Over 7 weeks of isolation and bombing


The Russian army is largely divided into four military districts: southern, eastern, western, and central.

Among them, the western, eastern and southern forces invaded Ukraine and carried out military operations.

During the eventual withdrawal of Russian troops from various battlefields, including the capital Kiiu and the northern city of Chernikov, the Confederate forces under the infamous General Aleksandr Dvornikov (commander of the Confederate Army and Ukrainian Field Commander) relentlessly raided Mariupol during that period. But it's already been 7 weeks.



As a result of Russia's invasion of Krm and eastern Ukraine in 2014, Russia was able to forcibly annex the Krum Peninsula, and a pro-Russian separatist republic was formed in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine bordering Russia.

For this reason, it explains that the borders of Europe were changed by mobilizing military force for the first time since World War II.



However, if there is a limit (from the Russian point of view), it is that the Khmer Peninsula and the separatist republic are not connected to each other.

Therefore, from the beginning of the invasion, Russia's operation to capture Mariupol was serious, and it became an absolute task after it announced that it would focus its military operations on the eastern Donbas region.


Mariupol's Fortress


Nevertheless, Mariupol was not captured by the Russians.

During the war, Ukrainian President Zelensky personally proposed to the Mariupol National Guard to abandon the city and leave, but the Mariupol National Guard said that it would remain until the end, and it continues to this day.



The industrial park south of Mariupol became the last bastion.

Eastern Ukraine is rich in resources such as coal and iron ore, which makes Ukraine one of the largest exporters of steel in Europe.

(8th largest export volume in the world) There are two factories in the southern part of Mariupol that account for more than a third of Ukraine's steel production: the Illich steel plant and the Azovstal steel plant.

(The company that runs the two factories is Metinvest, which is owned by Linat Akmetov, Ukraine's richest and most oligarchy person)



The scale of these two factories is as great as their steel production. It is said that there is a tunnel that crosses over and reaches a depth of 30 m.

Thanks to this tunnel, you can not be affected by indiscriminate airstrikes by the Russian army, and you can defeat the guerrilla warfare that attacks and hides against the Russian troops who approach the industrial complex.



In some foreign media, it is very cold to the point of freezing in the tunnel, but since Russia's forcible annexation of the Krum Peninsula in 2014, emergency supplies such as food and fuel have been stored inside the tunnel, and now it is evaluated as a fortress. .


Putin's timetable


Mariupol mayor's advisor Petro Andriushenko recently revealed that he plans to hold a military parade after the Russian army has completely captured Mariupol in time for Russia's Victory Day on the 9th of next month.

In other words, the timetable that Russian President Putin wants has come out.



After Russian forces captured Mariupol on D-Day, Putin said, "De-Nazi de-Naziization has succeeded."

However, since the existing air strike method did not have much effect, Russia recently conducted an airstrike on Mariupol using the TU-23M3, a supersonic long-range bomber, for the first time since the invasion of Ukraine.



There are also claims that chemical weapons can be used if the industrial complex cannot be captured in this way.

Military strategy analyst Ole Zdanov also expressed concern that the use of chemical weapons is being discussed as the only way to get the Ukrainian military out of hiding in the industrial complex.


Mariupol at the crossroads


Conversely, if the Ukrainian National Guard survives to the end and protects Mariupol, Russia may lose its momentum for war.

Knowing this, not only NATO, but also the United States is providing Ukraine with military supplies that cannot be compared to those in the early days of the invasion, and they are constantly monitoring Russia's attempts to use asymmetrical forces such as biological and chemical weapons and nuclear weapons.



Nevertheless, if Russia limits its military resources to the eastern region and resumes full-scale airstrikes, the war is expected to be longer and more casualties.

Ukrainian intelligence officials predicted that Russian forces would re-enter the eastern front of the unit responsible for the massacre of civilians in the Bucha region near Kiiu.

Russian massacres against civilians are also likely to be carried out in a more brutal way.



Because of this, Mariupol is at a crossroads.

If, according to Putin's timetable, a parade of Russian troops is held in the captured Mariupol and the war is declared victorious, the world will see the international order that has been well established for more than half a century begin to crumble.

However, if Putin's ambitions are again thwarted in Mariupol following Kiiwu, it could put an end to the great power's atrocities to justify the invasion with sophistry.



(Photo = Getty Images Korea)