The day after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the message came from Moscow - if Sweden and Finland join NATO, Russia may need to take retaliatory action.

Albin Aronsson is a security policy analyst at FOI, the Swedish Defense Research Agency.

He sees it as unlikely that Russia would make an armed attack on Sweden if we apply to NATO.

However, he believes that they will show their dissatisfaction.

- It is probably about deployments of robots around the Baltic Sea.

They may also fly in the Baltic Sea to a greater extent.

Possibly one can imagine a cyber attack on Sweden or even that they violate Swedish airspace, he says.

Takes several months

The application period to NATO will probably take several months.

First, a form of form must be submitted.

After that, 30 member countries will discuss and decide whether Sweden may join or not.

At the same time, Denmark and the United Kingdom, among others, have said that they will help Sweden in the event of an attack.

But that does not convince researcher Albin Aronsson.

- The British Minister of Defense Ben Wallace can be on TV and say "we will help Sweden".

But if it is not on paper, then it does not apply.

We all live in the rule of law.

A defense clause is needed for it to actually be binding.

That is when Chapter Five of NATO comes into the picture.

"This is scary"

Albin Aronsson therefore does not believe that Russia will attack Sweden if we choose to send in a NATO application.

But he believes that defense guarantees are required during the application period.

For example, placement of conventional forces in the Baltic Sea to convey the message that Sweden receives help in the event of an attack.

Another example could be promises from the major powers in NATO, the United States, Great Britain and France, to be included in a so-called nuclear umbrella. 

- It is thus not about nuclear weapons on Swedish territory, but that these powers would guarantee that they could defend with nuclear weapons if someone attacked Sweden.

- This is scary.

Nuclear weapons are very terrifying.

But on an overall level, many believe that nuclear weapons have a stabilizing effect by deterring them.

Five questions about Swedish NATO membership

  • Is there any country that does not want Sweden to join?

    29 sec

  • What happens if Finland joins but not Sweden?

    37 sec

  • What do NATO gain from Sweden and Finland becoming members?

    35 sec

  • Which country is most important to NATO?

    15 sec

  • Are there only benefits to more members?

    31 sec