Russia's operation in Ukraine pushes Asia to think about war

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, most countries of the world reasserted the superiority of hard power. The Russian-Ukrainian war began to push a large number of Asian countries to re-evaluate their defense needs, and the official US allies, such as Japan and South Korea, noticed that Washington refused to be hostile to Russia despite the horror of the invasion, which Its implementation and flagrant violation of the security guarantees provided by the United States, Britain and Russia to Ukraine under the “Budapest Memorandum” of 1994, and in the opinion of Seoul and Tokyo, it seems that American fears of an escalation of the conflict negate the duty to defend allies such as NATO members, Japan or South Korea.

Before the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war, Japan began increasing its defense spending for ten consecutive years due to its fear of accelerating Chinese military expansion and North Korea's nuclear program, and recently, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe revived an old debate by suggesting that Japan host nuclear weapons. On Japanese soil, he believes that Ukraine's abandonment of its nuclear weapons in 1994 made it more vulnerable to attack from its more powerful Russian neighbor.

In South Korea, too, policymakers are no longer sure they can continue to rely on the US nuclear shield. President-elect Yoon Seok-yeol has pledged to strengthen Seoul's alliance with Washington, and is trying to develop preemptive strike capabilities. Other options include asking Washington to deploy nuclear bombers. And submarines in South Korea, Yoon also called for the deployment of an additional number of anti-ballistic missile defense systems in his country and the resumption of military exercises that take place twice a year between the United States and South Korea, including field exercises that were suspended under former President Donald Trump.

As for Taiwan, the stubborn Ukrainian resistance to the Russian invasion has highlighted scenarios related to a possible Chinese amphibious invasion. Given the effectiveness of the asymmetric warfare the Ukrainians are waging, Taiwanese analysts stress that Taipei should use the same tactic and focus on sea and air.

Meanwhile, other measures are looming: Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu has announced additional deals to receive US weapons soon, and domestically, Taiwan intends to more than double its annual production of missiles, and the country is also planning to extend the period of military conscription from four months to a year.

Singapore, for its part, is aware of the changing strategic environment. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has set Ukraine as a role model and said that the strength of the will of Ukrainians to defend their country pushes them to continue fighting, and the people of Singapore must have the same will if they are to remain safe in this world. .

As for Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, in March he overcame his anti-American past, although he considers Putin a "personal friend" to him. He offered Washington the use of military facilities in the Philippines if the Russian-Ukrainian war spreads to Asia, and on April 21 Duterte called his country's army and corps Police to prepare for all eventualities.

Vietnam, for its part, refused to directly condemn Russia, given its good relations with Moscow, but Washington may become closer to Hanoi, depending on how it deals with the situation. The United States supports the modernization of military equipment in Vietnam to confront China, especially in the South China Sea, and it can Vietnam acquires the least expensive Russian aircraft, and for this reason, the country may be exempted from sanctions soon if the joint military exercises between the United States and Vietnam are renewed.

Asian governments do not necessarily think that war will erupt in the region soon, but China may take inspiration from the Russian approach and use hybrid war tactics in the South China Sea, for example. China has begun to fabricate historical discourses there about the territories it claims, similar to Russia's demands in Ukraine. At the same time, Beijing's criticism of Washington's Indo-Pacific strategy resembles Russian claims that it was NATO that forced it to attack Ukraine, and since Russia used this kind of rhetoric to justify its latest attack, it is inevitable that Asian capitals will grow more determined to strengthen their defenses. in the next stage.

Europe has remembered the reality of hard power in the most brutal way, and Asia does not need to go through a similar experience to reach the same conclusion because it has witnessed many conflicts since World War II, yet the Russian invasion has prompted governments to prepare for future conflicts with unprecedented seriousness.

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