The second half of this year will be the biggest political event in China.
The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party is the so-called 'Party Congress'.
This is where President Xi Jinping's third presidency is decided.
In fact, the prevailing view is that President Xi Jinping's reappointment has already been decided.
Rather, more attention is focused on those who will rise to the top leadership positions alongside President Xi.
Of course, it may be difficult for other leaders to have great power as the former collective leadership system has now changed to a virtually one-man leadership system by President Xi.
However, as the era of 'post-Xi Jinping' may be coming, it is worth keeping an eye on it.
Standing member 'age limit'... At least 2 out of 7 will change
China's supreme leadership is made up of seven members of the Standing Committee.
Its official name is the Standing Committee of the Central Politburo of the Communist Party.
This reflects the political system with Chinese characteristics that prioritizes the party over the state.
Currently, there are seven members of the Standing Committee of China: President Xi Jinping, Prime Minister Li Keqiang, Chairman Li Zhansu, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, President Wang Yang-hyeop, Secretary Wang Huning, Secretary of the Central Secretariat, Zhao Leji, Secretary of the Central Discipline Committee, and Deputy Prime Minister Han Han.
President Xi Jinping and former President Hu Jintao also served as members of the Standing Committee shortly before becoming president.
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An interesting point is that the age criterion is applied to the selection of this standing committee.
It is the so-called '7th, 8th'.
Remaining at age 67 and retirement at age 68 is an unwritten rule of Chinese standing committees.
Earlier, President Xi Jinping emphasized at a meeting of the Communist Party's Central Politburo in December last year that "the discipline of replacement must be strictly observed."
This was taken to mean that members of the Standing Committee over the age of 68 should retire.
The three members of the Standing Committee who will turn 68 this year are President Xi Jinping, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress Li Zhansu, and Deputy Prime Minister Han Jeong Han.
Since Xi himself will not step down, at least two standing members are likely to change.
In addition, the current 7 standing members may be increased to 9, or there may be replacements among standing members who have not reached the age of 68.
In this case, the range of fluctuations in the standing committee will be greater.
COVID-19 is a variable... Shanghai party secretary status 'shaken'
However, a variable arose in the appointment of this standing committee member.
That's COVID-19.
Among the candidates for the next leadership, one of the most talked about candidates was Shanghai Party Secretary Li Chang.
Party Secretary Li Chang worked together with President Xi Jinping in Zhejiang Province from 2002 to 2007, when he served as growth deputy and party secretary in Zhejiang.
He is considered one of Xi's closest aides.
In addition, the Shanghai Party Secretariats were considered to be on the road to success, with all but one of them becoming the Standing Committee members since 1987.
One person who did not become a member of the standing committee was a person who was imprisoned for corruption.
President Xi Jinping also served as party secretary in Shanghai in 2007.
To that extent, the appointment of Party Secretary Li Chang as a standing member was almost a win-win.
However, in recent years, the position has been greatly shaken.
Due to the lockdown in Shanghai due to the spread of COVID-19.
The Shanghai lockdown continues.
It's been almost 40 days.
It failed to prevent the initial spread, and post-mortem criticism followed that the lockdown was delayed.
Initially, the city was divided into east and west and the plan was to block it for only four days, but it ended up being a public flame.
Citizens' dissatisfaction is growing as it grows.
Articles 'I can't stand it' are overflowing on social media, and articles criticizing the Communist Party, which have been taboo in the past, are also being posted publicly.
In some cases, low-quality food was supplied to citizens, and even this was stolen by local officials.
Recently, a welfare facility tried to transport a living elderly person to a funeral by placing them in a body bag.
Public sentiment is on the verge of an explosion.
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Party secretary Li Chang visited the blockade area and received fierce protests from residents.
It was hard to imagine before.
The long-term lockdown of Shanghai, the largest city and economic capital of China, has had a negative impact on the overall Chinese economy.
The prevailing forecast is that China's economic growth rate will not reach 5.5% this year.
It could even lead to a crisis for the Xi Jinping regime.
This is why it is difficult to guarantee the promotion of Party Secretary Li Chang.
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Beijing party secretary 'injured'... Depends on whether the entire city is locked down
There are people who are relatively valued.
Tsai Qi is the Beijing Party Secretary.
Beijing responded more proactively to COVID-19 than Shanghai.
Even though there were only 47 cumulative infections, a large-scale PCR test was conducted.
The PCR test of 21 million citizens of all Beijing was done in one day, and furthermore, it is being done about once every two days.
Areas where confirmed cases have been confirmed are being managed separately.
During the Labor Day holiday (April 30 - May 4), one of China's golden holidays, we threw in a rare game that only allows food delivery, preventing dining at restaurants.
For this reason, the daily number of new infections in Beijing has been maintained at 30-60 since the 25th of last month.
Of course, Beijing's response may have learned a lesson from Shanghai.
Watching Shanghai, he thought, 'I can't do this,' so he responded quickly and looked at the public's feelings more.
In addition, it is only after the Labor Day holiday is over that we can properly judge whether or not the COVID-19 has spread.
Still, if you look at it so far, Beijing's response gives the impression that it is more precise and systematic than Shanghai.
The feared city-wide blockade like Shanghai has yet to happen.
It is true that Tsai Qi has been pushed aside not only by Shanghai Party Secretary Li Chang, but also by Ding Xuexiang, Director of the Central Committee, Chongqing Party Secretary Chen Min-eru, and Deputy Prime Minister Hu Chun-hua.
However, it is a trend that has recently risen to the surface.
Like Li Chang, Ding Xuexiang and Chen Min-er, he worked with Xi in Fujian and Zhejiang, even if they were not his closest aides.
As chairman of the organizing committee of the Beijing Winter Olympics, which is considered one of Xi's achievements, it was held 'successfully' according to China's assessment.
He is only 67 years old this year.
There is no age limit for standing committee members.
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However, Beijing is not yet relieved.
Now it comes to the end of the beginning stage.
There may be various other criteria for the selection of standing members.
What is clear is that the future of influential people can change as much as possible depending on the performance of quarantine.
Beijing will somehow try to prevent the entire city from being locked down.
Beijing is also home to top leadership, including President Xi Jinping.