With the Russian offensive in the Donbass, which has now apparently begun, the Ukraine war is entering a new, possibly decisive phase.
After the defeat in Kyiv, Putin cannot afford another setback.
Should he not be able to assert himself in the east of the country again, then his campaign would have failed for the time being.
However, if he could expand the two separatist areas and establish a permanent land connection with Crimea, then for the first time since the war began he would have something he could present as a victory, primarily to the home crowd.
However, a quick decision is unlikely.
According to Western assessments, the Russian military has learned from the mistakes in the north;
due to the terrain, a lengthy field battle is now expected.
Ukraine has a lot of experience from the trench warfare that has been waged in Donbass over the past eight years, but will no doubt continue to depend on Western military aid.
The American government has already adapted to the new situation with the latest shipments of weapons, including howitzers.
The Chancellor is hesitant
Germany is struggling with this.
The debate has been dominated for days by loud calls for heavy weapons, some of which have come from people who were not known to be arms advocates before February 24th.
The chancellor, on the other hand, who likes to boast of his leadership qualities, is hesitant.
Viewed soberly, two aspects need to be considered: On the one hand, the already poorly equipped Bundeswehr must remain operational;
no one knows whether the war might not spread west after all.
On the other hand, the NATO countries should act as coordinated as possible, if only to give Moscow no opportunity to split.
Even the allies do not grant Kyiv every wish.
A good rule of thumb is: what America can deliver, Germany can also deliver.