[Interview] International Iranian expert "The risk of being captured in the Strait of Hormuz in June ↑"

This video is an interview with SBS, team leader Ali Vaez, an expert on Iranian issues at the International Crisis Management Group (ICG), a world-class conflict and conflict mediation research institute.

Last year, President Biden nominated ICG chief Robert Marley as special envoy to negotiating the restoration of the Iran nuclear deal.

Team Leader Baez visited Korea on the 25th at the invitation of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and held a meeting with First Vice Foreign Minister Choi Jong-gun for 4 nights and 5 days, a roundtable meeting with a domestic Middle East expert, and a special lecture at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.

This is my first visit to Korea.

Korean authorities saw the possibility of a 'second Korea Chemi incident' and took an emergency response.

On the 28th, Vice Foreign Minister Choi Jong-gun had a telephone meeting with US special envoy for Iranian nuclear negotiations, Robert Marley, while sharing the column with the US authorities and inviting Baez team leader to advise on the progress of the Iran nuclear negotiation.

Team leader Baez also conveyed to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that he was concerned about the high risk of Korean ships being captured in the Strait of Hormuz at the end of May or early June during this visit.

The Strait of Hormuz is the gateway through which more than 70% of Korea's oil imports from the Middle East pass through, and 20 to 30 Korean merchant ships pass through it every day.

If this road is blocked, it could pose a great threat to Middle East trade as well as the safety of our people.

Experts agree that the Korea-US summit, held the earliest in history since the inauguration of the president, is a decisive opportunity to overcome this situation.

He said that it is necessary to actively convey to the US that the Korean people and national interests may be at risk because of Iran's frozen crude oil export price to South Korea.

To draw attention, we are releasing a video that summarizes the main points of the interview with Team Leader Baez, and a slightly longer version of the full interview.

I visited with South Korean officials and experts to discuss the progress of the Iran nuclear restoration negotiations.

Unfortunately, Korea is in a very difficult situation.

As you know, one of Iran's largest frozen funds is in Korea.

South Korea is under tremendous pressure from Iran to lift these frozen assets.

However, the reality is that South Korean banks cannot return these frozen funds to Iran because negotiations to restore the nuclear agreement (discussing lifting sanctions on Iran) are in trouble and South Korea is participating in US sanctions against Iran. .

It's a very difficult situation.

Unfortunately, South Korea suffers collateral damage as it faces tremendous pressure from being sandwiched between the United States and Iran.

I have been researching and advising the US government on the Iranian nuclear issue for a long time at ICG, and this is my first visit to Korea to discuss and advise on the difficulties the Korean government is facing.

Kay An is no ordinary newspaper.

The person who wrote the column in question this time, the editor-in-chief and the president, is also not a typical writer.

In the media, the editor is appointed by Iran's supreme leader.

And in general, they act as spokespersons representing the positions and interests of the Iranian leadership.

So the threat they make is not blackmail.

This column shows the growing frustration of the Iranian bureaucracy over the economic situation in Iran.

The more it becomes clear that the restoration of the Iran nuclear deal is far away, the more likely it will be to ease Iran's economic sanctions.

With negotiations on the restoration of the nuclear agreement currently in trouble, they will choose to at least receive the price of frozen crude oil.

That is the background of the threat in the form of a column.

Iran is threatening to detain Korean ships and oil tanks crossing the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran controls.

Iran has actually used pressure tactics, such as taking hostages and attacking embassies.

Therefore, if the Iran nuclear deal is eventually broken and negotiations with the United States fail, tensions between Tehran and Seoul could be extremely high.

There were no specific deadlines mentioned.

The Biden administration, which has said that the deadline for negotiations to restore the Iran nuclear deal is getting closer, is now no longer talking about a deadline.

This is because the US and Europe, which are responding to the Ukraine crisis, do not want to manage both crises at the same time.

You set a deadline, and if you can't reach an agreement within it, you have to turn off the negotiation.

That also means facing the Ukraine crisis and the Middle East crisis in terms of potential nuclear threats.

Moreover, with the possibility that North Korea will also conduct a nuclear test sooner or later, facing the Iranian nuclear crisis would be a very difficult situation for any Western leader to avoid.

So they won't set any deadlines for negotiations to restore the nuclear agreement.

However, the reality is that the pressure of time does work nonetheless.

Iran's nuclear program is developing very quickly.

It takes only 10 days for Iran to enrich the fissile material to make a nuclear weapon.

This is a very short period of time compared to the 12 months it took at the time of the nuclear agreement in 2015.

By June or July, nuclear weapons production will be a matter of 'a few days'.

Since former President Trump broke the Iran nuclear deal, the international community has conducted far fewer nuclear inspections on Iran than before, so there may be a 'range of error' between the two inspections.

That margin of error means that Iran will be able to enrich fissile material to make nuclear weapons without international surveillance.

This is an unacceptable situation for the United States and Israel.

So there is a risk of a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities this summer.

Currently, Iran has an agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to resolve this issue, including an agreement to conduct a UN nuclear inspection in June.

This means that around June, the IAEA will have to take another sanctions against Iran for violating UN Security Council resolutions.

By this time, tensions between Iran and the West could be very high.

There is at most two or three months left before tensions on both sides soar.

Also, in Korea, a new government will take office soon, and President Biden will visit Korea within a month.

The Iranian government will want to test the new government.

Considering the time when these domestic and international reasons overlap, we fear that tensions between Iran and the West and between Iran and South Korea will become very high around the end of May or June.

The US currently believes that Iran should not benefit economically from any agreement.

So there is a negative trend in Washington about lifting South Korea's frozen assets.

I think there is a limit to what Korea can do to change their point of view.

However, it would be possible to repay these assets in a humanitarian way permitted by U.S. sanctions.

If the nuclear agreement is not restored, eventually a compromise will have to be found.

These frozen assets could include helping Iran buy food and medicines.

It would also be possible to have a prisoner exchange agreement between the United States and Iran that could include such a humanitarian agreement.

To help South Korea get out of this situation, there are options other than the restoration of the nuclear agreement.

But this will only happen if South Korean leaders, especially those in the new government, speak clearly with the Biden government.

Diplomatic warfare is urgently needed so that the South Korean government can fully convey that it is in a very difficult situation and that the United States as an ally can consider South Korea's interests.

Only in this way can we end this embarrassing and difficult situation in Korea.

Of course, even if South Korea tries to find a solution to the frozen funds, it will fall short of the Iranian government's expectations.

This is because Iran's recent installment payment to the UN as a solution to Iran's frozen funds problem is 10 million dollars, whereas the frozen funds in Korea are billions of dollars.

For Iran, which is suffering from severe economic difficulties due to economic sanctions, 10 million dollars will not be able to replace hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Iran now wants to lift all of its frozen funds.

Iran understands that if South Korea can provide Iran with frozen funds as a humanitarian repayment and that is exempt from US sanctions, it means that there is no longer any legal reason for the frozen funds to be tied to South Korea.

So, to get South Korea to release this asset, Iran is trying to put even more pressure on Seoul.

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So, don't miss out on Biden's visit to Korea.

Of course there will be many other major agendas.

We know that the North Korean issue will be the biggest, and the two leaders have a lot of agendas to deal with, from the Ukraine crisis to the global supply-only crisis to China and climate change.

However, the Iranian issue will always be a headache if the new leadership does not resolve it in advance through diplomatic efforts.

Ideally, the United States would be able to restore the original nuclear agreement, freeze Iran's nuclear program and provide very strong surveillance, while lifting sanctions and helping to restore the economy.

As part of this economic restoration, South Korea's release of its Iranian oil price freeze assets could be included.

If this is not possible for political reasons, the Biden administration may find compromises such as the aforementioned compromises or prisoner exchanges.

The Iranian government is very interested in putting pressure on the new South Korean government.

If I were a South Korean government official, I would definitely make the Iran provocation one of the top priorities and put it on the agenda at the Seoul Korea-US summit with President Biden.

(Video coverage: Park Dae-young / Editing: Cha Hee-joo / Production: D Content Planning Department)