(International Observation) Prospects for the second round of French presidential elections: Can Macron be successfully re-elected?

　　China News Agency, Paris, April 18 Question: Prospects for the second round of French presidential elections: Can Macron be successfully re-elected?

　　China News Agency reporter Li Yang

　　There is only a week left until the second round of voting in the 2022 French presidential election on April 24.

French President Emmanuel Macron and far-right party "National League" candidate Marine Le Pen have won the first round of voting on the 10th, and the two will enter the final showdown in the second round of voting.

Whether Macron can defeat Le Pen in the second round of voting and be re-elected is widely regarded as the biggest highlight of the election.

On April 10, local time, an electronic screen in Paris, France, showed the preliminary results of the first round of the 2022 French presidential election.

Economic and people's livelihood issues become the focus of the election

　　During Macron's presidency, the French economy has generally withstood the test of the new crown epidemic. The economic growth rate is better than that of Germany. The unemployment rate has dropped to the lowest level in the past 10 years. The overall economic trend is basically stable. This economic report card should have been very helpful. He is running for re-election.

　　However, since the end of February, the rise in energy prices caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to an increasingly prominent inflation problem in France, and the issue of economic and people's livelihood has become the focus of the election.

Ordinary people have begun to pay attention to the rising prices of daily necessities, especially the middle and low-level people are more concerned about purchasing power.

　　Le Pen responded to the public's concerns about economic issues by proposing measures such as limiting the prices of daily necessities, reducing taxes, and focusing on protecting the French local economy.

Her recent campaign campaign has also revolved closely around economic and people's livelihood issues, seeking resonance with grassroots voters, and is considered by analysts to be a "sensible campaign strategy."

　　However, Le Pen's relevant economic policies are considered to be unsustainable for the French economy, although it may help improve people's livelihood in the short term, but it will bring greater pressure on the French finances in the long run.

At the same time, if Le Pen's economic policies are implemented, France's fiscal deficit is bound to expand further.

　　In the context of increasing pressure on people's livelihood, Macron's proposal to continue to promote the reform of the retirement system is considered a relatively risky move.

He proposed to postpone the retirement age to 65 and reform related systems, which will benefit France's finances in the long run, but short-term pain is likely to be unavoidable and will cause controversy among voters.

Le Pen said he would keep the retirement age at the current 62 in order to avoid the controversy.

　　Macron has realized the potential election impact brought about by the reform of the retirement system, and his stance has been loosened, saying that he will not rule out sending relevant issues to a referendum.

EU issues become the vane of foreign policy

　　Macron and Le Pen's attitudes on EU issues have largely become the vane of their foreign policy.

The two have diametrically opposed positions on the EU. Macron strongly supports the relationship with the EU and expands the EU's strength; Le Pen's "anti-EU" policy remains essentially unchanged, while emphasizing that France's national interests will be placed above the EU.

　　At the beginning of this year to commemorate France's holding of the EU's rotating presidency, the hanging of the EU flag at the Arc de Triomphe in Paris caused controversy, which is enough to illustrate the opposite positions of the two: Macron advocates attaching importance to the EU and supports the hanging of the EU flag on important occasions; Le Pen regards French nationalism as the By, strongly opposed to the EU flag hanging on the Arc de Triomphe.

　　Macron went to Strasbourg, the seat of the European Parliament, to participate in an election campaign in the eastern French city of Strasbourg recently, emphasizing France's important role in the European Union and warning Le Pen's "nationalism" will cause harm to France and the European Union.

Macron has also repeatedly accused Le Pen of trying to "cover up" her true intentions on issues such as the EU.

　　Although Le Pen no longer insists on France's "Brexit", many of her policy propositions are contrary to the current EU policies, such as no longer recognizing that European laws are higher than French domestic laws. 's policies also conflict with the EU's free market policies.

If Le Pen is elected president, it is bound to bring a huge shock to the relationship between France and the European Union, and then affect the current complex international situation.

"Macron's victory over Le Pen" may be difficult to reproduce

　　In the 2017 French presidential election, Macron and Le Pen entered the second round of voting.

At that time, Macron defeated Le Pen with 66.1% of the votes (33.9% of the votes) and was successfully elected president.

Five years later, the two of them are still running for president, and Macron still has the poll lead, but it is widely believed that the 2017 "Macron victory over Le Pen" scene may be difficult to reproduce.

　　According to the latest polls, Macron's approval rate in the second round of voting is 55.5%, and Le Pen's approval rate is 44.5%.

Macron leads Le Pen by about 10 points.

Compared with the same period in 2017, Macron is far ahead of Le Pen by 20 percentage points.

Macron's lead in the polls has narrowed significantly from five years ago.

　　With the far-left party's "Unyielding France" presidential candidate Mélenchon second only to Macron and Marine Le Pen in the first round of voting, how Mélenchon's many supporters vote will directly affect the outcome of the election.

Comprehensive polls show that most Mélenchon supporters are likely to abstain or cast invalid votes, with about a third of Mélenchon supporters expressing a willingness to vote for Macron, and another 16% intending to turn to Le Pen.

　　The abstention rate in the second round of the presidential election five years ago was 25 percent.

It is still difficult for many voters to make judgments, and the abstention rate on the 24th may be higher than five years ago.

Macron and Le Pen will once again start a televised debate before the second round of voting on the 20th, which may help some voters decide who to vote for.

If Macron performs better than Le Pen as he did five years ago, he may be one step closer to his re-election as president.

(Finish)