King Abdullah II's warnings of Iranian expansion and the return of the Islamic State... Messages to the Arab neighborhood and the Jordanian interior

Amman-

Jordan does not hide its fear of an upcoming escalation on its northeastern border with Syria, coinciding with the withdrawal of Russian forces from the region, which opens the door wide to the Iranian presence and loyal militias there.

Jordanian fears also emerge in conjunction with the return of the activity of the Islamic State in the Levant and Iraq, after it was able to gather its forces and appoint a new military leadership for it after the assassination of its leaders, and the return of its operations in several Iraqi and Syrian regions.

The kingdom's security and military concerns are increasing in the border areas extending for about 375 km, as well as inside Jordan through the revival of sleeper cells for ISIS or the activities of its supporters within the so-called "lone wolves".

In an interview with retired US General Herbert McMaster within the specialized military program "Battlegrounds" - produced by the Hoover Institution at Stanford University in the United States, King Abdullah II of Jordan said that "the Russian presence in southern Syria was a source of calm," and said that " Their vacuum will now be filled by the Iranians and their proxies, and unfortunately we have here a potential escalation of the problems on our borders."

Security sources spoke to Al Jazeera Net about a military alert on the border with Syria for fear of the presence of pro-Iranian factions or ISIS militias (Al Jazeera)

Prepare and coordinate

In this regard, a military source told Al-Jazeera Net that "the Jordanian armed forces are ready to confront any security and military developments on the kingdom's northeastern borders with Syria, and are monitoring them hour by hour, and are able to sense any security and military risks that may affect the security and stability of the region."

The source added that the Jordanian armed forces "are fighting a war on a daily basis with armed militias and gangs smuggling weapons and drugs, backed by military forces and with the help of outposts and security centers in southern Syria."

He stressed that the security situation on the northern border "is tense due to the presence of Iranian militias and the resumption of activity of ISIS cells."

He said that the king's statements are "a warning message of the upcoming new dangers to the Arab neighbors and the international coalition forces, in order to take more cooperation and precautions."

Several months ago, the armed forces announced a change in the rules of engagement with smugglers and militias located or close to the Jordanian border, in coordination with the Syrian authorities, which led to the killing of dozens of smugglers.

Jordan provided the Syrian side with details of what the armed militias and gangs of smugglers are doing on the common border, through the security and military coordination committees between Amman and Damascus, according to the source.

Internal and external dangers

The withdrawal of Russian forces from the areas of southern Syria means the expansion of the Iranians and their armed militias along the extended Jordanian-Syrian border, which, according to analysts, constitutes "military and security burdens on Jordan, especially with the presence of hot spots such as the Rukban camp and others along the border."

In turn, military analyst Fayez al-Duwairi believes that the presence of the Iranians and their militias in southern Syria constitutes "a danger that crosses the Jordanian borders, a danger to the northeastern border shared between the two countries, and to the Jordanian interior from the formation of Iranian armed cells."

Al-Duwairi expected that the coming period will witness "more infiltrations and smuggling of weapons and drugs across the border, and consequently more new points of engagement with the Jordanian forces."

As for the danger of ISIS cells returning to work, Al-Duwairi believes that this imposes additional burdens on the security and military services at the two levels, “border control and the Jordanian interior, which calls for more precautions to prevent any terrorist operations - whether from border areas or from inside the Kingdom - that may be carried out by sleeper cells.” to ISIS in Jordan, with the importance of protecting Jordanian youth from joining this organization.”

King Abdullah II (left) said that his visit to the United States came to coordinate on confronting the possible escalation on Syria's borders (Anatolia).

The return of the state

In his turn, King Abdullah warned in his dialogue of the re-emergence of ISIS, whether in Syria, Iraq or Africa, stressing that his visit to the United States came in order to coordinate with friends, and discuss what can be done from the tactical and strategic sides for the remainder of 2022.

According to analysts, the Islamic State in the Levant and Iraq has not been completely eliminated, but rather on its military stocks in part, and its ability to carry out effective military operations has been limited during the last period, with the efforts of the international coalition to eliminate the organization.

For his part, Hassan Abu Haniyeh, an expert on Islamic movements, believes that the organization has resurged and expanded during the past months, "and despite the killing of its leaders, it was able to assemble its forces and elements and find a new leadership for it."

According to the expert, "the organization has been restructured to carry out a guerrilla war, and its operations have grown and we have witnessed this in a number of Iraqi, Syrian and Afghan regions, and even in Southeast Asia and Africa."

More seriously, Abu Haniyeh adds, that the organization has shifted its operations from “central decisions to decentralization, dividing countries into regions, and regions into sections, and each section has a command that carries out operations freely and directly, which led to an evolution in the quality and size of operations.”

During the past years, Jordan witnessed an expansion of the Islamic State, with the spread of sleeper cells that carried out terrorist operations in a number of cities such as Karak and Salt, and targeted the Intelligence Directorate in Baqa'a.