American analyst William Reinsch:

The impact of sanctions on Russia takes months and years, not weeks

Putin will not feel the effect of sanctions now.

À EPA

The file of US sanctions against Russia imposes itself severely on the political, economic, and perhaps military discussion tables in the United States, with the imposition of a new package of these sanctions, in coordination with the European Union and the Group of Seven major industrialized countries, due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and its involvement in acts described by various sources as brutal. In many Ukrainian cities.

Scholl Professor of International Business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, William Reinsch, says in an analysis published by the center on its website, that eight weeks after the start of the Russian invasion, and the imposition of successive packages of sanctions on Moscow, some conclusions can be reached about those sanctions that imposed by the United States and its allies and friends.

Reinsch, who served for 15 years as head of the US National Council on Foreign Trade, which is concerned with encouraging open markets, supporting the US Export-Import Bank, and opposing unilateral sanctions, adds that the sanctions imposed on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine can be classified into four categories, the first of which are financial sanctions, It includes exclusion from the international banking management system “SWIFT”, freezing of assets, deprivation of tax benefits, and the second of import sanctions, which includes imposing restrictions on imports coming from Russia, depriving it of the benefits of the World Trade Organization, imposing a ban on some imports, and then export sanctions These include imposing restrictions on exports and the flow of capital into Russia, and finally preventing Russia from using the airspace and airports of countries that imposed sanctions on Moscow, confiscating and freezing the assets of wealthy Russians linked to President Vladimir Putin's regime, and depriving Russia of participating in international sporting and cultural events.

The threat of sanctions failed

One could argue that as long as the threat of all these sanctions failed to prevent Russia from invading Ukraine, it is considered a failure.

In fact, the most effective of sanctions is achieved when the threat of them prevents the target party from taking the action that was rejected in the first place.

And if the threat of sanctions does not achieve the required deterrence, as happened with Russia now, the United States and its allies are on the defensive from the start, so it is important to clearly define the goals of the sanctions, if the goal is to force the opponent to change his mind and withdraw, then the matter will not happen with Russia.

But if the goal is to inflict great immediate pain on the opponent, with a pledge to impose more subsequent sanctions, in the hope that this will lead to a change in the opponent’s position later, then it is not yet possible to assess the effectiveness of the ongoing sanctions, and this cannot be verified soon , so the most that can be done now for the observer is to comment on the effective and ineffective aspects of sanctions.

Quick effects on the financial sector

Reinsch says that most observers were surprised by the rapid effects of sanctions on Russia, especially on the financial sector.

In general, the United States and its allies showed strength and unity in implementing sanctions in ways that exceeded everyone's expectations, including Putin.

At the same time, it became clear that these sanctions will have their effects in the long run, adding that they can inflict severe damage on the Russian economy, but it will take months and years, not weeks.

The main reason limiting the strength of the rapid effects of sanctions on Russia is the loopholes in the sanctions on imports.

Europe is still importing natural gas and oil from Russia, because Europe cannot dispense with Russian supplies of the two commodities, despite its realization that the continued import of Russian oil and gas provides Moscow with huge cash flows that help its economy in defying sanctions and financing the military operation in Ukraine.

The obvious lesson for Europe became that "without hope there are no gains".

long term effects

The effects of restrictions on exporting or investing in Russia will also be long-term, because Russia now has enough to continue the war in the short term.

Sanctions will deprive it of making up for what it loses, as well as of the technology it will need to keep its military machine running.

This means that these sanctions will succeed in the long run if they are continued strictly.

There are always loopholes in the implementation, and it will depend a lot on China's actions, because the sanctions include Chinese exports that contain technology that it uses from Western countries, where observers expect that China will not fully comply with the sanctions, as is the case in most similar cases.

Finally, William Reinsch, who worked as an undersecretary for the US Department of Commerce for Export Affairs during the era of former US President Bill Clinton, sees that the new positive feature in the ongoing war is “self-punishment”, as we find many companies and bodies deciding to voluntarily punish Russia, in light of the actions The brutality committed by the Russian forces in Ukraine, documented by many Ukrainians in audio and video, and spread it to the world.

• The most effective sanctions are achieved when the threat of sanctions prevents the target party from taking the action that was rejected in the first place.

And if the threat of sanctions does not achieve the required deterrence, as has happened with Russia now, the United States and its allies are on the defensive from the start.

• Europe cannot dispense with Russian supplies of the two commodities, despite its realization that the continued import of Russian oil and gas provides Moscow with huge cash flows that help its economy in defying sanctions and financing the military operation in Ukraine.

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