The upcoming parliamentary elections are the first political challenge facing the French president
Macron will not enjoy a "honeymoon" in his second term .. in turbulent France
Macron supporters celebrate his victory.
EPA
Many problems await Macron after winning a second term.
EPA
picture
Emmanuel Macron may have outdone far-right leader Marine Le Pen, but his second term in France's presidency may be more complicated with rising political opposition and social ferment.
As his supporters painstakingly celebrated his re-election in a rally next to the Eiffel Tower last Sunday, Macron acknowledged in his victory speech that many of those who voted for him did so to prevent Le Pen from becoming president, not because they supported his ideas.
"No one will suffer neglect and marginalization, the next period will not be like the previous term, we will explore together a new path of achievement for five better years," Macron said, standing next to his wife Brigitte.
The next hurdle that Macron must overcome is only a few weeks away.
Parliamentary elections next June will determine the form of government on which reform plans will be based, which will mark an unprecedented change in France's social welfare programmes.
It is customary for newly elected presidents to obtain a majority in parliament when legislative elections come immediately after the presidential vote due to the generally low participation of supporters of defeated candidates.
defiant tone
However, Le Pen made a defiant tone in her acknowledgment of defeat, pledging a strong opposition bloc in Parliament, while the hard-left Jean-Luc Melenchon seeks to become prime minister after receiving the bulk of the left's vote in the first round of the presidential election.
Melenchon hopes to take advantage of this momentum in the parliamentary elections and force Macron to deal with him as the leader of the left-wing majority in parliament, a difficult symbiosis that may not survive.
Even if Macron's allies win a majority, or reach an agreement to form an effective coalition, he will also have to deal with street rejection of his reform plans, particularly a pension reform that will gradually raise the minimum retirement age to 65 from 62.
lame duck
Pensions are always a hot issue in France, and Macron's low vote turnout against Le Pen compared to the 2017 election means he won't have the same power he had five years ago to implement reforms, even though he has become the only French president to win a second term in two decades. .
"His election is a choice dictated by circumstances," Christopher Dembek, an economist at Saxo Bank, told Reuters.
He may turn into a lame duck in the face of great social discontent if he wants to implement sensitive reforms like pensions.”
And in a possible sign of trouble for Macron, angry voters repeatedly warned him about pension reform during the election campaign.
The head of France's Socialist-backed General Confederation of Workers (CGT), Philippe Martinez, warned Macron that he would not have a "honeymoon" and should expect protests if he did not back down completely.
Another thorny issue that Macron must contend with in the wake of the election is the massive rise in energy prices.
Macron's government capped electricity prices and offered consumer discounts until after the election.
Macron said during the campaign that he would protect voters as long as necessary, but did not offer a timetable.
costly measures
So far, it is clear that the costly measures will have to be lifted at some point.
Meanwhile, lawmakers say voters are already complaining about the rising prices of all kinds of staples, such as Ukrainian-made sunflower oil, rice and bread.
In 2018, rising consumer prices caused the worst social unrest in France since the 1968 student revolution, as "yellow vest" protests caused months of unrest in Paris and various squares in France.
So Macron will have to tread carefully if he does not want the situation to explode again.
His first term was riddled with public relations errors that made him appear arrogant or arrogant.
Not many French like him, and a man told him in the face during the election campaign that he was "the worst president of the Fifth Republic."
Political allies warn that Macron will need to consult legislators, unions and civil society more and do away with the top-down style of governance that marked his first term and which he himself described as "Jupiter".
"Emmanuel Macron received the message, to the effect that he cannot decide everything from above, because he is not the head of a company," Representative Patrick Vignal told Reuters.
He needs to accept the idea of negotiation and consultation.
• Macron may face protests if pension reforms are approved.
• Volatile energy prices and popular disapproval may fuel unrest.
• Le Pen voiced a defiant tone in her defeat speech, pledging the presence of a strong opposition bloc in Parliament, while the hard-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon seeks to become prime minister after receiving the bulk of the left's votes in the first round of the presidential elections.
• In 2018, high prices for consumers caused the worst social unrest in France since the student revolution in 1968, as the "yellow vests" protests caused unrest that lasted for several months in Paris and various squares of France.
What will happen after the French presidential elections?
French voters handed Emmanuel Macron a second term as president, in an election in which he handily defeated far-right leader Marine Le Pen.
Here are the relevant developments that can be expected in the run-up to the legislative elections in June, which will determine whether Macron will have a parliamentary majority that will enable him to pass his policies.
■ first steps
The French Constitutional Court will officially announce the results of the presidential elections on 27 and 28 April.
Around this time, the government of Prime Minister Jean Castilles could submit its resignation.
If Macron accepts it, he could choose a new prime minister to form a transitional government until the June elections.
The swearing-in ceremony is scheduled to take place before Macron's current term ends on May 14.
Macron said his first foreign trip after the vote would be to Berlin, to meet German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
This may happen in the next few days.
Macron is also scheduled to present his vision for the future of Europe at a conference in Strasbourg on May 9.
■ Parliamentary elections
From May 16-20, candidates from all parties are expected to register to compete for 577 seats in the parliamentary elections.
The first round is scheduled for June 12.
In constituencies where no candidate wins by an absolute majority, a run-off will take place a week later.
Candidates can run into a run-off if they win at least 12.5% of the vote in the first round.
Macron could theoretically dissolve the current parliament early and bring the election forward by two weeks, thus possibly using the momentum from his presidential victory in hopes of winning more seats in parliament.
■ next government
After parliamentary elections, French presidents usually choose a new prime minister from the party that receives the most votes to form a new government.
The president's party won a majority in the last legislative elections.
If the outcome is different this time, Macron will have no choice but to name a prime minister from another party, which could lead to what has usually been a tense period of coexistence, during which presidential powers are severely restricted.
During this period of coexistence, the president remains the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, and retains some influence in foreign policy, but the government manages most of the day-to-day affairs of the state.
Paris ■ Reuters
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