An article by an American researcher published by the American magazine "Foreign Affairs" stated that the United States and Taiwan need to understand and influence China's views on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

David Sachs, a researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations - one of the most influential and influential decision-making centers outside the US government - said the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine was being felt strongly outside Europe, especially on the island of Taiwan, whose citizens feared that they They may suffer a similar invasion by a more powerful neighbor, in reference to China.

Just as Russian President Vladimir Putin has described restoring the "historic unity" between Russia and Ukraine as a spiritual task, Chinese President Xi Jinping believes that reunification of mainland China with what he sees as the lost province of Taiwan will help cement his place in history, and that the two countries are one family. Taiwan is a sovereign country.

Despite these similarities, the author of the article argues that it is wrong to assume that Russia's invasion of Ukraine will in any way precipitate China's desire for union with Taiwan.

David Sachs believes that Chinese leaders' calculations about the use of force against Taiwan are essentially political decisions that Moscow's actions will not affect.

Moreover, Chinese officials are well aware that attacking Taiwan at the moment would likely stoke Western fears that Beijing and Moscow are forming an "authoritarian axis" and jointly beginning to coordinate, raising the possibility of direct US intervention. the United States and its allies.


Lessons from Ukraine

The American researcher points out in his article that President Xi Jinping and the leadership of the Chinese People's Liberation Army are closely monitoring the events in Ukraine to draw lessons that may be useful in the event of a conflict with Taiwan.

Russia's suffering in Ukraine, however, will in no way shake China's resolve to bring Taiwan under its control.

In Beijing's view, Russia's war on Ukraine is just a sobering sampling of the likely costs to China of going to war.

According to the Foreign Affairs article, Chinese leaders will study Russia's failures in that war, and adjust their operational plans in light of them to avoid making similar mistakes.

Therefore, it is advisable, says Sachs, that Taiwan and the United States do the same, and bring each stage of the war in Ukraine under scrutiny from the perspective of a Chinese official.

In doing so, they may be able to identify facts or patterns that might actually give Chinese officials pause, and give them possibilities that Taiwan should use to enhance its deterrence.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine confirms - according to the American researcher - the conviction of Chinese leaders that they are entering a more dangerous era, and that they should prepare for a greater possibility of war.

exclude direct interference

Beijing views any cracks in the alliance that the United States has forged with many countries, especially the major economies, as encouraging news, and has noted that some of the United States' close partners, such as India, have not punished Russia or strongly condemned its invasion of Ukraine, even After reports of alleged Russian war crimes.

Hence, it may assume that Taiwan's international support will be more modest than that enjoyed by Kyiv.

Perhaps the most important thing that China learned from the war in Ukraine - in the eyes of David Sachs - is that the United States will not intervene directly against a nuclear-armed opponent.

China will also consider sanctions against Russia before taking steps to reduce its exposure to similar measures, such as accelerating its strategy of boosting exports while encouraging stronger domestic demand, in an effort to increase other countries' economic dependence on it and reduce its dependence on others.

This strategy - as the magazine article explains - would serve two purposes: immunizing China's economy from sanctions, and making any sanctions imposed by Western countries on Beijing to ward off or punish any invasion of Taiwan more harmful to the West than China.