Create a new country? What does Russia want from the battles of eastern and southern Ukraine?

MOSCOW -

With the Russian-Ukrainian war entering its third month, and hopes of achieving a political breakthrough on the already faltering line of negotiations, which was explicitly evident in the failure of the truce on the occasion of Orthodox Easter, the nature of the battles and their arenas began to raise questions about whether Ukraine would remain the same from Regional, social, demographic, and even economic.

What reinforced the seriousness of these questions was the statement by the commander of the Central Military District, Major General Rustam Minnikaev, that one of the goals of the second phase of the special operation is the Russian army’s full control of Donbass and southern Ukraine, to secure a land corridor to the Crimea, as well as “influencing” the Vital sites of the Ukrainian economy.

The second phase

Hence, it seems that Moscow has raised its stakes in the conflict with Kyiv, by highlighting the second stage of the military operation, and the price it bears, which may be very costly to the neighboring country.

The imposition of complete control over Donbass and southern Ukraine, and the provision of a land corridor to the Crimea, would constitute - if it happened - the biggest blow directed at the territorial integrity of Ukraine in history.

It is also worth noting in this context the additional dimensions of the statements of the Russian general for the second phase of the Russian military operation, when he said that controlling southern Ukraine is a new corridor to reach Transnistria (an area that was within the Republic of Moldova before declaring its unilateral separation from it in general). 1991, and its status is very similar to that of Donbass).

cut an artery

A member of the Council of Inter-Ethnic Relations of the Russian presidency, Bogdan Bezpalko, denies the existence of a plan to divide Ukraine by controlling its southern and eastern regions.

But he stressed, in a television seminar, the need for Moscow to continue carrying out the special military operation in Ukraine so that it can reach the western borders of this country, because only then will NATO stop supplying Kyiv with weapons and military technologies.

Syrian scenario

As for Colonel Reserve Vitaly Litovkin, he explains that the attack of the Russian armed forces continues along the front lines, but it is not as fast as many would like, because it is based on "Syrian tactics", by "cutting and grinding fortifications and moving forward", and at the same time, ensuring maximum levels Safety of personnel and equipment, before entering into the dismemberment operations between Ukrainian cities and regions.

Litovkin indicates - in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net - that the Zaporizhia region has become completely subject to Russian forces, which have partially entered the Dnipropetrovsk region.

He continues that after the complete control of Donbass, it is possible to go to the east, southeast and south in Ukraine.

According to him, the south is Mykolaiv and Odessa, and from a military point of view they are more important than Kyiv, and the priority should be to control them, because they have NATO bases, and controlling them means depriving the Alliance and the "Kyiv regime" of "vital capabilities".

It is expected that in the near future we will witness the advance of Russian forces to Mykolaiv, and at the same time cut off Odessa, without a ground attack, and content with the use of missiles, artillery and aviation.

Occupation or consolidation of influence?

In turn, the director of the International Center for Political Analysis, Denis Krkodinov, believes that the threat to "cut up Ukraine" can fall within the context of interim political tactics, and not strategic goals.

And he continues his talk - to Al Jazeera Net - that Russia has no intention of "occupying Ukraine", but rather that (Russia) becomes a center of influence, and a country whose interests are taken into account in Washington, London and the whole world, and that what is happening in Ukraine is evidence that Russia is ready to act decisively and resolute.

The spokesman places the control of Kherson in the context of securing fresh water supplies to the Crimea, and not "extracting" it from Ukraine, considering it an economic achievement before it is a military one.

But he did not rule out that the geography of the Ukrainian state would change in an advanced stage of the war, especially after all bridges between Russia and the West were burned, and the absence of any compromise between the two poles regarding the Ukrainian crisis.

He also did not rule out that what he described as the "Ukrainian drama" would be the first step to creating new geopolitical balances that would pave the way for the formation of a new international order, in which Russia would guarantee a return - at a minimum - to the borders of the Cold War era.