[Explanation] It has been two months since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict.
How do you view the current situation?
What are the prospects for the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine?
Recently, Ye Hailin, deputy dean of the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an exclusive interview with China News Agency that since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, there have been "two unexpected developments" on the battlefield.
[Concurrent] Ye Hailin, Deputy Dean of the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
The first "unexpected" is that the Russian army did not use the blitzkrieg method to solve the problem, and the other "unexpected" is that the sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia did not produce fundamental results, so Russia now has a kind of incompatibility on the battlefield. An eagerness to solve the problem.
[Commentary] Ye Hailin believes that the second stage of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict began to focus on the Donbass region, and from the current positions of Russia and Ukraine, even if Russia wins the war over the Donbass region, the conflict will not End soon.
[Concurrent] Ye Hailin, Deputy Dean of the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
If Western countries continue to support Ukraine to fight, it can be fought. On the surface, it is a war between Russia and Ukraine on the ground. This war will always end. Whether it is in the Donbass or elsewhere, the outcome will be decided. In fact, this war cannot be fought. For too long, but behind it is the wrestling between the United States and the West and Russia, mainly in the economic field.
[Explanation] There is a high probability that this war will continue in the form of "fight and talk". Ye Hailin believes that the prospect of peace talks between the two sides is subject to checks and balances by a third party.
[Concurrent] Ye Hailin, Deputy Dean of the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
"Talking" includes those who talk on the surface and those who talk behind the scenes, those who talk openly and those who talk privately, and those who talk directly and indirectly.
What I want to talk about openly and talk about directly is not decisive, it is precisely what I talk about in private, especially what I talk about indirectly is decisive.
That is, the United States and Russia will contact each other in an indirect way on the Ukraine issue, showing each other their cards and testing the bottom line.
If a mutually acceptable outcome can be reached, the war may end, but it is difficult to achieve a decisive outcome just from the direct and open channels of talks between the Ukrainian and Russian governments.
[Explanation] What is the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the world?
Ye Hailin said that the war is still going on, and there is no rush to comment at the moment, and the result of the war has structural significance on the so-called global pattern.
[Concurrent] Ye Hailin, Deputy Dean of the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
As things stand, (the real decisive factor in the conflict) is between the United States and Russia.
The central question is how this conflict will end, but either way, it will be a huge change.
For the current international situation, the world after the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be different from the world before the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
[Commentary] Ye Hailin believes that in this war, the international community can play an important role in persuading peace and promoting talks, and at the same time, it should be careful to avoid mistakes.
[Concurrent] Ye Hailin, Deputy Dean of the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Under the current situation, it is the most basic not to smother the fire, and the minimum is not to add chaos.
As for the extent to which it can persuade peace and promote talks, on the one hand, it depends on the goodwill of the international community, and it is not possible to "choose sides" and "build walls easily"; Defined as before or after February 24, the entire Russian-Ukrainian conflict has its historical context and latitude and longitude. It is not objective to choose a time period at random and use this time period as the starting point of things.
(Reporter Ma Jiajia and Shan Lu reported in Beijing)
Responsible editor: [Ji Xiang]