On May 1, 2003, former US President George W. Bush announced his country's victory in the Iraq war, in a speech he delivered from aboard the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, pledging security and reconstruction. Despite this announcement, Iraq witnessed security turmoil with the escalation of armed resistance. .

Bush during a visit to his soldiers at Ain Al-Assad Air Base in Al-Anbar Governorate, Iraq in 2007 (French)

stages of the invasion

Available information on the plans for the invasion of Iraq and the timing of that indicated that there are 3 stages of the regime change process, according to Salem Al-Jumaili, director of the American division in the former Iraqi intelligence service.

Al-Jumaili shows to Al-Jazeera Net that the first stage is the military attack and the destruction of the capabilities of the Iraqi army within 45 days, to begin the second stage in the formation of the administration of the affairs of the occupation and the state, and then an interim government that will last 6 months, after which the third stage of reconstruction and construction begins, and a period of time has not been set for it.

He adds that after the destruction of the Iraqi war machine, Bush thought that he had fully extended his influence over Iraq, as that period witnessed a state of calm, and declared the end of military operations and the rules of engagement were changed.

Al-Jumaili considered that the Bush administration had an intelligence shortcoming in understanding what was going on secretly in Iraq (Al-Jazeera Net)

Al-Jumaili continues by saying, at the same time, resistance cells were forming, and the Bush administration had an intelligence failure in understanding what was going on in secret, and they thought that the Iraqis would have a position similar to that of some who welcomed the occupation.

Al-Jumaili points out that when no weapons of mass destruction or any evidence of Iraq's relationship with terrorism was found, the Bush administration launched the slogan "establishing freedom and peace" in the region, and after chaos descended on the country, they called the stage "creative chaos."

The former intelligence officer notes that the United States has lost about 3 trillion dollars, 5,000 American dead, and more than 40,000 wounded soldiers, not to mention the psychological and health problems of the members of the American army who participated in the war.

As a result, according to Al-Jumaili, Iraq has become a bankrupt country full of corruption, and a hotbed of terrorism and armed militias that threaten American national security and Washington's allies directly and very dangerously, and this is what was achieved by Bush's invasion of Iraq, as he put it.

Al-Bayati believes that the United States was surprised by the size of the Iraqi resistance (Al-Jazeera Net)

escalation of events

The United States was surprised by the size of the resistance, because they were not expecting that, especially after their easy entry into Iraq, says the security expert, strategist and former officer Sarmad Al-Bayati.

He adds to Al-Jazeera Net that the resistance operations began in western Iraq for clan reasons, when the tribes rejected the actions of the American forces, which they considered humiliating, then the resistance expanded to other regions and became very strong, but the Americans knew how to get rid of it by stirring up sectarian strife to begin a phase of internal fighting.

He expresses his belief that the United States erred in assessing the support that the resistance could receive, which received great support later, and caused painful blows to the Americans, according to Al-Bayati.

He attributes the reason for the escalation of the resistance's actions to Washington's failure to fulfill its obligations, as it did not provide electricity, a luxurious life, and many other promises that it did not implement, so it was expected that the resistance would escalate.

Izzo is likely that the United States deliberately left Iraq amid chaos and disorganization of the political situation (Al Jazeera Net)

US withdrawal

Some of the circumstances that led to the withdrawal of the American forces are related to the American interior, and some of them are related to the strikes that the American forces were receiving inside Iraq, says political science professor Dr. Mahmoud Ezzo.

He adds to Al Jazeera Net that the American forces did not perform their tasks optimally, but there was confusion in the American strategy in managing military operations in Iraq, and this matter was clear in 2007, after Iraq was completely out of American control as a result of the sectarian war, and therefore the number of forces was increased It cost the United States about 40,000 American soldiers, and these were new costs for American taxpayers, and this matter was costing the United States about 150 billion dollars annually, which is a very large number.

Izzo notes that the United States has begun to feel the great financial loss, in addition to the loss of the image of the invincible American soldier in front of the strikes it receives from the Iraqi armed groups, in addition to the great financial and military exhaustion caused by the collapse and rebellions in all Iraqi regions.

He continues that since 2008, the armed groups began to relax towards the American forces, and in return, the Iraqi forces became more powerful in that period, and there were government negotiations about the American withdrawal while preserving part of the forces for the purposes of logistical and intelligence support.

After the election of Barack Obama as President of the United States in 2009, one of the Democrats' promises at the time was to withdraw from Iraq, and this matter led to their withdrawal at the end of 2011, according to Ezzo.

It is likely that the United States deliberately left Iraq amid chaos and disorganization of the political situation, in addition to the security situation and the creation of the Iraqi environment at that time of the factors of exclusion and marginalization that increased the pace of protests and caused a near rupture between citizens and the state and things ended in the great security collapse in 2014.

Al-Azzawi believes that the problem is not in the presence of US bases in Iraq, but rather in the air cover (Al-Jazeera Net)

US rules

And about the survival of a number of US bases in Iraq, Representative Abdul-Khaleq Al-Azzawi told Al-Jazeera Net that the problem is not in the presence of the rules or the announcement of the withdrawal or not, but the real problem lies in the air cover, and there is an agreement to protect Iraqi airspace, but this agreement was violated by the coalition.

Hashem rules out the US administration's abandonment of its influence in Iraq (Al Jazeera Net)

grim scenario

For his part, Raad Hashem, a researcher in Iraqi affairs, ruled out the possibility of America relinquishing its influence in Iraq, with expectations of maneuvers between Iran and America on the impact of the nuclear program negotiations in Vienna.

The two parties may reach understandings by sharing roles between them for their interests and influence in Iraq, and Iran may sacrifice some of its influence in exchange for promises to lift sanctions and return them to the international community.

Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, Hashem warned of the bleak scenario that may happen if the Vienna negotiations fail, as Iran will go to push its tools to harass American interests wherever they are, in a dangerous escalation that will reflect on the region and threaten international trade routes, stressing the need for Iraq and the countries of the region to give this The scenario is very important in order to avoid it.