The heroic Ukrainian resistance against the Russians made a Chinese invasion of Taiwan less likely
An American researcher: Deterring China requires the speed of America's arming of Taiwan
Putin proved the inability of the West and America to respond to the move to attack Ukraine.
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While the world is witnessing the crisis of Russia's invasion of Ukraine with no end in sight, the issue of Taiwan is being raised, for which China's invasion could produce results that will not differ much from what is happening now.
The recent visit of a delegation from the US Congress to Taiwan led to strong Chinese reactions in word and deed.
China has repeatedly asserted that Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese territory, and many expected that China would invade Taiwan at some point, perhaps encouraged by the scenario of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, while others excluded this in light of the various pressures Russia faced, embodied in political sanctions. disastrous economics.
The American researcher and writer, Gordon J.
Zhang, a senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute for Policy Studies and a member of its advisory board, said the Chinese military has sent fighter planes, bombers and frigates near Taiwan as part of a military exercise that Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian described as countermeasures to negative US actions. Finally, including the visit of the US Congress delegation to Taiwan.
The spokesman added that Beijing "will continue to take strong measures to fully guarantee its sovereignty and territorial integrity."
As the spokesman was speaking, six members of Congress, led by Senator Lindsay Graham and Senator Robert Menendez, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, were meeting with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and senior officials.
The two-day visit was unannounced, and the Chinese Defense Ministry described it as "covert".
In a report published by the Gatestone Institute, Zhang said that the Global Times of China's People's Daily was more direct;
She said the exercises were not only a "warning" to other members of Congress intending to visit Taiwan, but also "going beyond deterrence by preparing for real potential actions that would fully resolve the Taiwan issue when necessary."
Abandon decades of wrong policy
Whether China plans to invade Taiwan now or not, Zhang added, it is time for the United States to abandon decades of wrong policy on the Taiwan issue.
Among other things, Washington should, on an urgent basis, begin arming Taiwan with the weapons it urgently needs.
The Chinese Eastern Field Command said in a statement: “The People's Republic of China reserves the right to use force to annex the Republic of China, which is the official name of Taiwan.
Taiwan is an inalienable and sacred part of Chinese territory, and there is no room for foreign interference in the Taiwan issue.”
On the other hand, many analysts argued that the heroic Ukrainian resistance in the face of the Russian invaders made a Chinese invasion of Taiwan less likely.
Unfortunately, Xi Jinping, China's highly ambitious and daring president, may be encouraged by recent events in Eastern Europe.
green light
It is quite possible that Xi will decide that the Ukraine war shows that he now has a green light to invade Taiwan.
Overall, the United States, the EU27 and Britain — those 29 countries whose economy was 25 times larger than Russia's last year — could not exert their power to deter Vladimir Putin, so Xi may feel they will fail similarly to China.
Moreover, Zhang explained, the sanctions imposed on Moscow after the invasion were not, and still are, comprehensive.
Hence, it is possible for Xi to believe that no country would dare impose huge costs on his great country.
Xi might think that Putin's invasion has caused enough chaos that others will not stand up to his aggressive actions.
Zhang says Chinese leaders give the impression that they have been emboldened by recent events.
For example, the fall of Kabul last year led to Beijing seeing the United States as impotent, to the point that the Global Times asked, “How can America stand up to a powerful China when it couldn't even deal with (the Taliban).”
Strategic ambiguity
Zhang stressed that not everything that has been said means that China will invade Taiwan - and there are many reasons why it should not - but deterrence is now more important in the Taiwan Strait.
After the fall of Afghanistan and the invasion of Ukraine, Taiwan is being viewed around the world as a test of America's credibility.
Zhang stressed that for decades, the United States had pursued a policy of "strategic ambiguity", and had not made clear to China or Taiwan what it would do in the event of an imminent conflict.
This ambiguity is no longer relevant.
In order to prevent a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, President Joe Biden must publicly declare that America will defend Taiwan.
In addition, the United States should cooperate with allies Japan and Australia, and conclude a multilateral defense treaty in favor of Taiwan.
Zhang concluded his report by saying that to ensure that Taiwan's status is resolved in a peaceful manner, the Biden administration should start shipping weapons to Taiwan, especially long-range missiles.
America and friendly countries should also have troops in Taiwan.
Deterrence is the best guarantee of peace.
• It is time for the United States to abandon its decades of wrong policy on the Taiwan issue. Among other things, Washington should start arming Taiwan with the weapons it urgently needs.
• For decades, the United States has followed a policy of “strategic ambiguity.” It did not explain to China or Taiwan what it would do in the event of an imminent conflict. This ambiguity is no longer relevant.
• The United States, the EU-27 and Britain - those 29 countries whose economy was 25 times larger than Russia's last year - could not exert their power to deter Vladimir Putin, so Xi may feel that they will fail similarly to China.
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