Analysis
Can the debate between Macron and Le Pen be decisive?
Four days before the second round, even if the polls regularly give Emmanuel Macron the winner between 53 and 56%, the debate can have important consequences.
AP - Francois Mori
Text by: Anthony Lattier Follow
3 mins
In a few hours, this April 20, 2022, the debate between the two rounds of the French presidential election will take place.
As in 2017, it opposes Marine Le Pen to Emmanuel Macron.
The two candidates have stopped their field campaign to prepare for this long-awaited meeting.
For the moment, Emmanuel Macron is given as the favorite of the second round but in a much narrower way than last time.
Can this debate reverse the trend?
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The impact of televised debates has been studied for a long time and in several countries.
General conclusion: they have a limited effect on the vote.
More often than not, they are shown to confirm viewers' pre-established judgments.
Few voters decide - after a debate - to change their vote from one candidate to another.
Especially since at this stage of the campaign, their choice is often already made.
A strong impact in 2017
But recent history leads us to qualify this general trend.
An analysis, published in
History of an electoral revolution (2015-2018)
under the direction of Bruno Cautrès and Anne Muxel, shows that the presidential election of 2017 is an exception to the rule.
The voting intentions were indeed modified after the debates of the primary of the right (for the benefit of François Fillon) and after the debates of the first round (for the benefit of Jean-Luc Mélenchon).
The debate between two rounds between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron also had an effect on the dynamics of the campaign.
The candidate of the National Rally missed her passage, she appeared aggressive on the form and not very competent on the substance: this debate cost her at least 3 points when we look at the evolution of voting intentions.
This poor performance accentuated the dynamic in favor of Emmanuel Macron by demobilizing part of the electorate of Marine Le Pen.
► To read again: The highlights of the great debate between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen
High rate of indecision
If the 2022 debate is important, it is also because the difference in votes in the voting intentions is much lower than in 2017. Emmanuel Macron is given the winner collecting between 54 and 56% of the voting intentions while he won with 66% of the vote 5 years ago.
Added to this is the fact that the level of abstention and the rate of indecision are high: "
There are more and more French people who do not have strong partisan identifications, who do not trust men politicians and therefore tend to vote by rejection rather than by membership
, explains Arnaud Mercier, professor of political communication at the French press institute.
This rather vague and floating universe of reference means that a debate, if ever one of the two were to fail, can lead to a change in opinion of 2, 3 or 4 points of loss or gain for the one of the candidates
.
Nothing is therefore acquired for the president-candidate who must try not to demobilize the left-wing voters who are preparing to vote for him with great reluctance.
"
If ever Emmanuel Macron fueled by his attitude the movement of instinctive rejection that he arouses among some of Jean-Luc Mélenchon's voters, there is a chance that some will not want to vote for the president-candidate despite calls for to block the far right
”, warns Arnaud Mercier.
► To read: Presidential election in France: these key moments which marked 50 years of debates between the two rounds
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Presidential France 2022
France
French politics
Emmanuel Macron
Marine Le Pen
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