After lengthy negotiations, the left-wing parties negotiated an agreement to present joint candidacies in the 577 constituencies.
This alliance of rebels, communists, ecologists and socialists should reshuffle the cards for the legislative elections next June.
The agreement on the left could push La République en Marche to solidify the presidential majority before the first round, while the National Rally and Reconquest will leave divided.
“A historic agreement”, according to the signatories.
After tough negotiations, the left-wing parties finally agreed for the legislative elections on 12th and 19th June next.
Rebellious France, with 22% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the presidential election, managed to convince environmentalists, communists and socialists to present joint candidacies under the banner "New popular ecological and social union" (NUPES) in the 577 constituencies.
Will this unity on the left force the other camps to join forces for the election?
On paper, the agreement allows the left to present only one candidate per constituency.
Not insignificant when you know the rules for qualifying for the legislative elections: be part of the first two or obtain at least 12.5% of registered voters (i.e. around 25% if the abstention is 50%) to remain in the second round.
“Without an agreement, the fragmentation of votes on the left would have made the qualification more complicated.
The union therefore increases this prospect even if there may be dissenting candidates who will not respect the agreement, ”says Martial Foucault, professor at Sciences po.
"The unit changes the balance of power and could create more triangles, with a left block, a centrist block and an extreme right block", adds the director of Cevipof.
Towards a strengthening of the “presidential majority”?
This redistribution of cards should lead to upheavals within the presidential majority, according to the researcher.
“The Republic on the move now has the need to ensure that there is as little loss as possible in the center-right, in particular limiting clashes with allies like Horizons [Edouard Philippe’s party].
The agreement on the left can also produce an acceleration of poaching of the outgoing Republican candidates, if the latter have the feeling that the banner "presidential majority" offers them a better chance of being elected, ”adds Martial Fourcault.
The Macronist temptation of several elected LRs has been agitating the right for several days.
But the party leadership has indicated that there will be no national agreement with Emmanuel Macron.
"It's been two months since we've been told that dozens of elected officials will join the majority, but we haven't seen anyone leave," sweeps the LR deputy from the Channel, Philippe Gosselin.
“It is not because there is an electoral cartel on the left that we need a union of the rights.
On the pitch, I don't think this alliance really changes the game.
The national dynamic behind the figure of Mélenchon is not necessarily at the local level, ”he nuances.
The National Rally continues to close the door
Eric Zemmour, for his part, tried to use this union of the left to finally convince Marine Le Pen to make an alliance with the legislative elections.
“Either the national bloc unites, and in this case it could end up in the second round in 396 constituencies and have between 100 and 200 deputies.
Either there is no agreement and the RN will only have 15 deputies and there will be 100 to 150 mélenchonnistes, ”the boss of Reconquête tweeted on Monday.
An argument which did not at all convince the National Rally, which continues to ignore its ex-rival.
“The left, which is brain dead, is trying to salvage what it can salvage with this agreement, we can understand that.
But that does not change our strategy: we will have candidates everywhere, ”supports Gilles Pennelle, boss of the RN in Brittany.
This refusal annoys the executives of Reconquest.
“Jean-Luc Mélenchon himself had the political intelligence to reach out to those who prevented him from being in the second round.
Macron is also trying to unify his majority, notes Benjamin Cauchy, candidate for the identity party in Aine.
On our side, the RN refuses this unit for passionate reasons.
This will make it more difficult for us for the ballot”.
Legislative 2022 LIVE: LFI and the PS conclude their agreement, subject to the internal approval of the socialists...
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Legislative 2022: The PS and LFI find a compromise on the constituencies and approach an agreement
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