ISLAMABAD -

On April 26, a woman blew herself up on a bus that stopped in front of a Chinese institute at the University of Karachi in the southern province of Sindh, Pakistan. This was the latest attack by Baloch movements, which killed 5 people.

The sources stated that among the dead were the director of the Chinese Language Institute and a Chinese teacher, and the Balochistan Liberation Army - the most active Baloch movement - claimed responsibility for the operation.

This attack was not a new event. Going back to the roots of the insurgency in Balochistan, these attacks began with the founding of Pakistan, where the region witnessed a strong opposition movement from the Baloch population.

It was agreed at that time that the region would have autonomy, but this did not happen for various reasons. The Baloch rebellion witnessed several stages, the most recent, most important and longest of which was the last stage since 2004 under General Pervez Musharraf.

Part of one of the attacks in Balochistan last January (European)

Targeting the Chinese project

The measures taken by the various Pakistani governments over the past decades were not enough to put an end to the rebellion and separatism in Balochistan, but were increased and reinforced by attacks by Baloch separatist organizations.

The attacks target Pakistani military and security forces, but focus on Chinese citizens residing in Pakistan, especially those working on the Joint Economic Corridor projects with China.

The 1990s was one of the quietest periods to some extent, which raised hopes for political reconciliation in light of the rise of Baloch political parties such as the Balochistan National Party, but Pervez Musharraf's coup in 1999 and the disruption of the constitution gave the impetus to rebellion again, and things became more complicated in the wake of the assassination of the Baloch leader. Nawab Akbar Bugti in 2006.

The period between 2015 and 2020 saw a decline in the insurgency, but it regained its strength and returned to its era in 2020.


Reasons for rebellion

The reasons that led to the Baloch rebellion were many, but it intensified in recent years after the China-Pakistan Joint Economic Corridor project entered an important stage, and this made Chinese engineers and workers more targeted than others.

Muhammad Faisal, a political and security analyst and researcher at the Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad, says that Baloch groups believe that the Pakistani state is using its resources without giving it the decision-making power over how to use its natural wealth.

Faisal told Al Jazeera Net that the renewed wave of violence against Chinese citizens is a means of putting pressure on the Pakistani state, as the feeling of exploitation extends to projects that are implemented with Chinese support, such as the Gwadar port, which is within the framework of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

The Baloch rebels see that Pakistan occupies the region, and they view the Pakistani army as an occupier of their land and plunder its resources, according to the statements of officials in the Baloch groups.

Last February, the independent Kurdish newspaper, Ekurd Daily, gave an interview to the commander of the Baloch National Army, Gilzar Imam, in which he said that his armed movement would seek to liberate Balochistan from the "Pakistani occupation".

"We will try to carry out military operations against the fascist Pakistani army in an orderly manner," he added.

Two Pakistani soldiers stand at the Pak-Afghan border at Badini Trade Gate in Balochistan (European)

The rebellion continues

The Pakistani forces have taken various measures over the past decades and years, increasing their military forces in Balochistan province with strict security precautions, especially to protect projects that are part of the economic corridor.

This is in addition to the attacks and military campaigns carried out by the Pakistani army to combat Baloch groups. Last February, the Pakistani army announced the killing of at least 20 insurgents in Balochistan after two military sites were attacked in the region.

An army statement added that at least 9 Pakistani soldiers were killed in various incidents during that period, according to local and foreign media.


Attempts for a political solution

In conjunction with the security confrontation, attempts emerged for political solutions to the historical conflict in Balochistan, and according to the Pakistani media, there was a preliminary approval by the Pakistani government in 2015 on a plan to make contacts with the leaders of Baloch groups in order to resolve the conflict in the region and end the mutual attacks between the two parties, but these attempts It did not work and was not taken seriously, reducing the focus on any political solutions.

And the political attempts were not limited to Pakistan only, but there was a similar trend from China, in 2018 the British Financial Times claimed that Beijing has been in talks “quietly” with Baloch separatist militants for more than 5 years, in an attempt to protect Infrastructure projects of the China-Pakistan Joint Economic Corridor.

The newspaper quoted at the time a Pakistani official that the Chinese "quietly made a lot of progress", but it is clear from the recent attacks against them that those efforts failed to find solutions.

Analyst Muhammad Faisal says that Pakistan's actions depended on 4 axes, firstly a comprehensive political condemnation, secondly conducting a quick investigation and strengthening security measures, thirdly tightening the screws on supporters of Baluchi extremist groups, and fourthly involving these groups in various strategies such as amnesty plans, reconciliation efforts and dialogue.

According to Faisal, these measures have had a short-term impact on the level of armed operations, but they are still limited to the medium and long term because they will not lead to a political solution.

Pakistan accuses India and the United States of trying to influence its relations and projects with China (Reuters)

External support

Pakistan says that the Baloch rebel groups receive external support, especially from India and the United States, and the reasons for this support vary between provoking instability and pressure on the state and the Pakistani army, and between fighting and disrupting Chinese projects in Pakistan and straining the relationship between the two countries.

In 2018, Pakistan International News reported that India had allocated more than 50 billion rupees ($261 million) to target the economic corridor by creating unrest in Balochistan.

The newspaper quoted Pakistani security agencies as saying that Indian intelligence is involved in providing financial support to Baloch leaders opposed to carrying out terrorist activities in Balochistan.

There are allegations of American support as well, and political analyst and expert on foreign relations, Muhammad Mahdi, says that the land of Balochistan is crucial for the United States to confront the power of Iran and China.

Mahdi explains to Al Jazeera Net that China's development of the economic corridor will pose an economic threat to the United States and its hegemony in the region, and that creating an insurgency in Balochistan is the only possible way to confront Chinese investment, adding that the CIA elements are working in full cooperation with major powers and Pakistan's opponents such as India.

The analyst says that the Sino-Indian competition in the region plays a major role, as India is trying to compete by developing the Chabahar port in Iran to compete with the Gwadar port that China is developing in Pakistan.


Relationship targeting

The strong Chinese involvement in Pakistan and its huge projects in the country made Chinese engineers, workers and interests in the main targeting circle by Baloch armed groups, and in statements to Jalzar Imam, he said that "China should know that its investment is not safe in Balochistan."

For his part, Pakistani Minister of Development and Planning Ahsan Iqbal said a few days ago that "the enemies of the country want to destabilize it because they seek to create problems in the way of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project."

Meanwhile, Senator Mashhad Hussain, Chairman of the Senate Defense Committee, said that "China's confidence in the ability of the Pakistani security system to protect its citizens and their projects has been seriously shaken."

"If such attacks continue, not only Chinese investors, but other foreign investors will be forced to review their role in Pakistan," Hussain said, according to the Pakistani newspaper, Dawn.

In the wake of the recent attacks, Pakistani reports spoke of Chinese workers leaving the country in large numbers, but Beijing denied this and said it was a regular and normal travel movement for its workers.

But analyst Muhammad Mahdi said that the continuation of the attacks adds some turmoil to the Sino-Pakistani relations, but that China realizes the magnitude of the challenge and the danger that surrounds not only its projects, but also its strategic relations with Pakistan, and that the dispute is not in the interest of the two countries but in the interest of their enemies, and will lead to the failure of The economic corridor, with significant economic and political repercussions.