“There is no room for maneuver”: why Brussels announced imminent sanctions against Russian oil

The head of the European Council, Charles Michel, said he was confident that new sanctions against Russia would soon be introduced, in particular with regard to Russian oil.

“We are imposing sanctions on Russia to put financial, economic and political pressure on the Kremlin.

After all, our goal is simple: we must crush the Russian war machine.

I am sure that the (European.

) Council will immediately impose further sanctions, in particular on Russian oil, ”said Michel.

He stressed that the EU will “put an end” to dependence on Russian energy carriers.

“We are diversifying our supplies and routes, including through the use of liquefied natural gas,” said the head of the European Council.

He noted that within the framework of such a course, the new LNG terminal in Greece, the construction of which has already begun, is extremely “timely” and important.

“This is a geopolitically significant investment and a geopolitically significant moment.

This is a reflection of what we should be doing more of.

After all, it (LNG terminal.

) will ensure the reliability of supplies to Greece, Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Serbia and other countries in the region.

And this is extremely important, says Michel.

“This will help insulate the region – Southeast Europe – from Russian attempts to use gas supplies as a weapon.”

According to the head of the European Council, he is firmly convinced that "a new dawn of Europe's energy independence" has come.

“This is a very powerful and very positive step for our common political project, as it will help diversify gas supplies to Europe, develop our energy infrastructure and gradually eliminate our dependence on Russian energy carriers, which will make us stronger and our position more reliable,” Michelle says.

He also recalled the March decision of the EU leaders to phase out the association's dependence on Russian energy imports as soon as possible.

Then the European countries called on the European Commission to prepare by the end of March a plan designed to "ensure reliable supplies and affordable prices for energy."

• Informal summit of EU leaders in Versailles (March 10-11)

• AFP

• © Ian LANGSDON / POOL

These statements were made by the head of the European Council during a speech in northern Greece, where a ceremony was held in the presence of the leaders of the Balkan countries and the EU in honor of the start of the construction of a floating storage and regasification station for liquefied natural gas (FSRU).

The project is designed to reduce the EU's dependence on Russian gas.

In addition to Michel, the ceremony was attended by the Prime Ministers of Greece, Bulgaria, North Macedonia and the President of Serbia.

Serbian leader Aleksandar Vučić said that Belgrade is ready to buy large volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from this terminal in the future.

He also called the start of its construction "a very important event" for the entire region and the Western Balkans.

The course towards the refusal of Russian supplies

Recall that after the decision of the heads of the EU countries to eliminate dependence on Russian energy resources and the call to the EC to prepare appropriate proposals, the European Commission put forward a number of initiatives, in particular, they presented the idea of ​​a partnership between the European Union and third countries for the collective purchase of gas “at the EU level”.

In addition, the EC is ready to create a joint negotiating group under its leadership, which, according to European officials, can "prepare the ground for a future energy partnership" with key suppliers, and not only in gas.

However, Brussels acknowledges that there is no single "easy way" to overcome the problems of high electricity prices in the EU.

Despite a significant rise in energy prices in Europe, on April 8, the European Union approved the fifth package of sanctions against Russia, including an embargo on the import of Russian coal and other solid fossil fuels from the Russian Federation from August this year.

After that, the EU began to discuss the possibility of limiting the supply of oil and gas from Russia.

This, in particular, was reported by the head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell.

However, according to him, there is still no consensus on these issues in the EU.

Thus, Germany is ready to ban the supply of Russian oil until the end of the year and drastically reduce gas imports from the Russian Federation, as stated by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, noting that many countries supported anti-Russian sanctions, "despite the inevitable economic costs" for themselves.

Austria also announced its readiness to advocate for an EU embargo on oil from Russia.

However, Hungary and Slovakia spoke out against the initiative to abandon Russian oil and gas.

As Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto stated, his country's economy cannot be guaranteed to function smoothly without black gold from the Russian Federation.

He recalled that 65% of oil from Russia comes through the Druzhba pipeline, which has no alternative.

At the same time, Slovakia said that if the EU imposes an embargo on Russian oil imports, Bratislava intends to seek an exception for itself.

Deputy Prime Minister Richard Sulik stressed that the supply of black gold from the Russian Federation is vital for the Slovak economy.

• European Commission

• Gettyimages.ru

• © stevenallan

"They will be in short supply"

As Deputy Director General of the National Energy Institute Alexander Frolov noted in an interview with RT, Michel's words about the "new dawn of Europe's energy independence" should be regarded solely as a populist statement not connected with reality.

According to the expert, the European Commission came to a situation where it applied all the sanctions that could be introduced relatively painlessly for the EU, and began to approve restrictions that have an extremely negative impact on the EU economy.

“In particular, the embargo on Russian coal, and now the next step is a ban on oil from the Russian Federation.

Brussels no longer has room to maneuver.

The EU cannot stop, because for it it would mean defeat in the confrontation with Russia, but the continuation of the sanctions course will result in enormous problems for the economies of the EU countries and their residents, ”the analyst said.

According to Frolov, the opportunity to harm the Russian Federation is much more important for Brussels than the interests of its own citizens.

The expert believes that, in an unsuccessful attempt to crush the "Russian war machine", the EU "only shoots itself in the foot."

In turn, as Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund and an expert at the Financial University, noted, a struggle is now being played out in the EU between national states and supranational association bodies.

“Brussels is screaming that it has a solution, that it will do everything and replace Russian energy resources, and national governments are thinking how to live without them.

There will be problems with the oil embargo.

The EU may introduce such a ban, but will certainly postpone it until next year.

The calculation is made on the fact that Russia will simply exchange sales markets with someone else.

But the question is whether this exchange will have time to happen, ”he said in a comment to RT.

According to Yushkov, this is fraught with the fact that the Europeans "will experience a shortage of energy resources" and greatly overpay for them.

The analyst also explained that in order to replace oil from the Russian Federation, the EU needs to find exactly such black gold, which in terms of its characteristics and quality will not be inferior to Russian.

“Venezuela and Iran, which produced similar heavy oil, are under sanctions.

Therefore, there are not so many of those who produce such black gold, and the question is when the Europeans will be able to find someone, ”the expert said.

Frolov explained that now it is extremely difficult to find large suppliers in the energy market, including oil, since "the energy crisis is still in full swing."

“In this regard, to say that the EU will be able to easily abandon Russian oil and other energy resources is either some kind of excessive degree of naivety, or an attempt to put its political interests above the economic interests of all EU countries.

The association is already in a state of economic crisis, which will only get worse due to new anti-Russian sanctions,” the expert is sure.

• Gas pipes in Germany

• AFP

• © Ina FASSBENDER

At the same time, despite all the problems associated with the lack of energy resources, the EU will still impose sanctions against Russian oil “in one form or another,” even taking into account objections from Hungary and Slovakia, experts believe.

“If it fails at the EU level, then it will be accepted at the level of national governments.

Then we will see gray schemes, when oil from the Russian Federation is mixed with another and sold as if it is not Russian, ”said Yushkov.

gas issue 

At the same time, it will be even more difficult with gas in the EU, Yushkov is sure.

According to him, it is “simply impossible” to replace Russian blue fuel in the coming years.

“Here you can’t just take and exchange sales markets.

Gas is difficult to transport, and gas pipelines are impossible to transport.

This means that if the Europeans impose an embargo on blue fuel, they will actually be left without gas, and the alternative will not be affordable, since the cost of gas in the world will increase enormously.

Therefore, I do not think that in the coming years they will be able to refuse gas from the Russian Federation to the EU, ”the analyst predicted.

Frolov explained that even if a new LNG terminal in Greece is built quickly in two or three years, this will not make things easier for the EU in the face of the energy crisis and attempts to abandon Russian coal, oil and gas.

“Europeans are again stepping on the same rake as many years ago.

They are building LNG terminals, but where will the gas come from?

The problem is that blue fuel is not enough all over the world.

Without an increase in gas production, another LNG terminal will not help in any way.

In fact, this will only lead to increased competition in this market, ”the expert said.

Frolov also noted that there is simply not enough supply of liquefied natural gas in the world.

“There are no suppliers who are ready to deliver LNG to Europe if it does not start overpaying for it.

The EU is not the most popular market, as it is inferior to the market of the Asia-Pacific region, where gas is more expensive.

The EU can no longer keep prices even at the current level, and in principle, Europe is incapable of consistently attracting the necessary volumes of LNG, ”the analyst noted.

Frolov believes that Europe will be able to reduce its energy dependence on Russia only by reducing the consumption of gas and oil by consumers, which, in turn, will lead to the destruction of the EU industry.

“If we talk about maintaining the current level of consumption at the expense of alternative suppliers that could provide additional volumes of gas, then this is simply impossible.

Neither Nigeria or Angola with Senegal, with which the EU, according to media reports, wants to increase cooperation on LNG supplies, is able to replace the volumes of blue fuel that Russia supplies to the EU, ”the analyst said.

As Frolov noted, the Russian Federation, regardless of the decisions of Brussels, will gradually redirect its supplies to the Asian market, since the EU "has shown itself to be an unreliable partner."

“It cannot be ruled out that relations between Russia and the European Union may improve in the future, but until they return to normal, the Russian Federation will accelerate its turn to the east, where more energy resources are needed, and diversify its supplies,” the expert concluded.