When the "Islamic State" (IS) threatened new terrorist attacks in its most recent propaganda message, it combined this with the explicit reference that the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine came in very handy.

The terrorist organization's new spokesman, Abu Omar al-Muhajir, said the time was propitious for the "vengeance campaign" to avenge the death of former ISIS leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi in early February died in a US anti-terrorist operation in north-western Syria.

Christopher Ehrhardt

Correspondent for the Arab countries based in Beirut.

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The "barbarity of the Russians" forced the West into a war that it actually wanted to avoid, according to the audio message from mid-April.

The enemy are now fighting among themselves.

Warnings are already coming from western security agencies not to lose sight of IS despite the war in Ukraine.

The terrorist organization may be significantly weakened, but it remains a threat - especially in Syria and Iraq.

This is also the finding of a Pentagon report published a few days after the commando action against the IS leader.

IS maintains a presence in Iraq and Syria, conducting guerrilla operations in sparsely populated, impassable areas while looking for ways to infiltrate urban centers in both countries.

IS war chest well stocked

In the months following the report, IS terrorist attacks from Syria and Iraq were regularly reported.

According to a UN report from last year, around 10,000 IS fighters are still active in the two countries.

Observers from Raqqa, Syria, say there are countless sleeper cells there.

According to intelligence services, the terrorist organization's war chest is still well stocked.

The American-led anti-IS coalition announced in December that IS still had cash reserves of between 25 and 50 million dollars.

The organization generates hundreds of thousands of dollars a month in Iraq and Syria through looting, extortion and ransom.

However, ISIS's monthly expenses in the region exceeded its revenues "by several hundred thousand dollars."

Developments in the region are playing into the hands of IS

The distraction caused by the war in Eastern Europe is not the only problem for the West's fight against terrorism.

Developments in its heartland in the Levant are also playing into the hands of IS.

The terrorist organization benefits from the fact that the state is failing there and the economic hardship of the population is increasing.

The situation in Syria is particularly dramatic.

Ruler Assad continues to squeeze his battered country relentlessly, while at the same time his security forces have bled dry.

In the north-east, which is controlled by Kurdish forces, there is not only economic hardship but also resentment among the Arab population at the dominance of the Kurds.

The IS already took advantage of this when it attacked a makeshift prison in Hassakeh at the end of January and plunged the city into chaos for days.

In Iraq, on the other hand, a large-scale military operation against the IS is currently underway, but politics is also paralyzed by internal power struggles.

And in Lebanon, where things have been comparatively quiet about IS for a long time, worrying reports have recently multiplied.

Dozens of young men from the slums of the port city of Tripoli disappeared;

some were found dead as IS fighters in Iraq.

“Me and my friends keep hearing that people who are poor are disappearing.

A friend of mine was offered $2,000 to fight in Iraq,” says a young man from one of the lower-class neighborhoods there.

The economic pressure in the region is increasing because of the war in Ukraine.

Societies are hit hard by the rising prices for heating oil, fuel and grain.

When even the "bread diet" that many are already forced to eat becomes unaffordable, IS recruiters will find it easier to recruit the desperate.

In addition, the morale of the impoverished security forces falls with the purchasing power.

In Syria, Russia, a decisive protective power of the regime, accepts the weakening of the security apparatus as a bargaining chip.

Moscow is recruiting fighters there on several fronts for deployment in Ukraine.

Hosts are not.

According to information from Western governments and local observers, about 300 "homeland defense" militia officers have volunteered.

There is no confirmation yet that they have been transferred to the Ukrainian front.

They shouldn't make a decisive difference in the war there either.

But Assad can urgently use every single man.

Western security authorities are concerned not only about developments in the Levant or in Afghanistan, where IS is also gaining ground, but also about migration movements to Europe.

Should these increase again, when people's needs worsen, it would be easier for terrorists to get to Europe unnoticed.

The most recent propaganda message left no doubt that the West remains a target.

Among other things, it aimed to incite lone jihadist perpetrators to carry out attacks: "Rise up in the squares, hit the infidels by killing, trampling, stabbing and hitting them."