China News Service, May 7 (Reporter Meng Xiangjun) Since the beginning of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, "nuclear weapons" have become the sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of all parties.

Western countries led by the United States believe that Russia may throw out tactical nuclear weapons to reverse the situation because of the unfavorable situation; Russia has come to a contrary view: NATO is the main driver of deploying nuclear weapons everywhere and increasing the threat.

　　NATO's recent series of words and deeds are indeed eye-catching: first, changes in attitude; second, deepening involvement; third, announcing "change of generals"; fourth, accelerating expansion.

　　Recently, as NATO announced that it is no longer "bound" by the documents signed with Russia, foreign media analyzed that its series of actions will increase the risk of nuclear confrontation, or lead to misjudgment and lead to serious consequences.

Data map: The scene of the NATO Defense Ministers' meeting.

["No longer bound"]

　　On May 4, the British "Financial Times" quoted Admiral Rob Ball, chairman of the NATO Military Commission, as saying that although the general consensus at the political level is that the Russian-NATO basic document signed in 1997 will not be "killed", But NATO "does nothing to be bound by the terms."

　　The danger of this statement is that NATO denies history and the possibility of changing the future.

　　In the "Basic Document on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between the Russian Federation and NATO" signed on May 27, 1997, NATO promised not to deploy actual combat troops on the territory of its new member states for a long time.

　　As Medvedev, the vice chairman of the Russian Security Council, said, the consequences of NATO's actions now are: nuclear weapons can be dragged to new member states, such as Sweden and Finland; and "provocative" military exercises are held near the Russian border.

Russian President Vladimir Putin.

　　It appears that NATO is openly obliterating the political significance of the document in an attempt to make bolder moves to push Russia into a corner, as if to see the consequences of further angering Putin.

　　Previously, Putin accused NATO countries of fanning the flames of the situation in Ukraine, and had planned to pass the Crimea Peninsula and Donbass as a "route of invading Russia", and the countries that tried to contain Russia in history "are the ones who threaten the whole world."

【Increase the risk of misjudgment】

　　From the continuous increase of funds and generous donations to Ukraine, to the expansion of intelligence sharing with Ukraine and the direct training of Ukrainian soldiers, the degree of involvement of NATO countries in operations has been deepened.

　　On February 24, the day the Russian army entered Ukraine, NATO authorized Walters, the Supreme Commander of the Allied Forces in Europe, to initiate a defensive posture and deploy the 40,000-strong NATO Rapid Response Force to "anywhere needed."

Data map: NATO multinational soldiers participate in a joint shooting competition in Lithuania.

　　According to reports, this is the first time NATO has activated the rapid response force in its history.

　　Article 5 of the framework of the founding agreement of NATO emphasizes that any attack on any member country is considered an attack on the remaining member countries, and the joint self-defense mechanism, including the use of force, must be activated immediately.

　　Russian affairs commentator Nicholas suggested that the chaos in the battle may lead to catastrophic mistakes, bringing people one step closer to nuclear conflict.

These possibilities include:

　　The Russian side misestimated the heading and may open fire on the NATO aircraft;

　　The Russian side may mistakenly believe that the Russian aircraft was attacked by NATO forces;

　　NATO forces may have mistakenly fired on Russian troops in Ukraine.

　　Recently, Russia has clearly warned that NATO transport vehicles in Ukraine containing weapons and ammunition for Ukraine are regarded as legitimate targets and will be destroyed.

Data map: NATO held a two-week joint military exercise in Norway and surrounding areas.

　　Harris, an associate professor of political science at Colorado State University in the United States, believes that NATO's military aid to Ukraine is at risk of escalating, and hostile actions against Russia will bring Washington and its allies closer to direct conflict with Moscow.

　　"If there is a serious conflict between Russia and NATO members, nuclear weapons will end up on the table," he added, "whether people like it or not."

[The choice of changing horses]

　　On May 3, local time, the commander of the U.S. European Command and the Supreme Commander of NATO Allied Forces in Europe changed positions.

NATO's high-profile "change of generals".

Image source: NATO official website homepage.

　　Cavalli, who is currently in charge of U.S. Army units in Europe and Africa, will lead some 100,000 U.S. troops in Europe when his nomination is confirmed.

According to reports, this position is quite powerful in the Pentagon.

　　This was not an "unconventional" appointment, and everything went according to plan.

　　Because the term of office is generally two to three years, Walters took office on May 3, 2019 during the Trump administration.

Precisely changing the generals after three years shows that the NATO machine is operating in an orderly manner under the control of the United States.

Walters (left) and NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg (center) at the handover ceremony of NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe in May 2019.

Photo courtesy of NATO

　　Among them, some details are worth paying attention to:

　　1. Cavalli is proficient in Russian and holds a master's degree in Russian and Eastern European Studies from Yale University.

　　2. Cavalli served as director of Russian affairs in the Office of the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff.

　　3. Up to now, NATO has served as the supreme commander of the European Allied Forces by the US military generals.

　　It is not an exaggeration to say that Cavalli is "Russian".

In the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, NATO's three-year exchange will inevitably be carefully selected, focusing on coping with the possible long-termization of the situation.

　　And, no accident, this time it was the Americans who came to be the Supreme Commander of the Allied Forces in Europe, and the control of European defense was still firmly in his hands.

[Eurasian two-line "March"]

　　Look at the "big move" of NATO expansion:

　　1. Create a new precedent by attracting the first Asian country, South Korea, to join the NATO Cooperative Cyber ​​Defense Center of Excellence (CCDCOE) established in 2008.

Data map: In 2017, NATO held a large-scale cyber defense exercise.

　　According to foreign media reports, the agency is the world's most authoritative cyber security agency, and South Korea has participated in the world's largest cyber exercise "Lock Shield" for two consecutive years.

　　In 2022, more than 2,000 people from 32 countries participated in the exercise, practicing to protect the host country's IT systems, critical infrastructure, military bases, etc. from large-scale cyber attacks, and to cooperate in making tactical and strategic decisions in crisis situations.

　　On March 23, Sullivan, the U.S. president's national security adviser, acknowledged that NATO could respond collectively to potential cyberattacks if only one member state requested it.

　　The United States believes that Russia may counter sanctions through cyberattacks. Russia denies this, and points out that the Russian cyber information space is subjected to hundreds of thousands of destructive attacks every week, mainly from North America, EU member states and Ukraine.

　　Second, Finland and Sweden began to seriously consider joining NATO.

　　Two long-standing neutral countries, ready to abandon their traditions.

Data map: NATO's annual exercise is carried out in Poland.

　　This in itself means a huge change in the European security order. The Wall Street Journal commented that the Ukrainian crisis represents a turning point in recent history. NATO has become stronger, united and effective, and its expansion will be inevitable.

　　Swedish Foreign Minister Lind said the United States was "ready to make various forms of security commitments" if Sweden and Finland were "threatened" by Russia during the transition period to join NATO.

The German and British governments expressed support.

　　On the other hand, some people questioned why NATO did not stop.

Croatian President Milanovic stated that he would veto Sweden and Finland to join NATO before the settlement of the Balkan issue at the Madrid summit in June, calling it a "dangerous routine".

　　Britain's Green Party co-chairman Ramsay said Britain should withdraw from NATO as soon as the Ukrainian conflict is over.

　　Robson, New Zealand's former deputy foreign minister and minister for disarmament and arms control, said Washington had sponsored the conflict in Ukraine, deploying military bases in various countries, NATO had always wanted to surround Russia, and Russia had fought back.

For this, it is time to "say thank you" to Moscow.

(Finish)