It has been about two months since Russia's military invasion of Ukraine began.
How will this war come to an end?
And what about the world order?
We asked Professor Hiroshi Nakanishi of Kyoto University Graduate School, who specializes in international politics and is familiar with the history of security, about possible future scenarios and the risks that the world is currently facing.
Thinking in world history, he warns that "the division of the international community has passed the irreparable part."
"Invisible to the exit, in a" will-to-will conflict ""
Q. Russian troops continue to attack missiles and kill them horribly.
What do you think of the current location of the war?
"The aspect of the war is becoming more and more confused. I think that the factors that are going on for a long time are getting stronger and the exit is not visible."
"Given the courage of the Ukrainian people, led by President Zelensky, the inhumane disaster of Ukraine, I think it is natural for human beings to have the desire to end this war as soon as possible. I think it is certain that there are people who are imposing severe economic sanctions on Russia and expect the war to end. "
"But I think this war has already become a war for the survival of the regime from President Putin's point of view. Even if it becomes financially difficult or if there is a certain counterattack in Ukraine, the original military goal I think that ending with the impression of being defeated without achieving the above will immediately lead to the upset of the administration. It is said that it is a goal, and I think it is highly possible, but it is unlikely that Russia will offer a stoppage there, and Ukraine will never receive it, if at all. I think Russia understands that there is no such thing. This war has become a "fight between will and will" between Russia and Ukraine, and it is not so easy to end so far. I don't think I can think of it. "
What's next ... The key "three scenarios"
Q. What are your thoughts on this war and future scenarios?
Scenario (1) Prolongation / truce
"Of course, there are many unpredictable factors about what will actually happen, so I think there are many small scenarios, but I think there are three main categories. One is the long-term battle between Russia and Ukraine. It is a pattern of becoming one. This basically continues until one of the wars has the ability to continue, and the battle boundary at that time becomes one agreement and the battle ends. "
"In the Korean War that began in 1950, the 38th parallel north became a truce line and is still continuing, but in the first place, the 38th parallel was the United States and the Soviet Union after the end of World War II. Each was set as a border to occupy the Korean Peninsula. However, in this case, the Crimea Peninsula was annexed in addition to this war, and conflicts occurred in the eastern region under the influence of Russia. It continued. Since it is an area where there is no clear boundary line geographically, I think it is very difficult to agree to draw a clear line of truce and settle down. In that sense, we are approaching a cessation of war to some extent. However, I think the first pattern is that the battle between the two countries will gradually converge in the form that the conflict will continue as if the fire continues to smolder. "
Scenario (2) War expansion
"The second pattern is that the war will expand and escalate for some reason, and I think there is a danger that it will lead to World War III. It is possible that Russia will counterattack from Ukraine. At that time, we also used weapons of mass destruction, chemical weapons, biological weapons and, in some cases, tactical nuclear weapons. It's a pattern of entering a state of engagement. "
"Also, the situation in Ukraine has become a disadvantage for the West, NATO will provide a higher level of military support, and Russia will counterattack against NATO forces in areas close to Ukraine such as Poland. I think there is a possibility that NATO and Russia will enter into a full-scale battle by launching an attack on Ukraine. Historically, in 1941 Germany succumbed to Britain in a battle with Europe. In a situation where it was not possible, a war against the Soviet Union, the so-called "German-Soviet war," was started. It is historically possible to think that expanding the number of people will create some kind of opportunity. "
Scenario (3) Putin's administration collapses
"The third is a scenario in which the political system is upset in Russia and the Putin administration collapses. So far, I don't think this possibility is as high as the West expects. The system is so strong that there is no domestic political force to rebel, and even within the administration, Putin's government-based group called Shirobiki, or the Russian army, are all under Putin's control. It is unlikely that a coup d'etat or a rebellion will easily occur from there. However, it should be noted that even if the Putin system collapses, peace may easily come after that. Is not so expensive. "
"In 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, each republic that was already in the Soviet Union had a Communist Party government, which changed its mind and became a nationalist political force. The administration was transferred from the president Gorbachev to the president of the Russian Republic, Elitzin, but there is no such administration in Russia today, so Putin will be driven out by something like a court coup. Or, even if the Putin administration collapses due to the rebellion of the people, I think it is unlikely that the administration will be peacefully transferred after that. "
Q. Which of these three scenarios do you think is most likely at the moment?
"At this point, I think (1) is high, but in (2), even if it doesn't suddenly become World War III, I think there is a possibility that the front will be expanded (3). I think the possibility is that this battle will last for a certain period of time, but for now I think the probability is low. "
"Now," 30 years of crisis ", the division of the international community"
Q. From a historical point of view, what era does the current situation resemble?
"History never repeats, but it rhymes." The same thing as in the past cannot happen, but similar things can be seen in different times. I think it's not a good analogy, but I think it's close to the interwar period between World War I and World War II. British historian and political scientist EH Carr is in this interwar period. I called the period "20 years of crisis" and wrote a book. This is the first book that I remembered when this happened. The last 30 years after the end of the Cold War is "the crisis". I think that the world stands in the "rhyme", which could be a big war in "30 years". "
Q. How will the composition of the world change due to this war?
"The kind of framework for international cooperation that was created at the end of the Cold War has come to an end, and the ongoing division of the international community in the 2010s has now become decisive in a sense. I think we've passed the irreparable part. "
"It is certain that the United States and China are the largest chunks, and I think there are allies and countries that are economically closely related to each other. I think China has much less control and influence over the world. In the 2010s, Russia's merger with Crimea in 2014, China's expansion into the South China Sea, and national security over Hong Kong. The enactment of the maintenance law, the pressure on the Western alliance by the Trump administration, the impact on the economic cooperation system, the UK's withdrawal from the EU ... I think we were heading in the direction of division from unity. "
"This time Russia's invasion of Ukraine did not work for the UN Security Council, and the West has imposed unprecedented strict economic sanctions on Russia, which has a certain economic scale. It is clear that it is unlikely to return to the previous era, even in the sense that the division of the world is rather fixed or prolonged. "
Q. What have you been unable to do or lack in the last 30 years?
"I think it's about building an international order from a long-term perspective. If the West is caught up in short-term thinking after the end of the Cold War and concentrates on how to defeat the enemy in front of it, defeat it. When the world becomes rosy, I think it's simply a repeat of a "utopian" vision. "
"For example, in Afghanistan, the Soviet invasion had ended, but the West almost ignored it, and eventually it became a Taliban-controlled area, becoming the home of Islamic extremist al-Qaeda, and terrorism. In 2001, the 9/11 simultaneous terrorist attacks took place in the fight against terrorism led by the United States, and the world supported it for at least a period of time, but as a result, in Afghanistan. From the military operation of the United States, the United States chose to invade Iraq and divided the international community. At that time, Russia was shortly after the appearance of Putin, but the West looked at various problems of Putin. By crushing it, we positioned it in the form of an "allied ally in the fight against terrorism" and rather deepened our cooperation. "
"In 2008, there was the Beijing Olympics in China, and just before that, Russia had a territorial dispute and a war with Georgia, but in the West, especially the United States is struggling with the war against terrorism. Instead of going deep into the problems of China and Russia, we prioritized those who responded to the global economic crisis after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and as a result, huge monopoly such as the Xi Jinping administration and the current Putin administration. I think it means that I overlooked the growth of the target nation. "
"The exclusion of major Russian banks from the SWIFT this time has been considered to be a huge deal before that. Basically, we did what was even said to be a forbidden person. While it is true that Russia's invasion is serious and there is legitimacy to counter it, the result is the "blocking of the world economy" that the West has so far wanted to avoid. "Is starting to happen in reality, and China and other countries cannot trust the Western-led world economic system when they see the attitude of the West like this time, and when it comes to it, it is a political weapon by the West. I think you recognized that it was used as
"Historical imagination in a large amount of information"
Q. What is this war facing the world and us, and what do we have to face in the future?
"I think that what happened in the past is the most valuable reference material. I think that it is not just looking back on the past, but what is needed is the imagination in anticipation of the present age. In the age of information civilization, we already get a lot of information about this war every day. The brain is exhausted just by processing that information, and it comprehensively captures the bigger situation. I think we are lacking in imagination and thinking about what the consequences will be. We have the opportunity to have a deep discussion about what choices we should make in the long run for a better future. I think it's declining worldwide. "
Q. Finally, what do you think about Japan's future position?
"I think it is important for Japan to not bring about a new division in the Indo-Pacific region as a result of this war. It is important how close we can build relationships with countries other than the United States and China. This time, I participated in NATO's foreign ministers' meeting as one of the G7 countries on the issue of Ukraine and stepped up relations with Europe, but at the same time, I have relations with Australia and India in the Indo-Pacific. Also, Southeast Asia. I think that it is the current trend in Japan that we are looking for more in-depth relationships with countries in Africa and the Middle East, but we have further strengthened that trend. It is necessary to create a diplomatic and security system that does not depend too much on the United States and China, including the economy. "
"The history of mankind is not as simple as" if it is right, it will bring good results. "It takes thinking power to connect it to the results, and Japan is more grounded and more calm. I think we need a lot of discussion. "