As early as 4 p.m. on Sunday afternoon, supporters of Hendrik Wüst were crowding in the garden of the North Rhine-Westphalian CDU state headquarters on Düsseldorf's Wasserstrasse.

The SPD and CDU have been in a head-to-head race in the past few weeks in the most populous federal state.

But in the late afternoon, the CDU became more certain that the SPD had been distanced much more clearly than the polls in recent weeks had indicated.

A wave of cheering surges through the CDU marquees when the first forecasts appear on the big screens at 6 p.m.

Pure burger

Political correspondent in North Rhine-Westphalia.

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Leonie Feuerbach

Editor in Politics.

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Oliver Georgi

Editor in the politics of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sunday newspaper.

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35 percent – ​​that is far more than supporters of the party had hoped for until recently.

That is even more than the 33 percent with which Armin Laschet was able to form an alliance with the FDP, which was so strong at the time.

For a new edition of this alliance - this has also been on the cards for a long time - it is no longer enough, the losses of the FDP are too clear.

In 2017 she had done better than ever with 12.6 percent, but according to the forecast she has now crashed terribly and even has to tremble to make it over the five percent hurdle.

In the waterway, a groan goes through the ranks when the FDP bar stops at exactly 5.0 percent.

At 6:30 p.m., Wüst steps up to the lectern, which is crowded around him, to the shouts of Hendrik, Hendrik.

"The voters have made a clear decision," he says to the jubilation.

"We, the CDU, clearly won this election." The task of "forming and leading" the next North Rhine-Westphalian state government clearly lies with the Union.

"I will now approach the democratic parties and do everything to ensure that our country is well governed." An alliance with the Greens is obvious, and with 18 percent they are stronger than ever in NRW.

More theoretical options are a grand coalition or Jamaica.

If Wüst does not succeed in convincing a partner of the CDU, then despite his personal triumph he could still become a king without a coalition.

Because it could possibly be enough for red-green – if the FDP falls out of the state parliament.

The 46-year-old libertine has only been prime minister of the most populous federal state since October.

Armin Laschet resigned as Prime Minister after his failure as a candidate for Union Chancellor in the federal elections.

Wüst has been Transport Minister in Laschet's state cabinet since 2017.

Wüst polarized at the beginning of his political career at the beginning of the millennium as Secretary General of the state CDU, but ever since his appointment as Minister he has presented himself as a man of the middle.

With projects such as a bicycle law, he sent signals to the Greens.

And after his election as prime minister, in his first government statement he committed himself not to phasing out coal-fired power generation by 2038 at the latest, as previously planned, but as early as 2030, as desired by the Greens.

In polls in recent months, Wüst has always been ahead of his SPD challenger Thomas Kutschaty when it comes to prime ministerial preference.

In the few months since he was sworn in, however, Wüst was not able to earn a significant official bonus like party friend Daniel Günther from Schleswig Holstein.

However, the libertine from Münsterland was able to stabilize his CDU at a solid level.