with the closure of the oil facilities in the east of the country by the forces of retired Major General Khalifa Haftar, who supports Bashagha, which means more loss for the Libyan state, especially since this closure resulted in halving the main source of foreign revenue.

In general, what happened in Tripoli has pushed the political scene in Libya into a new predicament, which will affect the talks led by the United Nations in Cairo to find a way out of the Libyan stalemate.

Although it appears that Dabaiba, his government, and allied militias have emerged victorious from the Tripoli crisis, the Al-Nawasi Brigade, close to Bashagha, suffers a loss that may lose some of its control over some parts of the capital, Tripoli.

Searching for a position in the future Libyan landscape

The Tripoli incidents and the parties supporting the political settlement in Libya, especially the United Nations and the European Union, are seeking to organize general elections in the country at the end of June 2022, and not choosing Bashagha for this circumstance for free.

Arrangements for holding the elections have made significant strides, and the parties supporting the settlement process are betting on them.

Some media reports suggest that most of the Libyan political sides, including Bashagha and Dabaiba and members of the two conflicting governments, may have no chances of progressing for the imminent electoral elections due to the Libyan street’s boredom from the conflict and division known by the Libyan political and military class and the need for new faces to emerge that are not linked to the existing alignments.

Tripoli incidents and their aftermath

In light of the new tension, the Egyptian initiative that seeks to bring the various parties to a general agreement may have resulted in a call to abandon the two governments and seeking to activate the mechanisms that would appoint a new government, in light of the inability of the Bashagha government to impose itself and control the reins of government, and in light of the new tension. The end of the custody of the Dabaiba government and his adherence to the legitimacy he sees as requiring that the matter be handed over only to an elected government. The matter in Libya has reached a dead end, with which it has become necessary to get rid of the two governments that have become part of the problem and are not a basis for the solution.

Bashagha's attempt to enter Tripoli remains a kind of confusion in the Libyan political scene, and prolongs the Libyan crisis, especially since the elections to be organized after less than two months may remove him from the scene.

In addition, the war in Ukraine has temporarily distracted the United States and the European Union from the Libyan file, and Bashagha may have tried to take advantage of this situation to gain points in his favor in the capital, Tripoli.

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This article was published by: Al Jazeera Center for Studies.