South Korea and the United States will start the first half of the combined command post training with a 9-day schedule starting tomorrow (18th).
The Joint Chiefs of Staff announced today that "The ROK and the United States have decided to conduct the combined command post training in the first half of 2022 for 9 days starting on the 18th, taking into consideration all circumstances, such as the Corona 19 situation and maintenance of the combined defense posture."
The Joint Chiefs of Staff emphasized that "there is no real military maneuver training," and that "through this exercise, it will be an opportunity to improve the combined operational capability of the ROK and US soldiers and further solidify the combined defense posture."
The ROK and the U.S. plan to strengthen the combined defense posture in preparation for a possible North Korean provocation during the training period.
Prior to the implementation of the main exercise, the ROK and the US held the 'Crisis Management Staff Training' (CMST), a preliminary exercise on the 12th and 15th.
If the crisis management staff training is an exercise to check the process of managing a sudden crisis situation before the outbreak of war, the main training is conducted based on scenarios such as defense (part 1) and counterattack (part 2) assuming a war outbreak. It is a computer simulation-based command post exercise (CPX).
This exercise is drawing attention as it coincides with the '90th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army (Anti-Japanese guerrillas)' (April 25), where North Korea is expected to hold a military parade amid heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
The founding date of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army commemorates the anniversary of the formation of the "Anti-Japanese guerrillas" on April 25, 1932 by President Kim Il-sung.
From 2018, the foundation day has been changed to February 8, but there are speculations that this year will be the 90th anniversary of the founding of the anti-Japanese guerrillas and the 'settlement anniversary' (a year that breaks every 5 or 10 years), so it is expected that the military will try to send a military message through the military parade. is becoming
In particular, the military and intelligence authorities are paying attention to the possibility of unveiling a new multi-warhead intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) or a new medium- and short-range ballistic missile equipped with a new warhead that can be presumed to be loaded with a small nuclear warhead at this military parade ceremony.
In addition, given that North Korea has strongly opposed the ROK-US joint exercise in the past, there is also a prospect that it may launch additional provocations before and after the inauguration of the next government under the pretext of responding to the joint exercise.
This exercise is also the last joint South Korea-US joint exercise to be conducted under the Moon Jae-in government.
Previously, the defense ministers of the South and the United States agreed to conduct a FOC evaluation of the Future Combined Forces Command (FOC) this year for the transition to wartime operational control (OPC) at the Korea-U.S. Security Council (SCM) meeting last year. passed on.
Accordingly, South Korea and the United States are likely to discuss the timing of the FOC again after the inauguration of the Yun Seok-yeol administration.
On the other hand, in the past, the ROK and the US notified the North of the training schedule and nature through the North Korean Army-UNC Command's direct phone line just before the start, but it seems unlikely this time.
At a regular briefing on the 11th, the Ministry of National Defense responded to a question about whether there was a plan to notify the North, saying, "There is no plan to notify so far."
In 2016 and 2017, the ROK-US Combined Forces Command notified the North of the exercise schedule and purpose through a loudspeaker at Panmunjom through the UNC Military Armistice Commission on the day of the announcement of the exercise.