In the first quarter of this year, the economic report card was released, and the innovative development trend continued
4.8%: Open the door steadily
"The first quarter of the national economy had a generally stable start." On April 18, at a press conference on the operation of the national economy in the first quarter, Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, said.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics: According to preliminary calculations, China's GDP in the first quarter of 2022 was 27,017.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% at constant prices, and a month-on-month increase of 1.3% compared with the fourth quarter of 2021.
When looking at the economic performance in the first quarter, it is necessary to look at China's development in the context of the century-long changes in the world, look at China's economic changes from the long-term historical development cycle, and look at local fluctuations from the overall situation of national development. It is necessary to look at it in combination with the judgment of the whole year, and it must be linked with the goals and tasks of the economic work throughout the year, keep a calm and objective analysis, and not only see the positive aspects, but also face up to the existing problems.
In the face of the increasingly complex and severe international environment and the multiple challenges brought about by the frequent outbreak of domestic epidemics, China's economy has risen to the challenge and got off to a stable start.
Stability is the top priority, and the overall performance of China's economy in the first quarter is within a reasonable range
Since the beginning of this year, the international situation has become more complex and severe, and the domestic epidemic has also shown the characteristics of multiple, widespread and frequent occurrences, and the impact on economic operation has increased.
The general situation of China's economy has attracted the attention of all parties.
"In general, my country's economy continued to recover and developed in the first quarter, and the overall operation was within a reasonable range." Fu Linghui said.
To measure whether the economic operation is in a reasonable range, it mainly depends on the macro indicators of economic growth, employment, prices, and international payments.
According to Fu Linghui, from the perspective of growth, my country's economy continued to maintain an expansion trend. In the first quarter, the GDP increased by 4.8% year-on-year, which was 0.8 percentage points higher than that in the fourth quarter of the previous year, and a month-on-month increase of 1.3%.
In terms of employment, despite the impact of the epidemic, the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas across the country increased in March, but in general, the overall stable employment pattern has not changed.
In the first quarter, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.5%, basically the same as the same period of the previous year.
In terms of prices, the supply of goods and services in the market was generally sufficient, and consumer prices rose moderately.
In the first quarter, consumer prices rose by 1.1% year-on-year.
In terms of the balance of payments, the surplus in trade in goods expanded, the deficit in trade in services narrowed, foreign exchange reserves remained stable at around US$3.2 trillion, and the balance of payments remained stable.
"The structural analysis of the data in the first quarter reflects the characteristics of seeking progress while maintaining stability." Dong Yu, executive vice president of the China Development Planning Institute of Tsinghua University, analyzed that from the perspective of supply, in the first quarter, the added value of industries above designated size nationwide A year-on-year increase of 6.5%; from January to February this year, 22 of the 41 major categories of industries in my country achieved a year-on-year increase in profits or reduced losses, and 15 of them achieved a profit growth rate of more than 10%.
From the perspective of demand, in the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.3% year-on-year, the investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) increased by 9.3% year-on-year, and the total import and export of goods increased by 10.7% year-on-year.
"The economic performance in the first quarter has attracted much attention, mainly related to the expectations of economic development. According to the deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference, the economic work in the first quarter was carried out in an orderly manner, and the economic operation was generally stable. Even if there are some unexpected situations that exceed expectations , still insisted on the stability of the word, and responded effectively." Dong Yu said.
"When looking at the economic data of the first quarter, we must comprehensively grasp the theoretical logic, historical logic and practical logic of my country's entry into a new development stage. From the starting point of the new development stage, affected by internal and external factors, my country's economic operation will fluctuate, but the development of The general trend and direction will not change, and high-quality development is still the fundamental requirement for determining development ideas, formulating economic policies, and implementing macro-control at present and in the future. Against such a macro background, we look at the economic growth of this quarter. Performance, we must insist on looking at China from the world, from the overall situation, and never look at the present.” Liu Xiangdong, deputy director of the Macroeconomic Research Department of the China International Economic Exchange Center, analyzed that according to the government work report, the annual economic growth target is expected to reach about 5.5%. .
Now, under the action of the policy, the economy has maintained a growth rate of 4.8% in the first quarter, and the overall operation is within a reasonable range.
Industrial development is moving more towards mid-to-high end, and the trend of innovation and development continues
Economic development depends not only on aggregate data, but also on structural data; it depends on both fundamentals and new changes.
Industrial development is moving more towards the mid-to-high end, and the trend of innovation and development continues, which is an important feature of China's economy in the first quarter.
Data show that in the first quarter, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year-on-year.
The added value of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increased by 14.2% and 8.1%, respectively, 7.7 and 1.6 percentage points faster than that of industries above designated size.
"We can see that in industrial production, high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing have maintained rapid growth, and their supporting role for the industry has been increasing. Among industrial investment, investment in high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing has maintained rapid growth. Growth." Fu Linghui said in this analysis that the driving mode of economic growth driven by industrialization and urbanization has changed a lot compared with the past.
The output of steel and cement has declined, but industrial production has maintained rapid growth, mainly because the driving force of economic development has changed a lot compared with the past, and now industrial development is more towards the mid-to-high end.
New industries continue to grow, new models and new formats continue to grow.
The data shows that in the first quarter, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 8.8% year-on-year, and continued to grow on the basis of a high base, accounting for 23.2% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods; my country's new energy vehicles and solar cells The output increased by 140.8% year-on-year respectively. and 24.3%; the rapid development of 5G network, information technology, and artificial intelligence technology has also spawned new industrial growth points.
"In general, with the development of China's economy in recent years, it has transformed from high-speed growth in the past to high-quality development, and the driving force of economic growth has also changed compared with the past." Fu Linghui said.
"The 'Four New Economy', that is, the rapid growth of new technologies, new industries, new business forms and new models, strongly supports the sustained and stable recovery of the current national economy and the accelerated construction of a new development pattern." Guo Liyan, Director of the Comprehensive Situation Research Office of the China Academy of Macroeconomics According to the introduction, in 2021, 3.838 million new enterprises will be established in my country's "Four New Economy", a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, accounting for 42.5% of the total number of newly established enterprises.
Investment in my country's high-tech manufacturing and service industries has accelerated significantly, especially in enhancing the independent and controllable capabilities of the industrial chain and supply chain and promoting the reconstruction of the industrial base. The output of new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and integrated circuits has increased rapidly. quick.
Driven by new business formats and new models, online retail sales of physical goods maintained double-digit growth, while creating more employment choices for young people.
In recent years, the development of online retail, live streaming, sharing economy, etc., has led to the increase of new jobs.
"From the data of the first quarter, China's economy has not only achieved reasonable growth in quantity, but also achieved steady improvement in quality." Liu Xiangdong analyzed that this is related to the continuity and sustainability of my country's policies, and the need for short-term stable growth is not Instead of sacrificing medium- and long-term development, we effectively take into account the needs of short-term economic fluctuations and medium- and long-term stable and healthy development through comprehensive measures.
Looking into the future, the new momentum of my country's economic development will continue to grow, and new technologies, new industries, new business forms and new models will accelerate growth, injecting new vitality into China's economy.
The pick-up in investment growth reflects the effective implementation of the policy of first-in-class efforts
Affected by the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectations, China's economy is currently facing downward pressure, and domestic demand is still the main driving force for economic development.
Expansion of domestic demand requires consumption and investment. However, under the influence of the epidemic, consumption has been greatly impacted.
The pick-up in investment growth is a major highlight of the current Chinese economy.
Data show that in the first quarter, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 9.3% year-on-year.
In terms of different fields, infrastructure investment increased by 8.5% year-on-year, manufacturing investment increased by 15.6%, and real estate development investment increased by 0.7%.
In terms of different industries, investment in high-tech industries increased by 27.0%, of which investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech service industries increased by 32.7% and 14.5% respectively.
The investment in the social field increased by 16.2%, of which the investment in health and education increased by 23.8% and 17.2% respectively.
Infrastructure is the foundation and guarantee of economic and social development, and plays a strategic, fundamental and leading role.
Promoting the steady growth of infrastructure investment is of great significance for effectively hedging the downward pressure on the economy and improving the efficiency and quality of economic operation.
Carrying out infrastructure investment moderately ahead of time is one of the important measures to expand domestic demand at present.
This year, my country will solidly promote the implementation of 102 major engineering projects in the 14th Five-Year Plan, refine the list of engineering projects, and clarify specific measurable and assessable tasks according to the characteristics of the projects.
Judging from the annual goals put forward by the local two sessions, as one of the important measures to expand domestic demand, actively and steadily expanding effective investment has become the highlight of stable growth in various regions.
For example, Henan proposed to complete an annual investment of 2.8 trillion yuan in fixed assets, of which 1.8 trillion yuan was invested in projects of more than 100 million yuan; Jiangxi proposed to focus on promoting 3,453 large and medium-sized projects in the province, with an annual investment of more than 1.1 trillion yuan; Zhejiang proposed to do everything possible to expand Effective investment, focusing on the construction of major projects, to achieve effective investment growth of about 6%.
In accordance with the requirements of moderately advanced infrastructure investment, effective investment has been increased in many places around "two new and one heavy". In addition to traditional infrastructure such as "iron public infrastructure", the importance of 5G, data centers, industrial Internet and other new infrastructure has been further highlighted. .
Under the guidance of a moderately advanced infrastructure investment policy, all localities actively promoted the construction of major projects, effectively driving the recovery of infrastructure investment in transportation, water conservancy, energy, and new infrastructure, and enhancing the role of infrastructure investment in driving economic growth.
"The rebound in investment growth not only reflects the effective implementation of the policy of focusing on the front, but also reflects the changes in the investment structure. In particular, the investment in high-tech industries and the people's livelihood areas that make up for shortcomings has shown rapid growth, and its contribution to economic growth has been significantly higher than that in the previous period. Improvement.” Liu Xiangdong analyzed that the high level of investment in high-tech industries fully reflects that my country is accelerating the promotion of innovation and development, focusing on cultivating new technologies, new industries, new formats and new models, and accelerating the transformation of new and old kinetic energy and the optimization of economic structure; the growth of investment in the field of social and people’s livelihood To meet the people's ever-growing needs for a better life, increasing investment in areas such as ecological environmental protection, medical care, elderly care, and childcare education highlights my country's implementation of the people-centered development concept, and puts the protection of people's lives and health as a more prominent priority. Location.
The expansion of domestic demand is inseparable from the synergy of investment and consumption.
Since last year, my country has introduced a series of policies and measures to promote consumption, and the effect has continued to show.
In the first quarter, consumption continued to grow. The Spring Festival effect and the Winter Olympics effect released some consumption, and the proportion of online consumption continued to rise.
In the next step, on the basis of promoting the reasonable growth of investment, we must further unleash the potential of consumption, and form a benign interaction that promotes effective investment and consumption upgrading.
From the perspective of the whole year, my country's economy is expected to maintain the momentum of recovery and development
Against the backdrop of repeated global epidemics and sluggish world economic recovery, the development trend of China's economy bucking the trend is commendable.
On April 14, BMW Brilliance released a major news that the product upgrade project of Dadong Factory was officially opened.
At the end of March, the BMW Group announced the launch of the new BMW X5 model in the Chinese market.
In February, the multinational company increased its stake in BMW Brilliance from 50% to 75% by increasing its capital by 27.9 billion yuan, and extended the cooperation period with Chinese partners to 2040.
In the first quarter of this year, the actual use of foreign capital across the country reached 379.87 billion yuan, achieving a high growth rate of 25.6% year-on-year.
During the same period, the actual use of foreign capital in the eastern, central and western regions of China increased by 23.4%, 60.7% and 21.9% respectively year-on-year; 21 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) across the country achieved double-digit growth in actual use of foreign capital.
Investing usually takes into account medium and long-term factors.
Whether it is a continuous capital increase or a new layout, behind the foreign investment trends, they reveal their firm confidence in the long-term sound fundamentals of the Chinese economy.
According to Fu Linghui, since the beginning of this year, the international situation has been turbulent, the global epidemic has spread, geopolitical conflicts have intensified, external instability and uncertainty have increased, domestic epidemics have spread frequently, some unexpected factors have exceeded expectations, and the downward pressure on the economy has increased. big.
From the perspective of the whole year, my country's economy is expected to maintain the momentum of recovery and development.
"The fundamentals of my country's long-term economic growth have not changed, the situation of sustained economic recovery has not changed, and the characteristics of great development potential, sufficient resilience, and wide space have not changed. my country has the conditions and ability to stabilize the macroeconomic market." Liu Xiangdong analyzed that my country still has Economic development resilience and strong market vitality, from the perspective of economic development, my country's economy still has a relatively high potential growth rate, especially accelerating the implementation of the innovation-driven development strategy, continuously improving infrastructure, and effectively increasing total factor productivity, driven by endogenous power The economy has recovered to near the level of potential output.
At the same time, China has more than 150 million market entities, and the number of active new market entities continues to increase. The people's growing and better life needs to promote the continuous optimization and upgrading of supply, so that the domestic economy can be effectively circulated; China has the potential of super-large market demand and huge For the middle-income group, as residents' income keeps growing at the same pace as GDP, the strong consumption potential released from this will effectively support the rapid economic growth. The final consumption expenditure in the first quarter contributed nearly 70% to economic growth; China has A relatively complete industrial system and continuous promotion of industrial transformation and upgrading. During the impact of the epidemic, China took the lead in preventing and controlling the epidemic and promoting the resumption of work and production, becoming a "stabilizer" to ensure the smooth flow of the global industrial chain and supply chain; Unleashing more institutional innovation dividends, and accelerating the construction of an efficient, standardized, fair competition, and fully open national unified market in the near future is to break the institutional and institutional barriers to market segmentation, smooth the domestic economic cycle, and stimulate the vitality of market players; China has a gradually mature market. Economic governance capacity. In coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the Chinese government has demonstrated mature and powerful macroeconomic control capabilities, and timely implemented a policy mix of counter-cyclical adjustment and cross-cyclical design to effectively promote stable and healthy economic development.
China's economy has developed despite the ups and downs, and has grown stronger in response to challenges.
We must comprehensively, objectively, rationally and dialectically view the current economic situation, continue to consolidate the foundation of "stability", accumulate the strength of "advance", hold the bottom line of "guarantee", do our own affairs well, and promote the Chinese economy to ride the wind and waves, and move forward steadily.
Our reporter Han Yadong