While the expected Russian offensive in the Donbass began on Monday April 18, Russia, which announced on March 25 that it now intended to focus its efforts on the east of the country, has been stepping up its operations in this war zone since 2014. , and part of which is controlled by pro-Russian separatists.  

"This new phase of the war was announced", emphasizes General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the UN, guest of the Debate of France 24. "After having had several axes of attack for four weeks including especially kyiv and Kharkiv and having suffered setbacks, the Russian army decided to concentrate on the Donbass, which strategically is understandable." 

However, the question that arises, according to him, is whether the Russians have the means to break through the Ukrainian defense and circumvent it.

"That's the fundamental question," said the general.

Time is running out for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who hopes for a major success in Ukraine before May 9, the anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, and the traditional military parade organized each year on this occasion in Red Square. in Moscow.  

"Russian General Alexander Dvornikov, who was recently appointed head of all the armed forces engaged in Ukraine, has only two and a half weeks ahead of him to accomplish his mission, that is, to achieve a victory before May 9, it's quite short," said General Dominique Trinquand.

Dubbed "the butcher of Syria" by US general and former CIA chief David Petraeus, Alexander Dvornikov is known for spearheading Russia's heavy bombing strategy in Syria.

His reputation as a soldier ready to do anything to achieve his ends makes people fear the worst in eastern Ukraine.

A Ukrainian army prepared since 2014

A "rather short" time, while the Ukrainian army does not intend to let it go in the Donbass.

"No matter how many Russian soldiers are brought here, we will fight," President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

"We will defend ourselves."  

According to experts, Ukrainian soldiers are able to thwart the Kremlin's plans in the east of the country.

"Since 2014, the Ukrainian army - which knows this whole region by heart - has been preparing for this front, which explains why the Russians advanced in the east from the Crimea and not from the Donbass", underlines the former head of the French military mission to the UN.

“If at the beginning of the invasion, the Russian army advanced quite quickly and conquered areas in southern Ukraine, in the Donbass on the other hand, it took very little territory. was not even able to take Marinka and Avdiivka, which are satellite towns of Donetsk and which have remained in Ukrainian hands since 2014", recalls Gulliver Cragg, France 24 correspondent in kyiv.

"The Russian forces shelled them very intensely, but they are unable to advance, which speaks volumes about the preparedness of the Ukrainians in this area to deal with the attacks."

In this new phase of the war, Dominique Trinquand explains that the Russian soldiers will therefore find themselves facing Ukrainian positions "extremely well prepared for eight years, that is to say buried and concreted with fire plans, positions spares, reinforcement capabilities and to mount a counter-attack against enemy positions".  

"The decentralization of the fight is the key"

The general explains that there are currently two Russian maneuvers in progress to take the Donbass in a pincer movement, so as to reduce the Donbass pocket.

"One is to frontally attack the Ukrainian defense from east to west on three axes. If one of these axes ends up allowing a breakthrough, the Russians will send reserves and reinforcements there," he said. -he.

"The second is to enclose the Ukrainian forces and cut them off from the reinforcements arriving from the west, this is the maneuver that starts from Izium, in the east, and descends towards the south, so as to enclose the fine flower of the Ukrainian army which has been there since 2014 and which has very prepared positions and a lot of armaments." 

The front is on April 19, 2022. © France 24

However, the Ukrainians did not remain spectators in the face of these maneuvers.

"In recent days, the Ukrainian army launched a counter-attack in the Kharkiv region which cut off the rear of the Russian columns which were advancing towards the Donbass", continues General Dominique Trinquand.

“It is the preferred strategy of the Ukrainians which consists in cutting off the Russian forces from their logistics. These, once deprived of fuel or ammunition, stop dead where they are, unable to go further. "

According to him, "the decentralization of the fight is the key for the Ukrainians" whose army has shown a certain adaptability and pragmatism on the battlefield.

“Being able to decide and carry out your fight once you are in an area and know what effect you want to achieve when the Russian army is extremely centralized and rolls out its resources like a steamroller. "

Finally, in order to be able to defend the Donbass, Western military aid could partly balance the fight.

"We must remember that the aid provided to Ukraine dates back to 2014, whether in the form of training or equipment. And if the Ukrainian army is very courageous, it must be recognized today, it is also because it has been trained and equipped", concludes the general.

"Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, arms deliveries continue to arrive in the country, but we must not forget all the other support such as intelligence and satellite images provided by the West, which are at least as important as the weapons and which allowed the Ukrainians to score points." 

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