Jörgen Elving is of the opinion that not much is happening in Ukraine at the moment.
This is in line with information from, among others, the British Ministry of Defense.
But when the Orthodox Easter is over, he thinks a major offensive awaits.
- What they are now doing from the Russian side is "shaping the battlefield", that is, shaping the battlefield by fighting Ukrainian staffs, units and Ukrainian military infrastructure, and then advancing their own units and making sure that maintenance services and other functions work, before launches a major attack.
For the Russian battle command is in dire need of time.
Several sources have pointed to May 9 as an important date.
Then "Victory Day" is celebrated where the victory over the Nazis during the Second World War is celebrated with large military parades all over Russia.
A date that is getting closer.
- If I had been the Russian military chief, I would have been stressed to say the least, says Jörgen Elfving.