LONDON -

The results of Northern Ireland's local elections have caused a political earthquake, with reverberations across the United Kingdom, after the Republican Sinn Fein party won a majority in the Irish National Assembly, the country's parliament.

Sinn Fein's success in the elections occurred for the first time since the founding of Northern Ireland in 1921, because the lead in the elections has always been the preserve of the parties bearing the slogan of unity with the United Kingdom.

Sinn Féin won 27 seats, while the Democratic Unionist Party won 25 seats, and the Alliance Party came third with 17 seats.

That is why political analyzes agreed to describe these election results as historic and unprecedented, because they make the nationalists who wish to secede from the kingdom and unite the Irish island at the forefront of the political scene, and they have the ability to push for actually secession from the British crown.


Who is the "Sin Fein" party?

The origins of the founding of this party go back to the year 1905 and it bore many different names before it became what it is today, in 1970.

During the bloody war in Ireland between supporters of union with the United Kingdom and supporters of secession, which killed more than 3,500, the "Sin Fein" party was considered the political wing of the Irish Republican Army.

This is the only party that has political activity in the two parts of the island (Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland) and carries in its political ideology the goal of uniting the island away from the United Kingdom.

Gradually, the party succeeded in increasing the number of its seats in Parliament, to become, since 2003, the largest national party carrying the idea of ​​secession in terms of the number of seats.

And he knew many changes in his political thesis, but his position on secession remained constant, and although he played an important role in the peace negotiations and the signing of the “Great Friday” agreement that ended the war, the party and its leaders refuse to condemn the violent acts carried out by the Republican army during those days. Period.

Another exciting position of the party is its refusal to receive its seven seats in the British Parliament, because all parliamentarians swear allegiance to the Queen, while Sinn Fein refuses to be loyal to the Queen and considers that the Kingdom's guardianship of Ireland is an illegitimate situation.

Is separation imminent?

Although Sinn Féin announced immediately after his election victory that the priority will be to confront the cost of living and inflation, and improve health services, this party also carries in its electoral platform a promise to seek a referendum to unify the island.

Sinn Fein calls the referendum a "border election" to see what the people of Northern Ireland think of separating from the United Kingdom or staying under the crown, and the party has a 5-year plan to get to the referendum station.

However, the organization of the referendum is not a decision made by "Sinn Fein" alone, even if the majority in the National Assembly, because the decision-making system in Northern Ireland is too complex to ensure a balance between the trend of unity and separatism.


How can the secession referendum be organized?

The "Good Friday" agreement - which was signed in 1998 under American auspices and ended years of bloody conflict - is the setting rules for organizing a referendum for the secession of Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom.

This agreement stipulates that the British Minister in charge of Northern Ireland shall decide to call for a referendum to secede from the United Kingdom. Kingdom cloak.

This means that the final decision to organize the referendum will remain in the hands of the British government, which will certainly not give it easily, especially in these circumstances where the ruling Conservative Party is going through a real political crisis.

On the other hand, the Sinn Fein party defends its position by saying that the results of the recent elections show that there is a tendency among the majority of Irish voters towards uniting the island of Ireland and leaving the United Kingdom.

It is an inaccurate justification from a numerical point of view, firstly because most of the opinion polls that have been organized show the absence of a majority in support of the idea of ​​secession from the Kingdom, and secondly because the third largest party in Northern Ireland, the Alliance party, does not adopt any position on the issue of unity, which complicates the issue further.

Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou MacDonald says the unification of Ireland is an inevitable goal (Getty Images)

What are Sinn Fein's plans to organize the secession referendum?

Immediately after the election results were announced, party leader Mary Lou MacDonald asserted that the goal of Ireland's unification could not be abandoned, but rather "has become an urgent demand".

However, she seemed cautious while setting the time limit for holding the referendum on secession from the kingdom, when she confirmed that her party was working on a 5-year plan that would end with the referendum, noting that "the current decade will witness the end of the era of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland to become a united state of Ireland."

The leader of the "Sinn Fein" party does not want to repeat the chaos that occurred after the referendum to leave the European Union, "any referendum needs good preparation and a long period of time to be done in the best way."

It seems that the party is counting on the next five years in which it will be at the forefront of the political scene to prepare for the referendum, before moving to the stage of pressuring London to accept its organization, as it is the final decision maker.


What do the Irish want?

The results of the elections in Northern Ireland did not show a desire among the citizens to secede from the United Kingdom, so much as a desire to get rid of the dualism of unity and separation.

This explains the high number of seats obtained by the Alliance party, which achieved the best electoral result in its history. It says that it is far from the trend of unity as well as secession, and focuses its political project on improving the living conditions of the Irish.

The results of the Alliance Party show that there is anger with the traditional parties in Northern Ireland and a desire to search for an alternative, focusing on the priorities for the Irish, especially with regard to the standard of living.

This party demands a change in the rules for establishing the alliance that leads the country, and stipulates, according to the "Great Friday" agreement, that the partnership between the unitary and separatist parties must be partnered, and the coalition party wants this alliance to become optional, but this means changing the terms of the "Great Friday" agreement, which may not be accepted. The United States is the sponsor of the agreement.