At the same time, Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues to raise supply concerns, which have increased with the announcement of a planned European embargo on Russian oil.
Prices thus soared on Wednesday, the barrel of Brent from the North Sea, the reference for black gold in Europe, closing above 110 dollars, its highest level for two and a half weeks.
Thursday, they remained at a high level: around 09:45 GMT, Brent took 0.30% to 110.47 dollars a barrel and the American WTI grabbed 0.02% to 107.83 dollars.
China, reason for "caution"
"It is likely that OPEC + will stick to its plan despite the continuing instability linked to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict," Walid Koudmani, an analyst at XTB, told AFP, citing "the outlook for lower demand due to the confinements observed in China".
As in previous months, the cartel will therefore probably open the floodgates to the tune of 432,000 barrels per day for June, a strategy initiated in the spring of 2021 when the economy was recovering after the drastic crude cuts imposed by the shock of the pandemic.
The alliance's debates will begin with technical discussions within the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) at 11:00 a.m. GMT (1:00 p.m. in Paris and Vienna, the headquarters of the cartel), before the plenary meeting by videoconference.
Largely spared for two years, China has faced its worst epidemic outbreak in recent weeks since the spring of 2020, which has undermined its zero Covid strategy.
A subway station closed in Beijing on May 4, 2022, due to the Covid pandemic Jade GAO AFP
Beijing closed dozens of metro stations on Wednesday and its residents now fear that their city will be confined, as is the case in Shanghai, the largest city in China with 25 million inhabitants where most cases are registered. .
"The slowdown in activity in China is certainly a factor that will justify an OPEC + status quo, despite international pressure to increase supply in the face of the current energy crisis", agrees Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analyst at Swissquote bank. , interviewed by AFP.
This is "a reason to remain cautious", also believes in a note Fawad Razaqzada, analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
"Untenable wait"
As for the new economic sanctions planned against Russia, they should not reshuffle the cards for the moment.
The European Commission recommends in its sixth package of sanctions "a ban on all Russian oil, crude and refined, transported by sea and by pipeline" by the end of 2022, announced its President Ursula von der Leyen in the European Parliament.
A prospect that threatens supply in an already tight market.
While the unanimity of the 27 is imperative, Hungary, very dependent on Russian deliveries, rejected the project "in its current form".
If, however, the Union "manages to convince its members to ratify the plan (...), this will have a huge impact on Russian oil exports", warns Mr. Razaqzada.
Here again, the OPEC + alliance, anxious to remain united and not to offend Moscow, "will certainly not save the day", launches Ms. Ozkardeskaya.
According to analysts, this outbreak is not enough to shake the thirteen members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Riyadh, and their ten partners led by Moscow (OPEC +).
An oil refinery of the giant Gazprom Neft, on the outskirts of Moscow on April 28, 2022 Natalia KOLESNIKOVA AFP / Archives
"The cartel made it clear that the war in Ukraine was not cause for concern" for the market, she recalls.
For Stephen Innes, analyst at Spi Asset Management, this wait-and-see attitude "is becoming more and more untenable" and "contrary to the mission" of regulating the market of this alliance forged in 2016.
This is "the reason why they are constantly criticized for their slowness and their technical lack of reaction to recent developments in world markets", he asserts.
But does OPEC+ really hold the key to the problem?
Between lack of investment in oil infrastructure in some member countries or operational problems, the cartel regularly fails to reach its production quotas.
© 2022 AFP