Researchers have warned of Iraq’s desire for a population explosion in the coming years, with a steady increase in population numbers in a country that still depends on oil sales revenues to finance up to about 95% of expenditures, while the Iraqi Ministry of Planning underestimated the importance of this increase, and said that it slight and normal.

According to the ministry's estimates, the country's population reached 41 million and 190 thousand people in 2021, up from 40 million and 150 thousand people in the previous year.

The forecasts of the Central Statistics Agency of the Ministry of Planning indicate that the country's population will reach 50 million and 200 thousand people by 2030.

These expectations raise fears that Iraq is on the verge of a population explosion that may have many negative repercussions on the country's economy and the living situation of the population.

These fears are driven by the economic reality of the country, which is considered rentier, and depends almost entirely on revenues from oil sales to secure state expenditures, with the collapse and deterioration of a large part of the infrastructure for public services and vital sectors such as industry and agriculture, as a result of decades of war and political and security instability.

population boom

The researcher in Iraqi economic affairs, Duraid Al-Shaker Al-Anzi, said that "births for the year 2021 are considered in Iraq an unprecedented boom," and he expected that "Iraq will witness a population explosion if this rate of births continues."

Al-Enezi added that "government solutions to this file do not exist," explaining that "these annual increases and the lack of a supportive economy for them and their families will turn the Iraqi individual into a breadwinner for more than 5 people, and thus the economy will turn into excessive consumption without any possibility of financial accumulation; any consumption from the hand." to the mouth."

He pointed out that "the government is unable to provide milk for newborns and their mothers before and after birth, so how will this generation arise, with what health, and with what ability to work and produce."

The average family size in Iraq is 5.7 individuals, according to the Ministry of Planning figures for the year 2021.

And the numbers announced by the Ministry of Planning are not accurate, because Iraq has not conducted an official population census since 1997.

Over the past 15 years, the political forces did not agree to conduct the census, which is the basis for distributing wealth in the country, drawing development plans, evaluating their results, and setting the correct plans for reconstruction.

Among the most prominent problems that hinder the conduct of this census: The existing dispute between the Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Regional Government over control of the areas subject to Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution, or what is known as the disputed areas, perhaps the most prominent of which is the oil-rich Kirkuk governorate.

Al-Hindawi considered that the slight increase in the number of births last year was within the normal limits (Al-Jazeera)

natural increase

For his part, the spokesman for the Ministry of Planning, Abdul-Zahra Al-Hindawi, underestimated the importance of the continuous increase in the number of population in the country, and said that "the slight increase in the number of births last year is within the normal limits, explaining that" the increase comes within the natural pattern;

The population of Iraq has exceeded 41 million, according to the ministry's statistics.

Al-Hindawi added, "20 million Iraqis are between the ages of 15 and 50, and they are in the reproductive stage, and therefore the increase is normal."

And regarding Iraq's ability to absorb the continuous increase, Al-Hindawi explained that "the ministry has drawn up plans regarding the expected increase and the possibility of absorbing it across the health and educational system and others."

He concluded his speech by saying that "by implementing the plans set by the ministry, which include specialized committees, the increasing numbers can be controlled and contained."

Iraq is the second largest producer of crude oil in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) after Saudi Arabia, with an average production of 4.6 million barrels per day under normal conditions.

The steady increase in population will put pressure on revenues from the sale of oil, with the weakness of other productive sectors and the country's need for a lot of money to restore dilapidated infrastructure.

massive work

The Iraqi economist, Ahmed Saddam, said that "the increase in the population requires taking economic plans to transform the impact of this into positive aspects," explaining that "a rise in the population can contribute to increasing economic growth, but on the condition that the supporting ingredients are provided, so in order to convert it into energy. economic rather than negatively impacting.

The Iraqi expert added that "planning decision-makers are required to increase the number of schools in a manner equivalent to the number of entrants to them annually, as well as to increase the level of health institutions and related services according to well-studied plans."

It also requires improving the reality of urban planning and building residential complexes by facilitating procedures and creating competition between companies in order to advance this sector, especially since the housing problem is still present, and the shortage of housing units is estimated at 4 to 5 million housing units.

Saddam pointed to "the importance of activating policies that can stimulate economic diversification of non-oil projects in order to create job opportunities and gradually to meet the numbers of people entering the labor market, and this means giving a greater role to the local and foreign private sector, in order to move the related economic activities."

And he indicated that "the population increase also means an increase in demand for foodstuffs, as well as other commodities, and this should push economic plans towards improving the reality of the agricultural sector, as well as the manufacturing sector, because otherwise, the level of consumer imports will rise significantly in the future and constitute a burden." greater than the state budget.

The Iraqi government had to intervene recently when the prices of food commodities began to rise in the local markets, driven by the Russian war on Ukraine.

Baghdad has taken a number of decisions to mitigate the impact of high prices on the vulnerable classes of the low-income and the unemployed, including the distribution of cash and zero customs duties on imported foodstuffs, and the lifting of subsidies on local goods by opening the door to importing all food, construction and medicine commodities.

The unemployment rate in Iraq is 27%, while the poverty rate is 31.7%, according to the latest statistics of the Ministry of Planning.