• With 58.5% of the vote, Emmanuel Macron won the presidential election against Marine Le Pen on Sunday.

  • The political class is now turning to the legislative elections, scheduled for June 12 and 19.

  • This seven-week campaign promises to be high risk for the outgoing majority.

The election barely completed, another begins.

In the aftermath of the presidential election won by Emmanuel Macron, the political world is turning to the legislative battle, on June 12 and 19.

“I am convinced that the French will give the President of the Republic the means to act to protect them, with a majority” in the National Assembly, assured government spokesman Gabriel Attal, this Monday on BFMTV.

But this campaign, which will stretch for seven long weeks (against five usually), looks more tricky than expected for the majority.

A risk of shortness of breath

The French traditionally grant a majority to the newly elected President of the Republic.

But the almost two months of campaign to come, interspersed with school holidays and the bridges of Ascension and Pentecost, could break the traditional dynamic of the presidential result.

“We will have more time.

But it is a re-election so there will be no blind wave like in 2017, where the image of Emmanuel Macron allowed almost anyone to be elected, ”admits Roland Lescure, MP LREM of the French in North America and spokesperson for En Marche.

“It will be more tedious, we expect it and we are preparing for it.

This majority, we will have to go get it, ”says Saché Houlié, LREM deputy for Vienne.

“This campaign will be longer and cut by public holidays.

It will be our job and our responsibility to mobilize, to respond to the democratic challenge with the new method announced by the president, ”he adds.

Already a dumpling on the 49-3

From its first day, the campaign of the outgoing majority opened with a controversy.

The Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire did not rule out the idea, this Monday morning, of a forced passage for the explosive pension reform, via the use of 49-3.

"I can't give this guarantee, I don't want it, that's for sure," he said on Franceinfo.

A sentence sufficiently ambiguous to trigger the anger of the opposition and cause the majority to backpedal.

"It's not a mistake, it's false information.

It is neither planned nor desirable, ”sweeps Sacha Houlié.

The controversy shows that the seven long weeks of campaigning will not be easy for the majority.

The traditional “state of grace” of the Head of State is therefore more than ever threatened.

“There is always a risk, it does not depend on the duration of the campaign.

We remember Jean-Louis Borloo's social VAT in 2007, on the evening of the first round of the legislative elections...", adds Houlié.

Nicolas Sarkozy's minister had announced that evening a rise in VAT to everyone's surprise, which would have caused, according to some right-wing elected officials, a loss of 80 seats by majority.

The opposition has more time to organize

This campaign also gives the opposition more time to mobilize, work on their strategy and refine alliances.

On the left, the dialogue thus seems well on its way to finding common candidates.

With his 22% in the first round of the presidential election, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is already dreaming of Matignon for next June.

Marine Le Pen also hopes to impose cohabitation on Emmanuel Macron.

“There is a bad loser side to them, and a desire for hegemony from their own camp,” whistles Sacha Houlié.

“It is true that it is a third round.

Because to preside well, you have to govern well, and therefore have a majority.

What bothers me a bit is that they seem to question the legitimacy of the elected president, ”says Roland Lescure.

According to two polls published on Sunday, a majority of French people would not like Emmanuel Macron to win the next legislative elections.

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  • Legislative elections 2022

  • Presidential election 2022

  • Emmanuel Macron

  • The Republic on the March (LREM)

  • Jean-Luc Melenchon

  • Marine Le Pen